Projecting Nick Chubb's Fantasy and Betting Outlook in Week 7 Return from 2023 Knee Injury

Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb is set to return to action in Week 7 when the Browns face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, October 20.

The star running back sustained a significant knee injury in Week 2 of the 2023 season and was immediately ruled out for the rest of the year. One of the league's best all-around rushers will finally return to the field, more than 400 days since he last played in an NFL game.

He joins a Browns team reeling from a 1-5 start and down to just a 1.3% probability win the AFC North according to Dimers' NFL futures predictions.

Despite the injury, the Browns restructured Chubb's contract in the offseason, keeping the RB with the team and freeing up some additional cap space.

Is Nick Chubb Playing in Week 7?

In an open letter to the city of Cleveland via The Players' Tribune, Chubb said "You all had my back...There’s only one thing left to do now. I gotta pay ya back." 

Chubb's immediate role is not yet clear, but he's set to play sure sounds ready, and our predictive analytics model that runs 1000s of simulations on every game in the Week 7 NFL schedule is projecting the running back to clearly lead the backfield in Week 7.

Nick Chubb exits the 2023 Week 2 Browns vs. Steelers game on a cart.

Our Projections for Nick Chubb in Browns vs. Bengals Week 7 Matchup

In Nick Chubb's last full healthy seasons, he saw 300 carries and averaged 90+ yards per game. He averaged over 20 total touches between carries and targets was as close to a workhorse RB1 as you will find in today's NFL, save for Derrick Henry.

The Browns wouldn't activate Chubb for this game if he wasn't healthy enough to paly, but he may not see a full workload as they ease him back into the speed and physicality of the NFL game.

Presently, here's how we project Nick Chubb to perform in Week 7 vs. the Bengals, compared to the sportsbooks' posted lines and odds:

• 58 Projected Rushing Yards (No line available)
• 35.0% Anytime Touchdown Probability (+125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• 8.6% First Touchdown Probability (+700 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• 5.7% 2+ Touchdown Probability (+900 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Additionally, with Jerome Ford likely out, here's our limited projections for the projected RB2 behind him, D'Onta Foreman:

• 30 Projected Rushing Yards (No line available)
• 13 Projected Receiving Yards (No line available)
• 16.7% Anytime TD Probability (+330 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• 3.7% First TD Probability (+1600 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Based on our Browns vs. Bengals prediction, you can see that our model projects Chubb to lead this backfield right away, though not with his usual high output. There's no line set on the books for his rushing yards or attempts, but if there is value in those markets before gametime, you'll find our best NFL props here.

🏈 MORE: Full Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview

Betting and Fantasy Outlook for Nick Chubb

Our projected statistics for Nick Chubb above translate to roughly 9.3 fantasy points, if you translate our yards to traditional fantasy scoring and our TD probability as 3.5 points (35%).

Whether to start Chubb in fantasy this week is sure to be a hot topic. If you're hurting for a running back and starting someone along the lines of a Bucky Irving or Tyrone Tracy fill-in type, I'd say fire Chubb up in your starting lineup. As someone with Nick Chubb in two leagues, I'll be playing him in the my RB-needy lineup.

The bigger takeaway is that outside of Chubb, this backfield is untouchable in fantasy. Jerome Ford was a playable starter in his absence, but if Chubb sees even half the carries, it will cap Foreman's upside.

From a betting perspective, our model says you want to bet a Chubb Anytime touchdown at odds of +185 or better, a far cry from the current +125 odds available at DraftKings.

For the first touchdown, you want odds of +1050 or better based on our 8.6% probability.

Dimers' Predictions for Browns vs. Bengals on Sunday, October 20

Bengals vs. Browns: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

• Teams: Bengals vs. Browns
• Date: Sunday, October 20, 2024
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Huntington Bank Field

Current Betting Odds

• Spread: Bengals favored at -6.5
• Total (Over/Under): 41.5
• Moneyline Odds: Bengals -285, Browns +240

According to Dimers, the Moneyline, Spread, and Total predictions for the game are:

• Moneyline: The Browns have a 27% moneyline probability
• Spread: The Browns have a 50% probability to cover the 6.5-point spread
• Total: The game total is projected to go over 41.5 points

These predictions suggest that Chubb's return will not improve the Browns' chances of winning by very much.

For more analysis on this AFC East matchup, Ryan Leaver breaks down every betting angle of Browns vs. Bengals.

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