Prospector Sam - Euro 2020 Soccer Preview: Groups D, E, F

After a 2-week hiatus, real soccer is back with Euros! No, I do not count the CONCACAF Nations League regardless of how exciting and wild that final was (but, also, shout out USA for winning something). I've gone through the Groups and found some bets we should be throwing cash down on.

Friday, June 11 marks the start of “Euro 2020.” Yes, astute reader, it is no longer 2020, but the branding hasn’t changed so be prepared to see the wrong year written all over the place for the next month in the pieces I file for Dimers.com. 

Even more silly and ironic is the format of this year’s event, which is dramatically changed from previous European Championships. Not only are there more teams, but there is no host nation, meaning teams and fans will be traveling all over the continent to support their countries. Good thing there isn’t some deadly pandemic ripping through the world which would cause that sort of travel and excessive contact with foreigners to be a bad idea...

⚽  Euro 2020 Same Game Parlay Picks

All of those eye-rolling issues aside, this is still a huge deal. For the new or casual soccer fan, it might not seem like it, and that’s understandable. The World Cup is the biggest competition in the sport and it includes all of the countries, not just a small chunk of them. The reality is, though, that aside from a few South American nations, all of the relevant teams are from Europe anyway. Look no further than the 2018 World Cup, where all 4 semifinalists and 6 of the 8 quarterfinalists were European. So, while it might not be quite as significant as the main event, the Euros are still pretty damn important.

What’s the goal for this article? Well, I’m going to walk you through any and everything you need to know for this event so that you can sound smart to your coworkers and even do some respectable gambling. I wont be giving out game picks in this article because that’s a bit too far into the minutiae, but look for daily selections on Dimers’ Discord channel and some videos on Gambling Goal$. Let’s get to it!

READ: Prospector Sam's Euro 2020 Preview: Groups A, B, C

Euro 2020 Format

The first thing you need to know is “how the hell does this work.” By implementing changes for this tournament, UEFA (Europe’s soccer governing body) created a weird structure that isn’t all that intuitive. But, more money for them from more games, so there is some logic to it (even if that logic is bad).

There are 24 qualified teams, broken into 6 groups of 4 which were randomly drawn from 4 pots based on ranking (aside from the fact the Ukraine can’t be drawn with Russia, because those fuckers still hate each other). Each group was assigned two host countries, where all of the games from that group will be played. Every team will play each other once, based on a random draw for order, with the top 2 teams from each group advancing to the Round of 16. Yes, that only adds up to twelve, which means we will also be taking the four best third placed teams (based on points) to the Round of 16 as well, where it becomes a normal bracket-style tournament to survive and advance.

I could bore you with potential tiebreaker scenarios or considerations about what teams get to play at home and why, but that would probably be going a bit too far into the weeds here. Just know that each team plays the three other teams in their group, and needs to be in the top 2 or 3 to qualify for the next round.

How to Watch Euro 2020 in America?

This is probably important, huh? And, thankfully, it's not actually going to be that tough to get access to these matches. ABC has the TV rights, and all games will be aired on ESPN, ESPN2 or ABC. Pretty much every game starts at either noon or 3 ET, aside from a few 9 AM games in Russia or Azerbaijan, which means bringing a laptop into work may be a necessity (if you even go into work yet), but ESPN’s online streaming is about as good as it gets. Hulu + and FuboTV will also stream all the games, so you have a variety of options if you need them. Not great for workplace productivity, but that’s your boss’ problem, not yours.

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Euro 2020 Group Analysis

Considering this is the starting point for the tournament, I figured it would be a good idea to give a rundown of the Groups and how I see everything playing out. That’ll provide some knowledge on the specifics for each of these pods, along with potential bets for anyone who wants to make them. Let’s break it down ⤵️

Group D:

England, Croatia, Scotland, Czech Republic

England are from Pot 1, Croatia are from Pot 2, Czech Republic are from Pot 3, and Scotland are from Pot 4. Games will be played in England and Scotland, with England having 3 games at home and Scotland having 2 games at home

Let’s make two things here very clear; England are the best team in this group, but England are also “overvalued” in every tournament. It’s a product of playing for the country with the most soccer money and the biggest league in the world. This team is still very good and have a plethora of attacking options, but with Harry McGuire and John Stones anchoring the back line, beware.

The other three teams are all fairly big question marks, and you could see a Cinderella come out of this group. Croatia are the odds on favorite for second, but they aren’t the same team that made the World Cup Final in 2018. The Croatians barely survived a soft group in qualifying and their striker, Ivan Perisic, played wingback for Inter this season. Scotland will get a lot of attention as well for making their first major tournament since 1998, but they don’t have a ton of talent and its hard to see how they could survive with Che Adams as their most threatening attacker. That leaves us with the Czechs, who might just be the team to look at for a surprise. They certainly aren’t an exciting side to watch, but they play organized and disciplined soccer. That approach led them to a victory over England in qualifying, which shows they have the quality to produce results against top competition. Many of their players start for Slavia Prague, the top team in the Czech Republic, and that will help with their tactics as they try to play smart, organized soccer.

I’ve teed this up already, but look for England to win the group, simply because there isn’t really anyone to put up a fight. And throw some money on the Czech Republic to overperform and take second.

Group E:

Spain, Sweden, Poland, Slovakia

Spain are from Pot 1, Poland are from Pot 2, Sweden are from Pot 3, and Slovakia are from Pot 4. Games will be played in Spain and Russia, with Spain having 3 games at home and no other team having home games.

Everyone loves Spain. They always do, especially since their run of form in the early 2010s that saw them capture a World Cup and two European Championships. But Spain has failed to find the same level of quality in the last few years and they’re left with a bunch of players who could be great, but are also liable to produce poor performances. Its my boldest pick of the tournament, but I’m weary of Spain taking this outright. I doubt they fail to qualify for the next round, but this squad lacks the cutting edge and crucial difference makers to impress me right now.

Who does? Well, Poland had Robert Lewandowski. This team has some obvious flaws, notably a back line without any big names, but they won their qualifying group with a record of 8-1-1 and gave up just 5 goals. That’s shows me they can hold themselves together, and I think they could sneak away with this group win (which is good value at +600). As for Sweden and Slovakia, well, I don’t have a lot of positives. The Swedes qualified mostly because their group consisted of Spain and four traffic cones, while Slovakia made it through a playoff after finishing third behind Croatia and Wales. Neither inspires a lot of confidence, and I wouldn’t hold my breath on either making a push at the top of the group.

Group F:

Hungary, Portugal, France, Germany

Germany are from Pot 1, France are from Pot 2, Portugal are from Pot 3, and Hungary are from Pot 4. Games will be played in Germany and Hungary, with Germany having 3 games at home and Hungary having two games at home.

Aaaaaand we saved the best for last. The undoubted “Group of Death,” which holds the two most recent World Cup winners and the Euro trophy holder. Oh, and Hungary. Sorry Hungary.

Skipping over the country that you could easily confused with the need for a cheeseburger and fries, lets move on to the three legitimate options. Quite honestly, I don’t know how you make heads or tails of this one. Portugal look the “least strong”, but with players like Bruno Fernandes, Christiano Ronaldo, and Ruben Dias it would be foolish to count this side out. France are loaded with talent from top to bottom, including N’Golo Kante who proved in the UCL finals that he can be one of the most dominant players in the world at just 5’6”. Then you have Germany, who had a massively disappointing World Cup in 2018 but have possibly the most frightening lineup (and squad) in the whole tournament.

My advice; just enjoy. International tournaments can be tough to gauge sometimes, and this group is a really tough one to call. Watching these matches will be fun without any betting interest, and that seems to me to be the most practical approach.

Teams to Watch for the Euro 2020 Trophy

Realistically, this tournament is going to come down to a handful of teams. While you’ll see some surprising results in the group stage, class will win out in a winner take all matches and there are probably about 7 teams who have a real shot at this (England, France, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Portugal, and maybe Italy).

Who do I like? Well, it's tough to look too far down the line when there are so many unknown variables, the most notable being how the 16-team bracket shakes out. But, looking at the odds right now, I’ll throw out Germany +800 as a damn good bet for the money. They’re undervalued based on their last international performance, but this team is every bit as good as the rest of the sides in this tournament. Having the sixth best odds at the books, I think you are getting a lot for your money, with the biggest danger being their group and the test they’ll be put through through early in the competition.

💰 Pick: Germany +800

Read: Prospector Sam's Euro 2020 Preview: Groups D, E, F

Read: Euro 2020 Same Game Parlay Picks