Same Game Parlay Picks: Broncos vs. Saints SGP for Thursday Night Football

We're back for more with tonight's Thursday Night Football Primetime Same Game Parlay for the Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints game to kickoff the Week 7 NFL schedule.

The Saints enter this game banged up, missing their top two options in the passing game as Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have been ruled out, as well as deploying rookie QB Spencer Rattler for his second start. Meanwhile we're going for three weeks in a row with a same game parlay cash on TNF, with this one coming at +718 odds.

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+718 Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our Same Game Parlay in Broncos vs. Saints on Primetime, Thursday Night Football.

MORE: Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints Full Game Betting Preview

Leg 1: Foster Moreau Over 1.5 Receptions (+136)

We rarely get a leg with such plus-money value as a go-to pick for our Primetime Parlay, but here we are.

Foster Moreau has seen a target in 4/6 games this year, clearing this number in three of those. He's hauled in all but one of his targets this season, including both that he saw in last week's game with rookie QB Spencer Rattler under center.

Tonight, the Saints are missing their top two WRs, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, as well as jack-of-all-trades TE Taysom Hill. Furthermore, as the backup QB getting the start, Rattler found Moreau on both his looks, including a 41-yard strike to set up an Alvin Kamara touchdown.

Tonight, our model projects Moreau with a 66.0% probability to clear this line, giving us a substantial 23.7% edge against his +136 odds.

Leg 2: Courtland Sutton Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Broncos offense is uninspiring, but someone has to lead it. That someone is Courtland Sutton, who leads by A LOT, relatively anyway.

Sutton has 47 targets this season; the next-most would be running back Javonte Williams. Sutton has nearly 100 yards more than the next receiver Josh Reynolds, and he's over this mark in three of his last four games, twice doing so with just 2 and 3 catches. He has a 20+yard reception in all but one game this year and we love our chunk plays. 

New Orleans has allowed at least two players to clear this receiving line in every game this year, save for the Bryce Young-led Panthers in Week 1.

Our model projects Sutton for 60.6 receiving yards tonight, clearing this mark with a good buffer, as well as a 59.9% probability of clearing 45.5 yards.

Leg 3: Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+230)

As always, we close out with a TD prop, our highest in this game.

Well, it's tied for the highest as Courtland Sutton (41.5% TD probability) and Alvin Kamara (41.3%) lead the game. But there's one very big difference - Kamara is priced at -105 on FanDuel, while Sutton is way out at +230.

Sutton has two touchdowns this year, both coming in his past three games, in which he also cleared his receiving mark in our second leg and the Saints just allowed four passing touchdowns to the Bucs four days ago.

Our fair odds for Sutton would be just +140, identifying an 11.5% edge, and we can even cash both these legs on the same play for a positive correlation.

Same Game Parlay Promo

FanDuel 30% SGP Boost

While we have the best odds displayed for the parlay above, we're also highlighting a sportsbook promo you can use to enhance your experience with this same game parlay.

By using FanDuel's 30% TNF SGP boost, you can take these odds up to +931 for an even juicier payout!

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