Prospector Sam - Euro 2020 Soccer Betting Preview: Group A, B and C

After a 2-week hiatus, real soccer is back with Euros! No, I do not count the CONCACAF Nations League regardless of how exciting and wild that final was (but, also, shout out USA for winning something). I've gone through the Groups and found some bets we should be throwing cash down on.

Friday, June 11 marks the start of “Euro 2020.” Yes, astute reader, it is no longer 2020, but the branding hasn’t changed so be prepared to see the wrong year written all over the place for the next month in the pieces I file for Dimers.com. 

Even more silly and ironic is the format of this year’s event, which is dramatically changed from previous European Championships. Not only are there more teams, but there is no host nation, meaning teams and fans will be traveling all over the continent to support their countries. Good thing there isn’t some deadly pandemic ripping through the world which would cause that sort of travel and excessive contact with foreigners to be a bad idea...

⚽  Euro 2020 Same Game Parlay Picks

All of those eye-rolling issues aside, this is still a huge deal. For the new or casual soccer fan, it might not seem like it, and that’s understandable. The World Cup is the biggest competition in the sport and it includes all of the countries, not just a small chunk of them. The reality is, though, that aside from a few South American nations, all of the relevant teams are from Europe anyway. Look no further than the 2018 World Cup, where all 4 semifinalists and 6 of the 8 quarterfinalists were European. So, while it might not be quite as significant as the main event, the Euros are still pretty damn important.

What’s the goal for this article? Well, I’m going to walk you through any and everything you need to know for this event so that you can sound smart to your coworkers and even do some respectable gambling. I wont be giving out game picks in this article because that’s a bit too far into the minutiae, but look for daily selections on Dimers’ Discord channel and some videos on Gambling Goal$. Let’s get to it!

READ: Prospector Sam's Euro 2020 Preview: Groups D, E, F

Euro 2020 Format

The first thing you need to know is “how the hell does this work.” By implementing changes for this tournament, UEFA (Europe’s soccer governing body) created a weird structure that isn’t all that intuitive. But, more money for them from more games, so there is some logic to it (even if that logic is bad).

There are 24 qualified teams, broken into 6 groups of 4 which were randomly drawn from 4 pots based on ranking (aside from the fact the Ukraine can’t be drawn with Russia, because those fuckers still hate each other). Each group was assigned two host countries, where all of the games from that group will be played. Every team will play each other once, based on a random draw for order, with the top 2 teams from each group advancing to the Round of 16. Yes, that only adds up to twelve, which means we will also be taking the four best third placed teams (based on points) to the Round of 16 as well, where it becomes a normal bracket-style tournament to survive and advance.

I could bore you with potential tiebreaker scenarios or considerations about what teams get to play at home and why, but that would probably be going a bit too far into the weeds here. Just know that each team plays the three other teams in their group, and needs to be in the top 2 or 3 to qualify for the next round.

How to Watch Euro 2020 in America?

This is probably important, huh? And, thankfully, it's not actually going to be that tough to get access to these matches. ABC has the TV rights, and all games will be aired on ESPN, ESPN2 or ABC. Pretty much every game starts at either noon or 3 ET, aside from a few 9 AM games in Russia or Azerbaijan, which means bringing a laptop into work may be a necessity (if you even go into work yet), but ESPN’s online streaming is about as good as it gets. Hulu + and FuboTV will also stream all the games, so you have a variety of options if you need them. Not great for workplace productivity, but that’s your boss’ problem, not yours.

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Euro 2020 Group Analysis

Considering this is the starting point for the tournament, I figured it would be a good idea to give a rundown of the Groups and how I see everything playing out. That’ll provide some knowledge on the specifics for each of these pods, along with potential bets for anyone who wants to make them. Let’s break it down ⤵️

Group A:

Turkey, Italy, Wales, Switzerland

We’ll start with the logistics and move from there. Italy came from Pot 1, Switzerland from Pot 2, Turkey from Pot 3, and Wales from Pot 4. The games for this group will be played in Italy and Azerbaijan (a totally practical place to have a European Championship). That means Italy will have all of its games in home soil, and no other team in the group will have home games.

This group is an interesting one, to say the least. As expected by anyone with some soccer knowledge, Italy is the heavy favorite to win the group, and they should be. Getting home field advantage will be a boost for them, but they’re also the most talented team of the bunch. That said, they aren’t the powerhouse they’ve been in the past, and their failure to qualify for the World Cup in 2018 was a sign that things aren’t so great for the “Azzuri” these days. Ciro Immobile and Marco Verratti will headline the team, but how much they can drag out of an injured Jorginho may be the difference for them.

They also aren’t facing any slouches here either. Switzerland are a repeat World Cup Qualifier who have talent all over the pitch (although no real superstar), Turkey have Hakan Calhanglu of AC Milan and a good supporting cast of players, while Wales have talent (albeit ageing) in household name like Aaron Ramsey and Gareth Bale.

While I’m not in love with this Italian side, I think the home field advantage is enough to get them over the line, likely as the top spot. They have the most complete side and will be skilled at every position, rather than relying on a couple of top class players. In a more surprising pick, I expect the Swiss to not make it into the top 2 of this group, despite having the second best odds to do so. Their talent is limited, and players like Xhaka and Shaqiri aren’t quite what they used to be. Look for either Wales or Turkey to surprise and qualify for the Round of 16 in the second spot.

Group B:

Denmark, Finland, Belgium, Russia

Belgium are from Pot 1, Russia are from Pot 2, Denmark are from Pot 3, and Finland are from Pot 4. Games will be played in Denmark and Russia, with Denmark playing all of its games at home and Russia playing two of its games at home.

This group is probably going to be one of the most interesting in the Tournament (though Group F probably takes the title). Aside from Finland, who probably have a better chance of getting an 80-degree heatwave in January than advancing, each of these teams is dangerous and has a real shot to grab the top spot. Belgium come in as the top qualifying team and the favorite to win the group (-135), but their defense could be a huge problem. That said, there is every reason to believe they handle this group. They played and beat Russia twice in qualifying, and their squad boasts top players like Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. Denmark also have a solid squad littered with top players, but had some head-scratching results in qualifying including a 0-0 draw against Georgia (the country, not the state, just FYI). They also have trouble scoring goals, which isn’t that surprising when you recognize that they have exactly zero top-class forwards. Russia, meanwhile, are just tough to figure out. Monaco’s Aleksandr Golovin will be the highlight of this team, but almost the entire squad plays domestic soccer in Russia and will be relatively unknown to the rest of the nations they face.

While I hate to go with the favorites again, Belgium have the right squad to walk out of this group on top. As I mentioned previously, their defense is their biggest weakness, but the best striker they’ll face may actually be Finland’s Teemu Pukki. Even playing away from home throughout the competition, they will probably walk out with 7-9 points here. As for second place, I think Russia could surprise some people. Denmark’s offensive struggles are more than a minor concern, especially when you see that a midfielder (Christian Eriksen) led them in goals during qualification. Russia will have to go to Copenhagen in the final match, which isn’t ideal, but I think they have enough talent to challenge the Danes and cause them some issues.

Group C:

Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria, Nth Macedonia

Ukraine are from Pot 1, Netherlands are from Pot 2, Austria are from Pot 3, and North Macedonia are from Pot 4. Games will be played in the Netherlands and Romania, with the Netherlands playing 3 games at home and no other team having home games.

Much like the last group, one team’s dream will end before it began. North Macedonia making it this far is a feat in itself (or maybe an example of why expanding the competition is a bad idea), but they don’t have the horses to hang here. They lost to Austria, the second worst team in the group, twice in qualifying. Thanks for showing up, better luck next time (but it’ll probably go the same if you ever make it back).

Moving on to real teams, this group isn’t all to exciting. As I mentioned, Austria are a legitimate team but still a ways behind. Neither David Alaba or Marko Arnautovic are the player they used to be, and the rest of the side is extremely thin. Watford’s Daniel Bachmann (keeper) would need to have a HUGE tournament for the Austrians to stand a chance, and even then it might not be enough. Ukraine are also a solid side, led by national hero Andriy Shevchenko, but they would need his magical skill and then some to make a deep run in this tournament.

That leaves us with the Netherlands, who host all of their games and seem the consensus team to beat in Group C. Unlike years past, though, this team isn’t all that good. They’ve never managed to replace the talent (Van Persie, Robben, Sneijder) that took them all the way to the World Cup Final in 2010, and are without Virgil Van Dijk who is one of the best players in the world. On paper they’re probably the strongest team, but the gap isn’t quite as big as you’d think.

If I were betting this group, I might take a flier on Ukraine to win it. At +470 there’s some solid value there, and the Ukrainians won their qualifying group over reigning European champions Portugal without losing a match. I think the Dutch and Ukrainians are a lock for the top 2 spots, and their match in the first game of the tournament will likely decide the group.

Teams to Watch for the Euro 2020 Trophy

Realistically, this tournament is going to come down to a handful of teams. While you’ll see some surprising results in the group stage, class will win out in a winner take all matches and there are probably about 7 teams who have a real shot at this (England, France, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Portugal, and maybe Italy).

Who do I like? Well, it's tough to look too far down the line when there are so many unknown variables, the most notable being how the 16-team bracket shakes out. But, looking at the odds right now, I’ll throw out Germany +800 as a damn good bet for the money. They’re undervalued based on their last international performance, but this team is every bit as good as the rest of the sides in this tournament. Having the sixth best odds at the books, I think you are getting a lot for your money, with the biggest danger being their group and the test they’ll be put through through early in the competition.

💰 Pick: Germany +800

Read: Prospector Sam's Euro 2020 Preview: Groups D, E, F

Read: Euro 2020 Same Game Parlay Picks