Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 21

This intro will inevitably trigger some responses about “stones and glass houses,” but I’ve always felt that when I get an opportunity to dance on the grave of a club I hate, I should take it. Spurs will ultimately fail to win anything come May, so the peak of my season tends to be the downfall of my enemies. It's not the best life, but it's the one I was given (technically I chose Tottenham, but whatever).

So whose death are we celebrating? Well, Chelsea have been in freefall all year and West Ham are unfortunately overperforming, so we are left with none other than the pile of garbage known as Arsenal. Over the span of two weeks, the Gunners have most likely pissed away their title hopes with losses to West Ham and Fulham while also getting knocked out of the FA Cup at home to Liverpool. And, to make it funnier, Arsenal produced more xG than their opponents in each game while scoring just 1 goal from 6.21 xG.

Arsenal supporters will probably say that there is still time for them to get back into the title or blow smoke about them winning their UCL group (one of the easiest groups of all time), but it’s hard to see this team walking away from the season with anything aside from the Arsene Wenger Trophy. Sure, Spurs will be right there with them soon enough, but for now we’re still in the FA Cup so I’m going to pretend there’s hope and drink to the downfall of Arteta (who is most likely calling the FA every hour to complain about a call).

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded sportsbook account and to use multiple sports betting sites when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

Now let’s go win some money.

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 21

Newcastle vs. Manchester City: Saturday, January 13, 12:30 PM EST

The bottom has pretty much fallen out from under Newcastle. After an impressive 2022-23 campaign the Magpies finished dead last in the UCL group and have lost 3 straight EPL matches (two of which were to Luton and Nottingham). How Eddie Howe is still employed I’m not sure, but good for him for dragging his slow, inevitable death. Granted, City also hasn't had a spectacular season, but “not spectacular” for them means 5 points off the top with a game in hand.

So how do we play this one? Well, both I and the BOT are both going a bit against the grain, but at way different levels. I think that, despite how dominant City should be, both teams will find the net. City will have the bulk of possession and find chances against a Newcastle backline that has looked awful of late, but Newcastle are still a strong team at St. James and average 2.3 goals per game there. While nothing to write home about, -146 is worth the price.

The BOT takes things way further and sees value for Newcastle +450 on the ML. Risky for sure, but the rationale is probably that Newcastle is still typically a nightmare to handle at home and City is not quite as good as they’ve been in years past. Do I see it? At +450 it’s obviously a longshot so I understand the value on the return, but it's a little too risky for my blood. Maybe take mine with a sprinkle on the BOT.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Both Teams to Score (-146) 1.46U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Newcastle ML (+450)

⚽️ MORE: Newcastle vs. Manchester City prediction

Manchester United vs. Tottenham: Sunday, January 14, 11:30 AM EST

Ah, yes, my beloved Spurs, a team who have been decimated by injuries and now have lost their captain for the Asian Cup because why the fuck not. This next month or two seems destined to be the stretch where my poor heart is inevitably crushed by my love for them and their ability to let me down, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it.

As for this game, I’ll start with the BOT, who can go metaphorically and literally fuck himself with his United ML bet. Is it rational? Maybe, but I will continue to be blinded by anger and hatred towards anyone who bets on Spurs to lose. Friends don't bet on friends to suffer!

As for me, I’m going with a very unusual bet but one backed by numbers. Spurs play a chaotic and offensive brand that leads to chances for all 90 minutes. And, in line with that, they’ve scored a first-half goal in 9 of their last 10 EPL matches. At -106 the price on them to do it again, especially against a United backline with loads of issues, is well worth it. They may still end up losing 5-2, but I think they find one in the first half.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Tottenham 1H TT Over 0.5 (-106) 1.06U
🤖 Dimers' Model: United ML (+115)

⚽️ MORE: Manchester United vs. Tottenham prediction

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