Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 6

The English Premier League season is underway and this weekend brings another loaded slate of games. Our EPL soccer expert is ready to go with his EPL picks for Week 6.

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded US Sportsbook account when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

Sometimes, gambling leaves you scratching your head. If you asked me about last week’s article, I’d say I made one very strong bet and one bet that didn't play out much like I wanted it to. And, true to that, I won one of them and not the other - it just happens that the better one lost and the worse one hit.

The reality of gambling is that it’s never an exact science and luck will be involved, which should factor in to both your pre-bet analysis and your post-bet analysis (or whatever the hell you want to call it). City metaphorically skull-fucked West Ham for the entire first half and simply decided not to score until the 46th minute (along with a couple of other second half goals), while Villa couldnt figure anything out until they scored three after the 86th.

Alas, sometimes gambling on sports truly lives up to the name - there is luck involved and results don’t always reflect performance. But I’ll continue to look for opportunities to put us in good spots and, if I do that effectively, we’ll come out ahead. 

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 6

Brentford vs. Everton: Saturday, September 23, 12:30 PM EST

I’m going to try my best not to fight with or disparage the model, since it’s both a much more sophisticated piece of machinery than I am and because that would be quite rude to Dimers. But, to be honest, I’m a bit perplexed by the idea that it sees Everton ML at an edge, even with a +360 payout. Sure, any bet has its price and 3.6 to 1 is certainly good money, but Everton’s only win this season was barely surviving fourth tier Doncaster in the EFL Cup and only losing to Arsenal by 1 doesn't impress me so much when you amass just 0.27 xG.

Instead, I will favor a bet that served us very well last season - Brentford TT Over 1.5, which sits at -110. The Bees certainly aren't the same side without Toney but they’ve continued to be aggressive and score goals at home, with five tallied in their three matches at Brentford Community Stadium (why they don’t call it 'The Hive' is beyond me). And, facing an Everton side with a single point and nine goals conceded in five matches, the price feels right as well.

Maybe there’s something to this game I’m simply not seeing - the Model certainly has the capacity and power to analyze much more data and a variety of factors in an objective way. But, on this one, we will have to agree to disagree and let the chips fall.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Brentford 1H TT Over 1.5 (-110) - 1.1U 
🤖 Dimers' Model: Everton ML (+360) - 2.8% edge

⚽️ MORE: Brentford vs Everton prediction

Arsenal vs. Tottenham: Sunday, September 24, 9:00 AM EST

Now it is time to disparage that stupid machine. Not because their bet is wrong, per se, but because they’re touting Arsenal to beat my beloved Spurs and I’ll be damned if I let a goddamn robot say such things on my watch!

In reality, the best bet by the bot probably makes a lot of sense. It sees a 5.4% edge on Arsenal ML at -140 (which is a HUGE edge) and Spurs have had about the softest schedule imaginable so far. If you twisted my arm and forced me to choose, I’d probably agree that the Gunners to win at home makes far more sense.

But, I will never admit that, so I’m going with Over 2.5 + BTTS at -130 because I think this game has goals. Why? That’s simply who Tottenham are under Ange. This bet has hit in three of their five matches so far, mostly against weaker teams, and it seems very unlikely that he reverts to a cautious tactical style (I doubt caution is even in his vocabulary). Arsenal will find chances, and likely goals, but Spurs average 2.6 scored per match, and have the benefit of extra rest with Arsenal playing a midweek match in Europe. Arsenal 2-1 doesn't seem crazy at all here, and lines up with both what the Model and I see. I’ll just hope my Spurs find a way to do more.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Both Teams To Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-130) - 1.3U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Arsenal ML (-140) - 5.4% edge

⚽️ MORE: Arsenal vs. Tottenham picks

Dimers' 👉 Best US Betting Sites 👈

Gambling can be an exciting way to engage with sports, but it's important to gamble responsibly. Remember, the goal is not just about making money, but also enjoying the experience. Avoid chasing losses and set limits on your wagers. Take breaks and prioritize your well-being. Stay informed about resources available to help you if gambling becomes a problem. Enjoy the Premier League matches responsibly, and best of luck with your bets! If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.