PromoGuy's Vegas-Based Fantasy Football Rankings: The New Season's Market Insights

 

• The biggest thing that jumps out is Kelce being the top player across the board (#5 or #6 depending on scoring system Sleeper ADP).  We had him notably higher than the market last year as well. We actually have him at similar VBD numbers relative to FantasyPros but Vegas seems to believe this is a deeper RB and WR class than FantasyPros does. The top quarterbacks get a bump again this year from our approach (especially in standard leagues). We have the top quarterback going 6th in standard vs. 15th Sleeper ADP. 
• We react a lot more to PPR than the fantasy market in general. Quarterbacks go way down our list as we move to half PPR and full PPR while they seem to have little impact on ADPs. Receivers are far less valuable in our rankings in standard leagues than where they are being drafted, but in PPR it lines up much closer as we bump them up more than the rest of the Fantasy industry.

Vegas ranking is better (aka lower number) than the fantasy market:

Overall player rankings:

• In standard scoring leagues, Nick Chubb's Average Draft Position (ADP) floats between late-first to mid-second round (#10 on Yahoo! and #17 on NFL.com). In stark contrast, Vegas-based Value-Based Drafting (VBD) positions him as the #2 overall player.

Quarterback rankings:

• Vegas has Joe Burrow comfortably ahead of Lamar Jackson despite most places leaning Jackson.

Running Back rankings:

• Joe Mixon appears to be undervalued in PPR formats based on his RB #11 ranking vs. RB #15 ADP.

Wide Receiver rankings:

• Garrett Wilson jumped out with the highest discrepancy based on WR Vegas projections (WR #6) relative to his ADP (#10 on sleeper). 
• Mike Evans might be a valuable pick given his Vegas projections relative to fantasy projections as he is all the way up at #19 in standard leagues vs 31 ADP on sleeper. Mike Evans will likely be drafted onto several of my teams. 

Tight End rankings:

• In the realm of fantasy football, Travis Kelce's dominance is unparalleled. According to Vegas Value-Based Drafting (VBD) projections, the chasm in value between Kelce (TE #1) and Mark Andrews (TE #2) is staggering. This value difference is so pronounced that it offers fantasy managers a positional advantage over their counterparts, unmatched by any other NFL skill player.

Overvalued by Fantasy Market

Vegas ranking is worse (aka higher number) than the fantasy market:

Overall player rankings:

• The betting markets strongly disagree with the lofty ADP for Austin Ekeler for standard format leagues. While Ekeler is being drafted on average around pick #4 overall, betting markets place Ekeler #14 overall in VBD rankings.
• Among wide receivers for PPR formats, Christian Watson (#71 Vegas vs. #53 ESPN ADP), DJ Moore (#81 Vegas vs. #43 NFL.com and #51 Sleeper ADP), Deebo Samuel (#51 Vegas vs. #34 ESPN and #37 Sleeper ADP) and Tee Higgins (#41 Vegas vs. #27 ESPN and #28 Sleeper ADP) highlight players that are likely to disappoint relative to Vegas projections.

Quarterback rankings:

• Betting markets temper expectations for Justin Fields, predicting a performance 3 ranks lower than ADPS/consensus rankings (we have him at the number 9 qb vs number 6 qb most places). This seems to stem from Fields being projected by Sleeper and ESPN over 100 yards more rushing yards than the betting markets are projecting him and thus leaving Vegas-Based rankings lower on Fields (Sleeper has him projected 935 rushing yards and Fanduel/Draftkings over/unders have him at 800.5). We believe that this difference should lead people to draft Fields lower than they have been but if you want to “fade” this difference you may want to consider taking Fields over rushing yards at one of the sportsbooks. 
• Tua Tagovailoa is a highly targeted backup quarterback to consider fading according to Vegas, who projects him as QB #16 relative to his QB #11 ADP.

Running Back rankings:

• Rachaad White is a player that falls in the overvalued category. ESPN consensus ranks have him as the #21 RB in STD leagues and #18 RB in PPR. Vegas-Based rankings have him as #31 in STD leagues and #26 in PPR. 

Wide Receiver rankings:

• Vegas is notably lower on Hopkins having him at #28 in Standard leagues (vs. WR #19 ADP on Sleeper) and #24 in half PPR leagues (vs. WR #21 ADP on Yahoo and Sleeper).

Conclusion and Recommendations

Our juxtaposition of Vegas-based projections against ESPN's expert consensus unveils a wealth of strategic insights. For both seasoned fantasy football enthusiasts and newcomers, this analysis can serve as a pivotal tool in refining draft strategies. It's imperative to recognize the dynamic nature of these rankings, which mirror real-time fluctuations in betting markets.

This advantage allows us to adjust to news a lot faster than ADPs or expert rankings as betting markets are always moving. Our rankings update daily so check back in before your drafts. We will have weekly rankings again all season so stay tuned! Good luck with your drafts and here's to a fun and rewarding fantasy season!

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

One final note I want to add is that, due to holdouts or injuries, some players don’t have player prop over/unders and were excluded from the rankings. You will see gaps in ranking (for example from 4 to 6) where players are excluded to still get a sense for where the guys we do have projections for are/ would be ranked. Players will be filled in once their props are added. 

The players missing from the table due to not having player prop over/unders are:

RB - Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, Javonte Williams, Jeff Wilson Jr, Khalil Herbert

WR - Davante Adams, Jerry Jeudy, Terry Mclaurin, Courtland Sutton

TE - Cole Kmet, Zach Ertz

Find out which books are best, who has the best new customer offer, and how you can secure better odds and lines for all of your football bets, below.

The 👉 Best US Betting Sites 👈