Prospector Sam's Nuggets – Premier League and European Soccer Picks

The Prospector is back as he recaps the Super League debacle (so far) before diving into his weekly nuggets and free soccer picks for this week's action.

Well, I’m really glad I didn’t start writing this week’s article on Monday like I normally do. Because, whether I fucking like it or not, this week’s intro has to be about the Super League and everything that happened in soccer, where the story has been changing on a daily basis. Time for a quick recap for all of you:

1- An evil group of rich teams decided to band together and try to take control of European Soccer with a permanent league that would give them all of the revenue

2 - Fans, not happy. Players, not happy. Coaches, not happy. Pretty much anyone but the people making money were not happy.

3 - America gets blamed, since most of the driving forces are American owners. Probably not unfair, we pretend to like meritocracy but our sports leagues say otherwise.

4 - Germany came out looking like they had the moral high ground (maybe the wildest turn of events in this whole thing) until you realized their teams couldn’t join because they’re majority owned by fans. Nice try, Germany.

5 - PSG also didn’t join, probably out of an inherent French fear of conflict and losing battles/wars

6 - Somehow Tottenham was invited. Nobody is quite sure why, other than for comedic purposes.

7 - Mourinho gets fired the next day, a stroke of evil genius from Tottenham’s management to try to appease fans. It didn’t work, but jokes about Mourinho being the only Super League manager ever fired will live on forever

8 - Cracks start showing as domestic leagues and FIFA/UEFA threaten sanctions and prohibiting players from international competition.

9 - FIFA claiming moral high ground tops Germany for wildest turn of events from a previously/continuously evil entity

10 - Chelsea caves. We may all be happy about the Super League dying, but nobody likes a rat/flipper. Classic Chelsea.

11 - City is next, and then the rest of the Premier League tucks t.heir tail between their legs, effectively ending the whole enterprise

12 - United, one of the main architects of the project, fire their Chairman over the failure. Every good train wreck needs a sacrificial lamb.

13 - Somehow Spanish and Italian clubs are still holding hope, probably because they’re so broke they have no choice.

So, yeah, that’s where we’re at. In all honesty, I’ve had so many conflicting emotions that I still don’t really know what to make of it. I, like every other human being, hated the idea, but the only thing worse than the Super League being formed was it being formed without Tottenham. Then the whole thing fell apart, which made me happy but also made me fear for whatever retribution comes. Basically, I’m not sure I’ve made heads or tails of the whole thing yet, other than one simple nugget of truth; people who run massive organizations might be some of the blindest people alive.

I say that because the real mystery here, one that we may never get an answer to, is how they thought this was ever going to work. They made some vague claims about this being good for the sport long-term and a bunch of other lies, but I have absolutely zero fucking clue how they thought fans were going to allow this to happen. Basically, they tried to cripple the entire foundation of the sport and upend the entire European system for the benefit of a small number of teams, and they thought everyone would just roll over? Uhhhhh, so where did you guys buy the drugs and where can I get something that strong? It was a great moment for the power of the little guy that this whole thing came to a halt and we get to return back to normal, but it will surely have more ramifications down the line. What those are, well, your guess is as good as mine. Somehow I have a sinking suspicion that this will blow over for some teams and crush the weaker ones. In that light, I fully expect Tottenham to be in League 2 somewhere in the next decade, so I’ll just enjoy things while I can. But thank you to the Super League, for providing me a week of entertainment and a full intro to write. R.I.P., and you will never be forgotten.

Now, time for the nuggets ⤵️

⛏️ Nuggets will be short this week. For one, I already recapped the major event, and two there was a lot of stuff I don’t want to get into

⛏️ I’m willing to generally talk about the idea of sports crossing over into politics, but getting into the deep issues is not something I’m going to do here. That’s not to say its not important, its just not what this character is about

⛏️ Don’t worry though, American culture is doing great. Just look at Jake Paul. A true testament to the American dream, where you can be dumber and more useless than a sack of bricks and still make millions in one night

⛏️ Back to soccer, it was a fairly big weekend. That actually started all the way back on Friday, with Spurs-Everton. Such a different world back then

⛏️ Spurs took a lead (again), and blew it (again). This time, they managed to salvage a draw, but they didn’t really deserve it.

⛏️ It’s extremely rare for me to say this, but I have no problem with Harry Kane bailing on this team. He goes out and leads the league in goals AND assists, but we’re still in 7^th. He’s given this club everything he can and then some, but we just aren’t good enough for him. Sad, but true.

⛏️ Picks started off strong this week with another easy win on a West Ham over. That write up was as close to me saying something is a lock as you’ll ever see. Glad that one hit, and that I still have my kidney.

⛏️ Sheffield were officially relegated. Good bye. See you never.

⛏️ Oh, and a shoutout to Shalke, who also got relegated this weekend. Going from the Champions League to a -2 gold difference PER GAME in the span of 2 years is insane. It’s also amazing for me, because I have a friend who we constantly make fun of for “killing teams” he roots for. Guess who he chose to support last April when the Bundesliga was the first one to start up...

⛏️ That Arsenal game was incredible, and had so many talking points I don’t know where to begin. I guess I’ll start with “I lost,” because that was unfortunate. Based on the game, though, I don’t really feel that bad about it. I’m honestly still not sure how Arsenal didn’t win.

⛏️ What a soul crushing moment for Fulham. You could see the life sucked out of Scotty Parker’s dreamy, beautiful eyes when that equalizer went in. The good news for him is, modeling gigs are probably lining up.

Scottie Parker looks like a fucking GQ model on the sideline. Does he know he’s a manager? Or is he auditioning for modeling gigs post Fulham relegation?

— Prospector Sam ⛏️ (@prospector_sam) April 18, 2021

⛏️ Oh, and VAR. We got not one, but TWO, VAR calls that came down to centimeters. I’m a fairly big advocate for VAR on offsides, because it’s a hard rule (unlike fouls). Its either off or its not. But if you don’t like it, Saturday gave you all the ammo you could ever need

⛏️ United came through with the over for me late on. I was really hoping it would be Burnley to steal the cover, but you wont see me complain about winning.

⛏️ Leeds, you beautiful bastards. An 86^th minute equalizer in the first game after the Super League announcement, and a nice +168 winner for anyone who tailed me.

⛏️ And Brighton followed it up with a draw that sucked the life out of Chelsea. I honestly have no idea how Chelsea can be this bad on offense. Credit to Tuchel for solidifying the back line, but you cant win if you don’t score

⛏️ TOTTENHAM IS BACK BABY!!! What a comeback to take 3 points, and we’re just 2 off of 4^th. Ryan Mason not only became the youngest PL manager ever, but also has as many victories when down at half for Spurs as Mourinho did.

Tottenham had won 0 games when down at half in the Prem under Mourninho.... Ryan Mason, check mate

— Prospector Sam ⛏️ (@prospector_sam) April 21, 2021

⛏️ City played another bizarre game. They gave up a goal 20 seconds in (shout out to my Villa under 0.5 goals bet), took the lead back, then got a red all in the first 45 minutes. Villa, as usual, managed to fuck it up though and gave the advantage right back with a red of their own in the second half, and the title race officially died.

⛏️ West Brom are also effectively dead. Going down 3-0 in the first half is generally not going to help you survive relegation.

⛏️ We also had the FA cup semis. Chelsea-City was a great game, even if it was low scoring. There was no “good outcome” there for me since I hate both clubs, but it was an enjoyable match as a casual spectator. I just have to root hard against Chelsea now.

⛏️ Leicester also handled Southampton, which wasn’t surprising but probably should have been done more convincingly. As always, though, you never know what the fuck you’re going to get from the Foxes

 ⛏️ Nothing too momentous happened in baseball this week, aside from some bad blood starting to boil over between the Padres and Dodgers. Every fan is hoping that keeps up, because their battles this year could be spectacular

⛏️ Oh, and my first baseball bet lost. More appropriately, it missed by a country fucking mile. The Braves won every game in their series with the Cubs but one. It just happened to be the game I bet against them.

⛏️ I’m definitely not going to recap every baseball game, but I will try to keep you appraised of the standings and where things are every once in a while (since you obviously cant just look at them without me, right?)

⛏️ The Red Sox sitting in first is a big surprise to me. This team’s pitching issues haven’t changed at all from last year, but leading the league in runs will do wonders for your record.

⛏️ The AL Central continues to be an absolute guessing game. If you told me any of those 5 teams is going to win the division, I would believe you.

⛏️ On the other hand, if you told me that the Mariners would be at the top of their division at any point this year I would have said you were high. Good for them, but I don’t expect it lasts

⛏️ Speaking of wild, as I write this the 7-6 Mets lead the NL East. I feel like I’m in the fucking twilight zone.

⛏️ I’ve got no clue what to make of the NL Central. Just gonna wait for things to shake out more before diving on that grenade

⛏️ And last, but not least, the Dodgers are good. That about sums it up.

⛏️ I have nothing to say about the NBA or NHL. I follow, but there will be no betting until the playoffs come around. This is my party, I do what I want.

And that’s all we got folks. Now for some picks ⤵️

Carabao/Carling/Chuck-E-Cheese Cup

As you can tell from the above, I could not give less of a fuck about this competition. Forgive me, but there is no pride in winning the “second most important single elimination domestic trophy” known formally as the Carabao Cup (or whatever it is now, the sponsor changes every couple of years when they realize they’re just wasting money). The only reason I’m giving it a second of my time is because Tottenham are playing in it, so I feel obligated to at least pay attention. If you think I’ll be celebrating and claiming we “won a trophy” if they manage to beat City, though, you are wrong. It actually is a moot point anyway, because Spurs are, in all likelihood, gonna get their doors blow off anyway. The only reason they wouldn’t is because City might rest players in preparation for the UCL semi-final mid week, but even their backups are probably good enough to handle us. So what’s the bet? O-V-E-R. In most cup games you see stiff play and sides trying to limit mistakes due to the importance of the moment. Buttttt, not here. This title doesn’t mean much of anything, and I don’t expect either side to come out playing defensive or cautious football. On top of that, both teams are scoring fairly well right now, and Tottenham’s defense is an absolute nightmare. City’s U21 squad could probably come out and put up 3 on them, so I don’t see how their first team doesn’t put in at least 2. Add on that Spurs will be playing less cautious and more free after the removal of Mourinho (which we saw mid-week), and I don’t see any way they don’t push for goals (and probably grab 1). I’ve been playing this repeat game for a few months with Spurs and the over, and its paid off pretty well for me. No reason to waiver now.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-117)

Premier League Picks

Chelsea-West Ham

This game is such an interesting one. In one corner you have West Ham, who seemingly can’t stop scoring, and in the other you have Chelsea, who can’t score to save their lives but are as good defensively as anyone in the world. The question is, which side blinks. Quite honestly, I think it’s the former. This game is HUGE for both of these clubs. At this point in the season, three points may be the difference between making the Top 4 and missing it, and West Ham have never had a better chance of qualifying for that competition. Even though they’ve been throwing bodies forward and winning with goals, I don’t see them getting as aggressive against Chelsea, knowing they can’t afford to lose this game. Couple that with an already tough Chelsea defense, and goals for the Hammers will be hard to come by. The other side is a bigger concern, but I don’t know how you can be all that confident in this Chelsea offense either. They’ve proven time and again that they have very little offensive class, and if they can’t break down Brighton it’s not all that crazy to expect they’ll struggle against West Ham as well. You can see where this is going, but I think the under is a solid bet here. Neither team sets up to score all that much based on the matchup, and I think you see a tense game that ends either 1-0 or 1-1. Either way, that spells under 2.5, and I’m willing to put my name behind that one comfortably.

💰 Pick: Under 2.5 (-120)

 

Burnley-Wolves

This game is perfect to me for one reason, and one reason only. Burnley have everything to play for, and Wolves have absolutely nothing. Despite some decent performances throughout the year, Burnley haven’t quite escaped the relegation fight and Fulham are just close enough to make this game meaningful. A win pretty much closes the door on that issue for Burnley, but a loss makes things a lot scarier. With that in mind, I’m playing this one one the “hungry dog runs faster” principle and betting Burnley with a draw no bet. Burnley’s defense has been a shell of itself recently, and they’ve lost 3 games in a row. They aren’t a team I’d go betting on based on their overall quality. But come this time of the season, the light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer for teams who have nothing left to fight for, and Wolves are squarely in that spot. They’ve underperformed all year and are left drifting in 12^th place with no chance of much upward movement. Basically, its about time to pack it in and move on to next year. So while Burnley may have issues, they have the advantage as far as a fire under their asses, and their biggest flaw, which has been their defensive issues, isn’t going to be exposed as much against a fairly toothless Wolves side who only score 1 goal a game. All that gives me confidence that Burnley could win, but I like the protection that no-draw gives at the value of the bet. +188 on Burnley there is still a damn strong payout if they pull it out, but doesn’t stretch us too far if the game stalls out and both teams walk away content with a tie.

💰 Pick: Burnley Draw No Bet (+188)

 

Manchester United-Leeds

United are the hottest team in the League. They’ve won 5 straight, and have managed to breath an ounce of life into a title race that looked all but dead a month ago. Now, I still don’t think they have a chance at catching City, but statistically they still can and that’s enough to keep the Devils pushing. Add in the fact that City don’t play this weekend and United will know they absolutely have to win this game to have any chance. And so long as they can pretend that they do have a prayer, I like them to keep this roll going. United have the Europa League semis coming up which will also be a priority, but I don’t expect them to get lazy and give up on the League, especially with their rivals leading the pack. Add in the fact that they’re playing Leeds, who have a habit of bleeding goals, and United will be licking their lips at an opportunity to go out and build some momentum. Leeds aren’t exactly a pushover, but if there’s one team you don’t want to try to get into a track meet with, its United. The Red Devils will give up opportunities, and could concede a goal or two here, but I think they also manage a couple of their own against a spotty Leeds defense. I don’t normally do this, but I’m going with a double play here. Take both United to win AND over 2.5. Neither has great odds, but both are very solid bets to win and not every pick can payout huge money. Take comfortable profit on both (separately), and win two for one here.

💰 Pick: United ML (-125) AND Over 2.5 (-160)

Champions League Picks

Real Madrid-Chelsea

God, I can’t wait for both of these teams to walk out to the Champions League song playing, knowing they tried to mutiny just 10 days prior. In fairness, Real actually still haven’t given up hope on the Super League dream, but that’s probably just because Florentino Perez doesn’t like admitting defeat in anything. Either way, this is a fun matchup and sets up to be fairly even between two solid but flawed teams. I don’t know that I like much of anything in a first leg, but I have a longer term bet I like more here. Take Chelsea to move on. As the adage goes, defense wins championships, and that tends to be especially true in soccer. In these tight games you want to ride the defense that’s going to hold up, since both will have limited chances and offenses will be scrapping for opportunities caused by defensive mistakes. When that’s that case, betting on the team who you expect will make less mistakes is a solid strategy, and Chelsea are better in that regard than Real. The Londoners are getting a bit of an odds boost by having the first leg at home (because that’s generally bad for teams), but I don’t know that they care all that much about that either. They had to play both legs against Porto in Spain and it didn’t seem to bother this side. Real Madrid always get an extra boost from the books based on name alone, but this team isn’t as good as its been in the past and I think they struggle against a strong defensive side. I hate saying it, but I expect Chelsea to move on to the finals here.

💰 Pick: Chelsea to Advance (-110)

 

Manchester City-PSG

This may very well be the actual title bout. Sure, anything can happen in a one game final, but these two appear to be the best situated to walk away from the trophy if they make it there. PSG are always a bit of a question mark because they don’t face a ton of real competition in Ligue 1, but they’ve proven time and again in the last two years they they are every bit as capable as the other top sides in the Champions League. Last year they narrowly missed in the final against Bayern, and they came back and avenged that loss with an extremely strong showing in the quarters to knock out the holders. City, on the other side, are simply just good. They’ve outclassed the entire Premier League this year, and just knocked out a Dortmund team who was as dangerous as anyone in the competition. Basically, these two sides are at the top of their game and this tie sets up to be a blast. So who would I bet on here? The answer is nobody (at least in leg 1). These teams know how good their opponent is, and I expect the entire first match to be a bit of a feeling out process. Neither will want to get too aggressive and expose themselves to a heavy loss before the second leg, and I expect you see a lot of cautious play from both sides. PSG may push a bit more, both because they’re at home and because their best players are on the attacking line, but I don’t believe Pochettino will allow PSG to expose themselves too much against a City team he knows extremely well. I think this one moves slow early on, and neither team pushes much near the end as the game winds down because they wont want to give up a late goal and cause themselves more problems for the second leg. And at +132 for under 2.5, I think the odds are fantastic here, especially with a City defense who are arguably the best unit in the world. It may not be a fun one to bet, but its right for the money and the situation.

💰 Pick: Under 2.5 (+132)

Europa League Picks

Arsenal-Villareal

The fact that we have the 7^th place team in La Liga against the 9^th place team in the Premier League tells you everything you need to know about how weird this competition can be. You just never know who you’re going to see pop up, and winning this trophy would probably mean a hell of a lot more to these clubs than it would the other two teams still standing. But, with that in mind, I really like Villareal in this first leg. Not only are they at home, but Arsenal have some major health issues between Lacazette and Aubameyang, which will deplete and already struggling offense. Villareal may not have the best defensive unit, but they only give up about a goal per game in league play and have conceded just 1 goal in their last 4 Europa League matches. Arsenal are on a bit of an upswing these days, and they have nothing else to play for other than this competition, but between the overall underwhelming season and the injury issues, I think they aren’t long for this competition. I expect the home side to take things to them hard in this game knowing they need a win and that Arsenal are offensively limited right now, and I expect they come out of this with the victory they need. For all their issues, I don’t think Arsenal would be too upset with a 1 goal loss anyway, and I think that’s what we get.

💰 Villareal ML (+160)

 

Manchester United-Roma

Speaking of underwhelming seasons, it wasn’t too long ago that Roma were a perennial Champions League contender. Now, not so much. They sit 7^th in Serie A and their form as of late has been anything but impressive. However, counting this side out completely is a bit silly, and the line here is fucking nuts to me. The Romans are +460 at home against a United side that have too many defensive issues to be considered a sure thing against Burnley, not to mention a side like Roma. I’m not nearly as confident the Italians have the chops to win this game, but I would not be surprised at all if they hang with United and give them a scare in the first leg before travelling back to Manchester. And for Draw No Bet at +330, I love the value on Roma to steal a home win while protecting against a draw. United are probably the better side right now, and they should be able to move on to the final against a weakened Roma side, but they’re in the Europa League, not the Champions League, for a reason. Take Roma with some extra protection in this tricky first leg.

💰 Pick: Roma Draw No Bet (+330)

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