Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 13

And we have, once again, survived the international break. It’s sort of a lazy thing to talk about in my introduction since I do it every single article after the break, but for some reason, we’re still forced to watch France put up 14 FUCKING GOALS on Gibraltar because apparently that's a meaningful use of time, so here I am complaining again. That said, given the last EPL matchweek saw Tottenham give up two extra-time goals and lose to Wolves, my desire to talk about that weekend’s soccer is also not exactly high. Lose-lose situation, I suppose.

In fact, the coming months are something I am now starting to dread for the same reason they are the best months of soccer. We have nothing but constant club games from now until March (besides the wimpy leagues who take a break), which would be awesome were it not for Tottenham’s injury list being about as long as Santa’s Naughty/Nice list. But, from a viewing and gambling standpoint, we have hit the antithesis of the summer break (both literally and figuratively). There will be an endless supply of games to bet day in and day out, and I will be taking the teams up on the offer by doing just that.

So let’s celebrate the best months of soccer, and kick it off with a couple of winners (I hope)

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded sportsbook account and to use multiple sports betting sites when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

 

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 13

Newcastle-Chelsea: Saturday, November 25, 10 AM EST

I can't say that I’m exactly rooting for anything positive out of this match, which pits my least favorite club (Chelsea) against the newly rich Saudi Soccer Embassy located in Newcastle. That said, where there’s money to be made there’s money to be made, and I think over 2.5 has a lot of value here at -132.

Newcastle on their own have scored 27 from 12 and 14 from 6 at home, which would do a lot of the heavy lifting as far as getting us over the line. But, more importantly, we’re starting to see Chelsea slowly break out of the straight jacket placed on them by Tuchel tactically and the flowing soccer of Poch is starting to take hold. Chelsea still have some concerns with finishing, but they’ve found 8 goals in their last 2 matches against Spurs and City which gives me reason to think they score at least 1 here.

Naturally, the BOT thinks I’m a fool and is going with… wait, what? Does that say Over 2.5? Well, I’ll be damned. For the first time all year, the BOT and I are on the EXACT SAME BET, which either means it’s absolutely brilliant or this game is going to end 0-0. Let’s hope for the former, or we’re both going to have some explaining to do.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-132)
🤖 Dimers' Model: Over 2.5 Goals

⚽️ MORE: Newcastle vs. Chelsea prediction

Brentford-Arsenal: Saturday, November 25, 12:30 PM EST

Anyone who followed along last year knows that we made bucketloads of money on Brentford at home (buckets full of honey? Or bees? idk). And, while I want to believe that they do the same damage against Arsenal this week, I just don't see it. The Gunners have managed a European campaign and high expectations extremely well - producing consistent results -  much to my complete and utter disappointment. Now, they haven't exactly flourished offensively on the road in the EPL, with just 8 goals from 5 matches, but Brentford play extremely aggressively at home which should create chances for Arsenal to exploit. At -128 for TT Over 1.5, which Arsenal have hit in 8/12 matches, this should be a fairly comfortable expectation against a mid-table side.

As it loves to do to me, the BOT has gone with the ML instead of the TT, which sits at -120 for Arsenal. With Arsenal’s goal-scoring record on the road, it certainly has some validity. But given how high-scoring games have been at home for the Bees, I personally don't see a lot of value in a 1-0 result. So long as we don't get a jet-lagged performance coming off the international break (admittedly, a possibility) I think this game sees goals, and Arsenal are clinical enough to trust right now.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Arsenal TT Over 1.5 (-128)
🤖 Dimers' Model:  Arsenal ML (-120)

⚽️ MORE: Arsenal vs. Brentford picks

Gambling can be an exciting way to engage with sports, but it's important to gamble responsibly. Remember, the goal is not just about making money, but also enjoying the experience. Avoid chasing losses and set limits on your wagers. Take breaks and prioritize your well-being. Stay informed about resources available to help you if gambling becomes a problem. Enjoy the Premier League matches responsibly, and best of luck with your bets! If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.