Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 17

Well, we’ve hit that time of the year where I have to give my version of the “birds and the bees” speech but for gambling. Well, the birds and the bees may not be totally on point, since sex isn't entirely relevant here, but as far as uncomfortable discussions that nobody wants to have this one hits the nail on the head.

The last two weeks, both here and generally, have been cold as ice for me as a handicapper. The reads are just not good, and its frustrating for everyone involved (kind of like going through puberty? Maybe this wasnt the best analogy…). But, the reality is, it happens every season. In fact, going over 3 months without a significant losing spell is pretty good as far as gambling goes. Despite what most cappers or Discords trying to sell you something will claim, losing is just part of the deal sometimes.

Does that mean we have to grit it and smile? Of course not. I’m trying harder than ever to break my way out of the rut because nobody is more miserable when I give out losers than me. But I also know it sucks for all of you, and I want to take a second to recognize that because I value anyone reading this and their money.

So, now that we’ve ripped off that band aid, let’s get this moving in the right direction and put an end to this gambling and/or sexual confusion.

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded sportsbook account and to use multiple sports betting sites when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

 

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 17

Bournemouth vs. Luton: Saturday December 16, 10 AM EST

Bournemouth’s last 14 days have been nothing short of bizarre. They started by drawing a Villa side who would go on to beat both City and Arsenal days later, then they easily handled both Palace and United on the road without conceding. To call it perplexing would be like saying the sun is hot.

So Bournemouth blow Luton out of the water right? I’m not sold. Not only is this run of form by the Cherries eventually going to end, but Luton have found a pretty impressive level of offensive quality of late which included a goal against City and 3 on the Gunners. So, between Bournemouth’s general uptick in play and Luton’s scoring I think BTTS makes sense at -130. Even with those recent shutouts both sides average about 2 goals conceded per game, and neither seems likely to keep a clean sheet.

The DimersBOT doesn’t quite agree with me, and sees some hefty value on under 2.5 at +124. The key, as I see it, will be whether this game breaks open early. The longer this game goes without a goal the more likely we are to see a tactical shift where both sides try to avoid the big mistake rather than going for it. Not exactly rocket science to say that early goals are good for a scoring prop and bad for an under, but without one team pushing like you would likely see from top half sides the risk is higher. Take your pick between me and the Bot.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Both Teams to Score (-130) - 1.3U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Under 2.5 Goals (+124)

⚽️ MORE: Bournemouth vs. Luton prediction

Brentford vs. Villa: Sunday December 17, 9 AM EST

As I mentioned above, Villa are on a pretty astonishing run of form and almost single handedly keeping the title race wide open. But their style of play in those wins over Arsenal and City was a change by Emery based on the opposition, and I would expect that Villa turn more aggressive against a weaker side. While Villa proved they can win defensively, they generally succeed by outgunning their competition (they have the worst defensive record of sides in the top four) and I think we see more of that here.

And, considering Brentford just lost to fucking Sheffield, the most inept side in the league, I think its a safe expectation that Villa can find some goals here. At -110 we get some strong value for a side who average over 2 per game, and I believe they break down the Bees.

The DimersBOT, once again, is calling bullshit. It sees value on Brentford ML at +230, which does have some merit given that Villa are far stronger at home than on the road. But for me the form of these two teams is a massive factor, and I’ll put my money on the team who have won four of five league matches, not the one who have lost four of five.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Aston Villa Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-110)
🤖 Dimers' Model:  Brentford ML (+230)

⚽️ MORE: Brentford vs. Aston Villa picks

Gambling can be an exciting way to engage with sports, but it's important to gamble responsibly. Remember, the goal is not just about making money, but also enjoying the experience. Avoid chasing losses and set limits on your wagers. Take breaks and prioritize your well-being. Stay informed about resources available to help you if gambling becomes a problem. Enjoy the Premier League matches responsibly, and best of luck with your bets! If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.