Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 9

After a week off for the international break, English Premier League action is back and this weekend brings another loaded slate of games. Our EPL soccer expert is ready to go with his English Premier League soccer picks for Week 9.

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded sportsbook account and to use multiple sports betting sites when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

Another international break has come and gone, which thankfully means we’re back to the good stuff (unless, for some reason, you’re inexplicably into the idea of watching Andorra play Romania). But, while I normally loathe the time off from real soccer, this break was slightly less bad only because my beloved Spurs got to spend TWO WHOLE WEEKS on top of the EPL table. Sure, you might say “top of the table in October means nothing, go win a real trophy,” but I’m a Tottenham supporter so my life is constant pain and I will choose to take the victories, no matter how small, when I get them.

I do have a bone to pick, however, with whichever idiot set the fixture list for this week. I understand that having eight teams in Europe means that you’re going to have to skew a majority of the games toward earlier in the weekend, but playing 8 of 10 matches on Saturday is an absolute fucking travesty. Maybe it’s not so easy? No, it absolutely fucking is. Liverpool dont play until Thursday, and three matches on Saturday are between teams who have nothing midweek. So thank you, fixture man, for piling every game on top of each other rather than spreading them out like a normal person. I hope someone pisses in your coffee, metaphorically speaking of course (but maybe not).

Now let’s gamble.

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 9

Nottingham vs. Luton: Saturday October 21, 10 AM EST

And with all those Saturday games to pick from, this is the one I’ve chosen. You’re welcome. In the spirit of honesty I‘ll admit that this game wasn’t my first choice to bet on, and possibly may have been my last, but you go where the board takes you and there are a lot of weird lines in other matches I just cant get my head around.

So what’s the value here between two of the worst teams in the league? Goals of course. And specifically BTTS at -106. This bet has two things going for it, in my opinion, that bring value to us as bettors. One is that neither of these teams is all that competent on defense, with Luton yet to keep a single clean sheet. And, more importantly, this is one of the few opportunities these sides are going to have all season to actually go after a match. A majority of the season for these clubs will be spent trying to weather the storm defensively to pick up a point where they can, but here either could (and possibly need to) win. With that in mind I see more aggression and goals.

Dimers’ angle is possibly related, but also could just be a completely different set of logic (Im not a mind reader, especially for things without minds). They see an over 2% edge on Luton ML at +475. The logic, I presume, is that you have two inconsistent and weak sides, making +475 an excessive payout. Or maybe the bot just doesnt like trees. Who’s to say really. On this one I’ll leave you with nothing to go on, and root for a 2-1 Luton victory.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Both Teams To Score (-106) - 1.06U 
🤖 Dimers' Model: Luton ML (+475) - 2.1% edge

⚽️ MORE: Nottingham vs. Luton prediction

Aston Villa vs. West Ham: Sunday October 22, 11:30 AM EST

I know they fucked us last week, but I’m jumping back on Villa TT because the value remains present. Villa play some of the most swashbuckling soccer in the league, and their 19 goals scored and 12 conceded through 8 matches paint a pretty solid picture. Sure, they didn't capitalize against Wolves, but they created the chances necessary and will have the additional benefit of home turf this time.

The Bot is much less ambiguous in this match relative to my opinion, in that it thinks I'm a moron. Dimers sees an edge in the Hammers ML at +270, and there are reasons to think that has merit. The Hammers also score nearly 2 per match and have looked far better in the league this year. Both are also looking ahead to tough midweek European trips, which often leads to odd results. I don't hate the logic here, even if I disagree with it.

For me, the aggression and quality of Villa are crucial, for the Bot it’s about high return for high risk on variance. I suppose we’ll find out.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Aston Villa TT Over 1.5 (-142) - 1.5U
🤖 Dimers' Model: West Ham ML (+270) - 0.2% edge

⚽️ MORE: Aston Villa vs. West Ham picks

Gambling can be an exciting way to engage with sports, but it's important to gamble responsibly. Remember, the goal is not just about making money, but also enjoying the experience. Avoid chasing losses and set limits on your wagers. Take breaks and prioritize your well-being. Stay informed about resources available to help you if gambling becomes a problem. Enjoy the Premier League matches responsibly, and best of luck with your bets! If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.