Prospector Sam's Nuggets – EPL and Europa League picks

Welcome back to another week of Prospector Sam. You may be thinking “I already know where this intro is going. He’s going to talk about how excited he is for March Madness and make some played out reference to a kid on Christmas.” Well, jokes on you, because my scatter brain decided that I wanted to address something completely different today. Don’t get me wrong, I couldn’t be more excited for the next 10 days and all of the glorious college basketball I will be indulging in, but you guys already know that. Plus, next week you can expect more content than normal and probably some variation from the normal writing schedule, so you’ll get your fix of Sam talking basketball then.

No, today I want to talk about my body image issues. Yes, you read that right. I have body image issue. Well, kind of. Because the body I’m talking about is the body of my Prospector cartoon, not the real life guy who sits behind the screen and types (though he’s no Adonis either). Scroll back up and take a hard look at the image Dimers made. What in the fuck is going on there? For one, his legs are basically the size of twigs, and there’s no signs that he’s well endowed AT ALL. Things aren’t much better on the upper body muscle either, with my only redeeming quality being the fact that at least I’m decently well dressed (vest over a button down is fashionable these days, so I’m told). I’m a damn prospector though, not an accountant. I perform manual labor and work with my hands. There I am, though, with a body better suited for a knitting convention than a gold mine. Oh, and to top it off, they made me grey from the top of my head to the tip of my beard. No luscious flowing locks or ever a manly chiseled jawline, just a prematurely grey, scrawny man. 

Now, I’ll be the first to say I don’t need to be built like Johnny Bravo or some overly macho meathead. But would I like to be a good looking cartoon who maybe has a shot with the Jessica Rabbit’s of my world? You bet your ass I would. In stead, I look like a guy who has a more realistic chance of ending up with Ursula than Ariel. So when Dimers makes it big (which I 100% believe they will) and ends up with some massive marketing budget, let it be known; this Prospector demands a glow up! I want biceps, some Just for Men to get that color back in my hair, and maybe even a nice ass to tie it all together (what can I say, I want to be ogled over). I think I deserve it for all of the unnecessary, borderline unpublishable work I produce out here on a weekly basis.

I bet you wish I had just stuck to basketball huh?........Now, lets talk Nuggets 👇

• I’m going back to soccer first. I don’t follow your rules, let me be me.
  
  
• The real reason is that the basketball write up is gonna be long with all of the games, so I figured I’d get this out of the way beforehand. I’m sure you needed two full bullets of explanation for this.
  
  
• So that Arsenal game almost ripped me in two. On the one hand, it was incredibly funny to see Arsenal get screwed and drop points. On the other hand, I also got screwed, which is not fun. As I’ve said, at the end of the day I care more about winning here than grudges, so it was a net loss.
  
  
• Seriously though, how in the fuck is that not a penalty. I don’t care if the defender didn’t have time to react, his arms were spread like a fucking goalie. That’s a penalty, and should have been a 2-1 game with the over hitting. Fuck you, VAR.
  
  
• Sheffield got shutout and lost to Southampton. I don’t need to write any more of insults, that’s embarrassing in itself
  
  
• The Leicester win was glorious (and you’re welcome for a +180 winner). Might have been a bit harsh on Brighton, but that’s why you don’t sit on 1-0 leads. As one Brighton fan page wrote, “it’s the hope that kills you”
  
  
• Newcastle-West Brom was an embarrassment to soccer. It was genuinely astounding how bad both of them were. At the final whistle, I just laughed at myself for taking that over. Its hard to remember ever being more wrong.
  
  
• Oh Liverpool, what happened? Such a fall from grace, and I’m absolutely loving it. Credit to Fulham and Scotty Parker though, this turnaround is incredibly impressive and they probably deserve another season in the big leagues.
  
  
• Well, I told you Man City’s run would come to an end. I wasn’t quite spot on with how well United would play, but +155 winners are always nice. Credit to the Red Devils for outplaying City, but it doesn’t change the title race. As long as City beat the teams they should, nobody is catching them.
  
  
• Time to dive into Tottenham. Credit to Mourinho, he failed this team in January and February but he adjusted and made the necessary changes. Putting Bale on the field probably should have been obvious, but winning now is what matters. They have a real shot at the top 4, and the North London Derby on Sunday will be massive in that race.
  
  
• Tuchel is just suffocating everyone that Chelsea plays. They’ve turned into a defensive monster since the departure of Frank Lampard (the irony of that isn’t lost on me), and easily handled a solid Everton side. 
  
  
• Tough loss for me there though, and unfortunate to end 2-3 on the PL slate (but with two high odds winners we still got past even)
  
  
• I need West Ham to chill the fuck out. The top of the table is crowded enough, get your stupid bubble-blowing asses out of here.
  
  
• City got right back on track by pummeling Southampton into the ground. That might be less surprising than the fact that they gave up 2 goals, but 3 points is all that matters for them any more.
  
  
• Juve-Porto was an incredible fixture. I hit my over comfortably, which was nice, and the drama in Extra Time was incredible. Credit to Porto for taking it down a man, but what an embarrassing loss for Juve. Maybe work on how to execute a wall in training (hint: not moving out of the way helps)
  
  
• Dortmund are dangerous. More specifically, Haaland is unstoppable right now. Good luck to whoever has to deal with that nightmare next round.
  
  
• Champions League Wednesday was a complete letdown. Neither Barca nor Leipzig made a real push for a comeback, and both fizzled out with barely a whimper.
  
  
• So Europa. Spurs winning was nice, even though beating a team from Croatia shouldn’t be an issue. The bigger problem was the Arsenal over hitting. Jesus fucking Christ. Not only did I get fucked again, with the Olympiakos goalie looking like an 8 year-old picking dandelions while playing their one shift for youth soccer, but it capped the impressive/shameful double miss on Arsenal this week. Some days, I really hate gambling.
  
  
• What an absolutely ELECTRIC week of basketball. Big matchups, bubble teams clawing for life, and some awesome small conference tournaments. This is what its all about, folks. Buckle up.
  
  
• Also, I’m picking more games these days, all on twitter. If you want more of this genius sports gambling mind, get on there and check it out. 8-2 so far in conference championship picks, not to toot my own horn (but also to completely toot my own horn).
  
  
• I’ll start by noting my nice win on Purdue -6 in last week’s blog. Sticking to the single pick paid dividends (my next best pick was not a winner, part of gambling is knowing what shots to not take).
  
  
• Illinois are trying really hard to make me a believer. I still don’t trust them (purely because of the name on the jersey), but I guess anything is possible in 2021.
  
  
• Speaking of, Kentucky basketball. God, I love it. I met my new neighbors recently who are lifelong UK fans, and it took all of my decency not to laugh in their faces (yes, I do have a small amount of decency. A very, very small amount).
  
  
• Oklahoma State is getting hot at the right time, and have one of the best players in the country. That’s a dangerous recipe come March (remember a guy named Kemba Walker?).
  
  
• RIP Villanova. Injuries will kill you in basketball, and losing Collin Gillespie is pretty much the end for them.
  
  
• It probably wont happen, but I would absolutely be ok with giving Belmont an at large bid. I understand the soft schedule, but they went 26-4 and lost to a quality Morehead State team in the OVC final. Show the little guy some love for once.
  
  
• I don’t think Michigan State is a tournament team, but they’re making the Committee pause for sure. They handled Michigan and would do some damage if they made the tournament. Hard to reward them with a bid after how badly they started though (and personally, I would not put them in). (Edit: after the MD blowout in the first round of the Big10 Tournament, they absolutely do not deserve a bid).
  
  
• Speaking of teams sweating, Wisconsin might be in trouble. They’re just 16-11 and have lost 6 of 8. Probably still make it in, but the last 4 weeks have dropped them from a top 4 seed to just better than a bubble team.
  
  
• It was a good year for Liberty sports. Never thought I’d be saying that.
  
  
• Speaking of dangerous small programs, I’m not sure I’d be looking forward to a matchup with Winthrop. They are not a team you want to get into a track meet with.
  
  
• Loyola Basketball is for real? I guess they are. Tough loss in the final for Drake, who had a fairytale season, but Loyola is good, not “good for a small conference team.” Hard to see the Bulldogs making it with their resume, but another team I wouldn’t mind getting an at large.
  
  
• Tuesday had a bunch of fun finals, handing out tickets to a bunch of future first round losers. Nice of you to join us Cleveland State/Robert Morris/Drexel/Mt. St. Mary’s, but don’t get too comfortable.
  
  
• Oh, and Gonzaga won the WCC, to nobody’s surprise. I fully expect this team to get a rude wakeup call in the second or third round when they finally have to play a real team again.
  
  
• Aside from that, there wasn’t a ton of midweek NCAAB action. A lot of early round tournament play that will turn more exciting come Friday/Saturday/Sunday. I’m sure all of you, like me, will be watching.
  
  
• No, I’m not going to address the Syracuse buzzer-beater loss to UVA. I’m still in pain. Especially so after UVA promptly forfeited their next game because that program is disgusting and pathetic.
  
  
• Not a ton of other news. We saw franchise tags and a very large Dak Prescott deal in the NFL. I can’t say it was anything too shocking or exciting though.
  
  
• But my Pats decided to bring back Cam Newton. You son of a bitch, Bill. I know this is probably a move to draft high and develop, but watching Newton throw balls at his receivers feet was not part of my plans for next season. I’ve been a long advocate for BB being as much responsible for the Patriots dynasty as Brady, but after the last Super Bowl and these recent moves I’m starting to waiver.
  
  
• There was an interview with some people who used to be royal but are no longer royal but continue to talk about being royal. Want me to get into that drama? No? Didn’t think so. Picks it is.

️
⚽️ Premier League

Chelsea-Leeds: I’m going to start by giving my one caveat of the week, which is that I seem to lose every fucking time I bet on Chelsea. Maybe it’s the gambling gods having a sense of humor, where they like to fuck with me when I put money on the club I hate most in the League, but it just never seems to go right. That said, I can’t shy away based on things like that, especially because this matchup is perfect for Chelsea the way they are playing right now. Leeds are the soccer equivalent of a degenerate gambler. They take risks at every turn and try desperately for wins, even when it would be a better idea to slow down and take a step back. Want proof? Leeds are last in the League in draws, with just 2 in 27 games. Case in point. They go for wins, but end up losing a lot when it doesn’t pan out. Unfortunately, their strategy is not destined for glory against a Chelsea side who are defending incredibly well and scoring opportunistically. Not only do the Londoners have the skill to shut down a Leeds side that try really hard but just aren’t all that good (like that kid who wanted to be a varsity athlete but never quite had the talent), but they’ll get more opportunities than normal against a porous Leeds back line. For me, this game feels like a really good chance for a Chelsea win, and I was shocked to see the line at just -135. Chelsea’s biggest limitation here would be their lack of scoring, but overall they still have enough skill on that end to make Leeds pay and put in a couple of goals. I like them to handle this game comfortably and take all 3.

💰 Pick: Chelsea ML (-135)

Fulham-City: Generally speaking, when you get two teams that are dramatically separated in terms of skill, you usually see the odds for overs drop. The thinking being obviously, that the lopsided matchup will lead to goals for the better team with a higher level of certainty. While Fulham have been solid over the last month or two in their fight for survival, there is still a Pacific Ocean-sized gap between them and City. So even though neither of these teams tend to be high scoring, I feel comfortable saying that City will be able to handle Fulham. If you want to put your money down on City to win, be my guest, but at -310 the value is weak at best. In stead, you can take the over at -130 at a far better value, and I think it has a great chance of hitting. As I said, City are way better than Fulham, who probably don’t have a prayer even if they pack it in and try to defend all game. In stead, knowing that they are playing with house money, I think they take some chances early on to see if they can steal a goal in a match they don’t expect to win. If they do score it will go a long way for this over, but its also just as likely to open up the Cottagers and give City opportunities. Either way, I just don’t see this one playing tight and slow, because Fulham don’t have the horses to contain a side as talented as City. I expect the Citizens probably cover this total themselves, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Fulham, given their recent form, manage to steal a goal as well. And at -130, the payout is extremely strong for a matchup between the 1^st and 18^th place clubs.

💰Pick: Over 2.5 (-130)

Arsenal-Tottenham: You thought I’d shy away from this one based on my MASSIVE personal interest? Not a damn chance. Regardless of how bad both of these teams have been over the course of the season (especially relative to the norm), this derby is still one of the biggest in the country and all eyeballs will be on it come Sunday. If you want to bet the line, be my guest, but I haven’t got a fucking clue who wins this game. Maybe that’s partially due to my allegiances, but overall I just don’t see a clear pick. On the other hand, I like the over here a lot. Spurs/Mourinho concluded their experiment of scoring a goal and parking the bus after it became apparent to literally EVERYONE that it wasn’t working. Now, they attack and kill you with speed, which causes lots of opportunities but also leaves inept defenders like Davinson Sanchez more exposed. Both of these teams are scoring at a fairly high clip at the moment, and I don’t expect it to stop. There is a bit of extra concern in games like this between “big clubs” because we often see slow starts and a reluctance to be exposed defensively. But, as sad as it is to say, neither of these teams really has anything to lose. They sit 7^th and 9^th with 10 games remaining, and are going to need to over perform dramatically to have a shot at UCL or even Europa League matches next year. I expect both of these teams to come out swinging and for at least 3 to hit the back of the net.

💰Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)

Wolves-Liverpool: There’s no sugarcoating it, Liverpool are just an absolute mess right now. They’ve lost 4 of 5 and are playing both uninspired and technically bad soccer. But, all that said, gambling is about recognizing regression from the mean. Liverpool are obviously not as bad as they’ve played recently, and I expect that they level off at some point to get back and fight for a Champions League spot. Add in that their odds have been dropping along with their form, and you get very solid value on them against a Wolves team that have never really had much going for them this season and are just peddling along until the year ends. Liverpool are -130 in this one, and in a game that Liverpool both should and need to win, I feel confident that they will get things back on track. Wolves don’t present much threat on offense, so Liverpool only need to put in a goal or two to win this game. Wolves aren’t as abysmal as some other sides, but at a -9 GD on the year they’ve proven to be less of a difficult hurdle than years past. I suggest “buying low” here, as the stock kids would say, and picking up Liverpool to win this one while the value is still right.

💰Pick: Liverpool ML (-130)

🏆 Champions League

I’m going to be completely honest with you and say I hate all of it. Seriously. I looked at the 4 games, and factoring in the results from the first legs there is not a damn bet I want to touch here. I could lie, force it, and maybe get lucky because this is gambling and that’s what its all about. But at the end of the day, I’m not here to put the good name (probably a stretch, but we can pretend) of the Prospector on something I don’t believe in.

️⚽️ Europa League

Tottenham-Zagreb: As I’ve said previously, betting second legs is an absolute nightmare. Choose your spots carefully. I like this pick here, though, because of the first leg result. Tottenham are improving on the offensive end, and really starting to take this competition seriously. More importantly, they’re up by 2 goals in this fixture and Zagreb are going to have to push hard to make things interesting. That sets up perfectly for Spurs, who’s biggest offensive skillset is countering with speed through Son, Kane and Bale. Zagreb tried to hold on for dear life in the first leg knowing they were clearly at a skill disadvantage, but at home, and trying to make up a two goal difference, they’ll have no choice but to spread themselves trying to find goals. Now, I think they’re actually good enough to get one against a fragile Spurs defense, and Zagreb is not as offensively deficient as they looked in the first game. At the same time, I think Spurs will also be able to pick them apart on the counter and will put away a couple themselves as the home side push desperately for a miracle turnaround. And at -125 for over 2.5, I think the value is solid for this pick. If the game stalls early and reaches halftime 0-0 we’re obviously in danger of Tottenham just bunkering in a playing for a draw, but we’d be pretty screwed anyway with that scoreline. As long as a goal or two goes in before the break this should cover comfortably, and I expect that to happen.

💰Pick: Over 2.5 (-125)

🏀 CBB

Nothing this week, because all of Saturday’s games are contingent on Friday’s. Sorry folks, go check out my tweets tomorrow morning.

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