Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 14

Boy is this shaping up to be a hell of a title race. With City and Liverpool drawing a crucial game on Saturday morning followed by wins from Arsenal, Villa, United and Newcastle, the top seven teams are separated by just 7 points and nobody seems dominant enough to run away with anything at the moment. Well, unless there’s a trophy for “most goals scored from an offside position,” in which case Tottenham will absolutely curb-stomp the competition.

And, while I don't necessarily love talking up other EPL teams or their players, I would be a fool not to mention Garnacho’s absolutely PREPOSTEROUS bike on Sunday that left me, and anyone who watched it, speechless. Every year there’s a goal or two that reminds you just how fucking good these guys are, especially for those of us still grinding along in adult coed beer leagues where the play can barely be described as soccer, and I truly cannot put into words just how amazing that finish was. Begrudgingly, I tip my cap to you Garnacho.

But last week is in the past and this week is a new opportunity for Tottenham to lose (and for us to make some money). Let's do it.

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded sportsbook account and to use multiple sports betting sites when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

 

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 14

Burnley vs. Sheffield: Saturday, December 2, 10:00 AM EST

What a delightfully terrible soccer match we have here. Burnley and Sheffield are pretty clearly the two worst teams in the EPL, and their collective 64 goals conceded and -45 GD through 13 matches tells you almost everything you need to know. Only by the grace of the FA’s corruption is Sheffiels in 18th, with Everton 1 point below them after taking a 10-point knock for transfer violations a couple of weeks ago (still no word on City’s conduct…).

As for how the game itself will play, the question is whether horrible defense or inept offense wins out. And in my opinion, I think the defensive failures are more important. Not only have both sides proven they don't have the ability to defend coherently, but, given how few chances these clubs will have to pick up points, you can expect both to be somewhat more aggressive than normal. That should increase chances, and I don't expect the current quality of defending to hold anyone off. At -122, BTTS has good value and I expect at least 1-1 here.

The BOT is playing an interesting yet entirely different angle, taking Sheffield at +360 on the ML. That play has some value in my opinion, since you can’t really trust either side to produce 90 good minutes and either side could win this match. At +360, the return on the price is worth it as well. Take my bet for some safety, and tail the BOT for some risk.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Both Teams to Score (-122) - 1.22U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Sheffield ML (+360)

⚽️ MORE: Burnley vs. Sheffield prediction

Newcastle vs. Manchester United: Saturday, December 2, 3:00 PM EST

Did I take this game for the opportunity to talk about how both of these sides, who I rather dislike, managed to throw away their UCL chances in the midweek? Of course not! But, now that you mention it, Newcastle giving up a 98th-minute equalizer and United blowing a 2-goal lead to Gala were both pretty enjoyable.

Unfortunately, there isn't quite as much up for grabs (or to lose) in this one. That said, I see a high-paced game here and Over 2.5 is worth the price at -136. We took this exact bet in Newcastle’s home match last week against Chelsea, mentioning that they score well over 2 goals per game at home in the Prem, and they rewarded us with a 4 goal performance. Facing a United side who can't seem to defend against anyone halfway decent, I expect goals here. United will have to push for 2 or 3 if they want any chance of winning, which will lead to chances on both ends.

The BOT sees things slightly differently, and is taking United on the ML at +270. I would imagine this has a bit to do with the range of play you see from United, who are capable of impressive performances at their best and who seem to be much more comfortable domestically. In all honesty, it's not my favorite bet, but if United do win, I doubt it's a 1-0 or 2-0 victory so a cash for the BOT should mean a cash for me too, and I’m cool with that. Once again, a risk vs. reward decision here for deciding how to tail.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Over 2.5 (-136)
🤖 Dimers' Model:  United ML (+270)

⚽️ MORE: Newcastle vs. Manchester United picks

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