Prospector Sam's Nuggets – Premier League and UEFA Champions League Picks

The Prospector returns to give you the best free soccer picks this side of the Atlantic, providing plays on both the Premier League and Champions League action.

I’m gonna be fucking honest with you guys, writing this week felt more like work to me than it has since I started doing this about a year ago. Maybe its some burnout from consistent production for this long on top of a bunch of other things in my life. Maybe it’s the lack of engagement to show that work is actually reaching people. Maybe its just fucking hard to do this and I need to cut myself some slack. But I’ll be damned if I sat down to write this piece and the only thing I could think was “shit, I’d rather go to the driving range than write for a couple of hours.”

But, realistically, that’s the nature of this gig and I knew what I was getting myself into. I write 1 to 2 pieces a week for Dimers that aren’t exactly quick to churn out. And, for better or worse, I take a lot of pride in the writing being coherent and (mostly) free of errors, which adds in some extra time into the equation. Should you feel sorry for me? Absolutely fucking not. Most weeks I love doing this, and it’s a hobby that I couldn’t be happier that I started on a whim last summer. Add that I’ve built up a small (but strong) following, as far as I can tell, and there are things to be pleased with. Oh, and Dimers is looking better and better by the day which means I’ve hitched my wagon to the right horse.

But, at the end of the day, I need to recognize my limits and not stretch myself too thin. I’d rather produce less content at a higher quality than throw out the same amount of work and have it be absolute garbage. So this week, we’re going with the cliff notes version of the weekly blog (if people even know what cliff notes are any more). No nuggets, no cheeky lead in with a bunch of clever and hysterical jokes from yours truly (give me this one, I need it), just some picks for all of you to work with to get your fix until next week. Hopefully by then the pity party I’m hosting for myself will be over and we can all get back to normal. Love, Prospector Sam.

⚽ Premier League Picks

MONEYLINE PARLAY: What? Even in the midst of blog doomsday the Prospector is still able to get creative? You bet your ass I am. Every once in a while, I like to take a shot on a few low value winners to make a parlay that’s worth my time. This week, I’m tossing that option out for all of you so we can string together some boring bets and actually make some money. City will beat the piss out of Palace, and I don’t need to say much more about that. Chelsea should do the same to Fulham, who are basically dead at this point and facing a side who need wins for Champions League matches next year. Arsenal should be able to handle a Newcastle team who are now comfortably in the safe zone and wont have as much to play for. And Spurs, despite their failures, should have enough in them (please, don’t let me be wrong) to handle an inept Sheffield side. The odds on this come out around +362, which is decent for a bunch of top level teams against fairly inferior opponents. Kill a few birds with one stone here and take this parlay to pay out decently for a solid bet.

💰 ML Parlay: Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham (+362)

 

Everton vs. Aston Villa

Neither of these teams have been very good over the last couple of months. For Villa, that basically has meant accepting their fate as a mid-table club. For Everton, that’s meant pissing away a great chance at European football, and placing themselves back in the group of “chasers.” But, despite those hiccups, the Toffees are still in solid position to make the Europa League (or whatever that new competition is), and are in spitting distance of 4^th. While that may be true, though, I don’t know that I love them enough to start throwing money on them to win. They’ve been too inconsistent recently, and simply having “more to play for” doesn’t give me a ton of confidence here. What I do like, however, is the over. Everton know they need to win, and they certainly won’t be sitting back and waiting for the game to come to then. On top of that, Villa have basically given up on playing the disciplined soccer that got them near the top of the table, and are just running around like chickens with their heads cut off. Villa have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 5, and at least 2 in four of their last 5. The wheels have come off a bit (or a lot). The new style of play has helped offensively, since they’ve tallied 7 in their last 4 games, but this is no longer the well-organized (but boring) team we got used to early in the year. All that leads me to goals, especially as Everton push for 3 points from the first whistle, and I think this match ends up being fairly entertaining.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)

 

Man United vs. Liverpool

Considering this is the most important game of the weekend, I won’t leave all of you out in the cold without a pick. I went into this thinking I might take a bit of a shot at Liverpool, who need this game much more than United (who are resigned to the fact that the title chase is over). But Liverpool as a favorite, at just +140, isn’t good enough money to start backing an inconsistent side against the second best team in England. So I’ll skip the line and go with the under. Big games have a tendency to be low scoring, especially as both teams focus on compact defending and preventing mistakes. Neither of these sides will want to concede early, and, when they focus, both have the quality to defend well. I expect you see a lot of risk averse play here, as neither team will push too hard early on to put themselves in a hole, and you’ll get a fairly low scoring game overall. The biggest danger to this bet will be Liverpool exposing themselves too much, since they need the three points desperately, but I don’t expect United will be too lethal offensively, especially after a mid-week Europa Semi. At positive odds, the money is right here too.

💰 Pick Under 2.5 (+102)

 

West Ham vs. Burnley

West Ham deserve far more credit than this. Sure, they probably aren’t quite as good as their place in the table suggests, but they’ve been a consistently strong team all year and sit 10 places ahead of Burnley. Oh, and West Ham are the team with more to play for, which means they are both better AND more motivated. So positive odds on the Hammers here, even at Turf Moor, is wild. Champions League soccer is still within their grasp, and they have enough offensive talent to thrash a shaky back line. That’s bad news for Burnley, who haven’t been doing much defending lately and will struggle to contain everything being thrown at them. I actually expect that West Ham handle this game fairly comfortably, so getting this strong of a payout on the ML feels like a gift. Its probably my favorite bet of the weekend slate.

💰 Pick: West Ham ML (+120)

🏆 Champions League Picks

Man City vs. PSG

PSG may be wondering how they’re behind in this tie. To be fair, so am I. They were looking great in the first leg until De Bruyne scored on a cross and then the Parisians forgot that walls aren’t supposed to move. Now, they head to Machester down a goal and with very little hope of advancing. What’s they play? Well, it burned me last week, but take the under. City know they really don’t have to do much of anything here, aside from not letting PSG score two goals. This is the best defense in the world, arguably, and that shouldn’t be too much of a problem for them. Pep is very aware that it doesn’t matter how you advance, it just matters that you do advance, and he’ll have his side ready to defend hard to prevent PSG from getting many openings. On top of that, I don’t expect City to do much pushing, because putting more bodies forward will leave them exposed to PSG’s lethal counter attack. So I’m betting on a lot of hard, compact defending from the home side and very little noteworthy action overall. And at +142, I think the value is incredible here for the type of game I expect to see. The offensive quality of both teams may give us a bit to sweat about, but as long as we don’t get any early mental lapses I think City suck the life out of PSG defensively and hang on to advance to the final comfortably.

💰 Pick: Under 2.5 (+142)

 

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid

See last week. I will hang on to my “Chelsea to Advance” bet here, which is now at much lower odds than it was when I told you to take it last week.

💰 Pick: Chelsea to Advance. Current Odds (+172), Last Week (-110)

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