Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 19

It’s the holidays? Drink. Tottenham are playing again? Make it a double. I decided to wait to write this weekend’s articles until after all of the “Boxing Day” fixtures (a holiday that is apparently 3 days long now) finished, which gave me the opportunity to watch the Spurs trot out their impenetrable CB duo of Emerson Royal and Ben Davies. Needless to say, I am hungover as I write this.

But, to be fair to the English, we do owe them a debt of gratitude for playing games during this period when very few others do, because god knows how I would keep myself sane if I didn't have soccer to watch or gamble on. Sure, from a pragmatic standpoint, it would be nice if teams like my beloved Tottenham had time to heal their overflowing training room, but I imagine they’ve also hired inept physios to go along with everything else at the club so the players are probably no safer in there.

A happy holidays to all, and good luck to us as we finish off 2023 and move into 2024. Let’s end on a high note!

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded sportsbook account and to use multiple sports betting sites when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 19

Wolves vs. Everton: Saturday December 30, 10 AM EST

Doing this feels a bit dirty because of the sides, but I’m taking the over in this one. Traditionally, Wolves and Everton would be two of the last teams I’d be looking to take an over on and any club with Sean Dyche at the helm isnt a great candidate for lots of goals, but both Wolves and Everton have seen lots of finishing on both ends of the pitch lately. Maybe it's the fixture congestion leading to some tired legs or maybe old dogs are learning new tricks? Either way, I think plus money on an over here is too good to pass up.

My friend the bot has a slightly different approach, taking Everton on the ML at +170, and I think that has some validity. If not for the 10-point deduction Everton would be ahead of Wolves in the table, and their form of late, even in a couple of losses, has been pretty impressive. On the road, I find it a little harder to buy in on them but at +170 the price is certainly worth a look (or maybe Everton Draw No Bet for the risk-averse). A 2-1 Everton win and all's right with the world.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Over 2.5 (+101) 1U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Everton ML (+170)

⚽️ MORE: Wolves vs. Everton prediction

Fulham-Arsenal: Sunday December 31, 9 AM EST

The only thing that made my Thursday slightly better than it would have been was watching Arsenal somehow lose 2-0 to West Ham despite every single metric other than goals scored skew heavily in their favor. The Gunners amassed 2.87 xG, 74% possession, and 30 shots only to put up a big old goose egg. It was as miraculous as it was hilarious.

That said, I have to expect them to find a way to regress back towards the mean on finishing chances. It’s damn near impossible to not score with the level of production they had, and I think they can manage to find ways into the back of the net if they outclass Fulham, something they probably should do. At -150 for TT Over 1.5, the price isn't exactly going to blow your head off, but I would have put it closer to -200.

The OT is taking a slightly different route and grabbing Over 2.5 on the game total at -130. Arsenal have conceded at least one in 5 of their last 6 league matches so you get a slight price boost while only giving up the Arsenal 2-0 scoreline. That is, in all honesty, a reasonable choice. But I don't see Fulham scoring multiple without a red card here, so I prefer to grab that extra scoreline for a little bit of a price reduction. Either should work pretty well here.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Arsenal TT Over 1.5 (-150) 1.5U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Over 2.5 (-130)

⚽️ MORE: Fulham vs. Arsenal picks

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