Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 18

Well, the bleeding has stopped! After a couple of ugly weeks and an intro that somehow conflated gambling and sex, we got two bets to go in our favor last week and it felt oh so sweet (like losing your virginity? Fuck I need help). Granted, it wasnt exactly the cleanest of sweeps considering we needed a Brentford red to get us over the line, but a win is a win is a win.

Unfortunately, we also need to take a moment for a bit of sober reflection on what happened to Tom Lockyer last weekend. Just after our bet hit Lockyer suffered cardiac arrest that put an end to the match in what was a frightening event I’ve only seen once before (many of you may remember Christian Erikson’s similar episode). It is a reminder that, while we love sports and gambling and everything around this space (or maybe you hate it, I don't know), there are some things more important than winning or losing a few bucks. Take the time to appreciate it, especially around the holidays.

With that, let’s have another productive weekend!

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded sportsbook account and to use multiple sports betting sites when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

 

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 18

Luton vs. Newcastle: Saturday December 23, 10 AM EST

Well, after that last paragraph taking an opportunity to pick on Luton might feel a bit mean and poorly timed, but sometimes that’s just the way things go. And, while the events of last weekend could possibly galvanize them, I don’t expect it from an already thin squad who just lost one of their leaders. The Luton story has been great, but the reality is this team is almost certainly going to be relegated and Newcastle should have too much talent for them to handle.

The Bot and I are on the exact same page this week on both picks (spoiler), and we’re doing our similar dance of TT vs ML that somehow seems to be a persistent theme. But, just to outdo the bot, I’ve decided to grab a “mini ladder” of TT Over 1.5 (-146) and TT Over 2.5 (+240) while the bot “only” takes the ML at -150.

The biggest concern here is Newcastle’s impressively bad away form. They’ve picked up just 5 points from 8 away matches, which is absolutely shocking for a team that qualified for the UCL. But, while they don't get results, the goals do flow in those matches (14 scored and 17 conceded). Having just been knocked out of Europe, Newcastle took some anger out on Fulham last weekend, I expect them to do the same to poor little Luton.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Newcastle Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-146) - 1.46U, Newcastle Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+240)
🤖 Dimers' Model: Newcastle ML (-150)

⚽️ MORE: Luton vs. Newcastle prediction

Fulham vs. Burnley: Saturday December 23, 10 AM EST

Time to switch things up a bit. As a soccer capper, I’ve been honest about the fact that I prefer to bet overs. When one single goal is the difference between a hit or miss most of the time, it can be excruciating to sit there and pray for nothing to happen. But, It’s not necessarily the best strategy because it leads me to take some valuable unders off the table, and I’m committing myself to doing a better job of going both ways (only in gambling of course…).

So today we take our first under of the year, with Fulham TT under 1.5 at +112. The Cottagers have done some impressive damage in their last two home matches, winning each 5-0, but this is a team that scores well below two goals per game and, aside from those two matches, scored just seven goals in their first six games at home. The reality is that Fulham just arent good enough to score that much on a regular basis, and I see them regressing quite a bit here.

The DimersBOT semi-agrees with me, and is taking Burnley ML at +410. I imagine that they don’t see Burnley scoring three-to-four goals, which means that for them to hit Fulham would most likely need to go under as well. For both me and the Bot this seems to be a bet based on the pendulum swinging a bit too far on Fulham, putting the value on them underperforming.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Fulham Team Total Under 1.5 Goals (+112)
🤖 Dimers' Model:  Burnley ML (+410)

⚽️ MORE: Fulham vs. Burnley picks

Gambling can be an exciting way to engage with sports, but it's important to gamble responsibly. Remember, the goal is not just about making money, but also enjoying the experience. Avoid chasing losses and set limits on your wagers. Take breaks and prioritize your well-being. Stay informed about resources available to help you if gambling becomes a problem. Enjoy the Premier League matches responsibly, and best of luck with your bets! If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.