Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 16

Can one have too much of a good thing? It’s a question that has plagued the greatest of philosophers for centuries, and a sentiment that resonates with any soccer capper from the months of December to February. Now, dont get me wrong, the neverending stream of games we’re getting on a daily basis is fantastic. There is genuinely no better way to kill the work day than a few soccer bets as I survive the slog of my 9-to-5. But, as a capper, it comes with a side of sensory overload and makes writing these articles a bit more of a challenge.

As I write this article on Wednesday evening the EPL still hasn't completed all of its midweek games, and I’m trying to synthesize and analyze 20 EPL matches over the course of seven days to make sense of a new slate and find value. Sure, additional information can be helpful, but the extra fixtures also add in new variables like fatigue that can create weird outcomes. Am I up to it? You bet your tuchus I am! But it will take some hard work and adjustment on the fly to figure out what the fuck is happening and how to deal with Bizarre results like City getting blanked and Fulham scoring five goals in a match.

But no Cartoon is better prepared or more up for the challenge! Let’s fucking do this.

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded sportsbook account and to use multiple sports betting sites when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

 

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 16

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal: Saturday December 9, 12:30 PM EST

How much do you believe in Villa? Its a question that has plagued me a bit recently, as I try to time when the grind of a European campaign will inevitably catch up to them. Unfortunately (because I bet against them), that decline was not on Wednesday when they beat City in a pretty impressive performance. Can they do it again? It’s certainly possible, but I find it hard to believe they can take down the top-two finishers from last year in four days.

The Bot agrees with me wholeheartedly, and sees value in Arsenal ML at +110. A reasonable choice in my opinion, but one I think is a bit flawed for a couple of reasons. One is that I would be astounded if Arsenal won this game 1-0, particularly after how they played on defense Tuesday. And, in a similarly anti-Arsenal vein, I also could see this game ending 2-2 which makes the ML a bit more of a concern.

So, in both an attempt at rationality and with some hopeful belief that Arsenal will fail, I’m taking my standard TT route of Arsenal TT Over 1.5. The Gunners have won 6 straight, with multiple scored in 5 of those, and they have the best away record in the entire EPL. I’d be much happier if this game ended 9-2 Villa for my own selfish purposes, but any 2 goal result will do.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Arsenal Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-110) - 1.1U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Arsenal ML (+110)

⚽️ MORE: Aston Villa vs. Arsenal prediction

Everton vs. Chelsea: Sunday December 10, 9 AM EST

Speaking of confusing results from the midweek, Everton absolutely dominated Newcastle in route to a 3-0 victory at Goodison, and it seems their 10-point penalty has partially motivated them to get themselves moving up the table now. But, once again, the key for me is that books don't seem to have caught up to the fact that Chelsea have returned to pre-Tuchel style.

After a slow start to the year, each of Chelsea’s last 5 EPL games have had 3+ goals as well as seven of the last eight. In fact, of those seven games six have had 4+. So, while you would think over 2.5 would be shifting towards a low return, it still sits at a solid -136. Admittedly, I do see some risks here, most of them having to do with Sean Dyche and his woefully annoying tactics. And, if I had to guess, I think that’s why the Bot prefers Chelsea ML at +125 to my bet. But Chelsea haven't kept a clean sheet over that entire eight-game span and I think this game just skews higher.

Again, the preference would be complete and utter destruction of Chelsea because their pain is all I have left to live for now that Tottenham are back to Tottenham-ing, but beggars cant be choosers. I’ll be glad with the over however I can get it.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Over 2.5 (-136)
🤖 Dimers' Model:  United ML (+270)

⚽️ MORE: Everton vs. Chelsea picks

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