Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for Week 11

It's tight at the top as we enter another week of English Premier League soccer, but never fear, because our EPL soccer expert is ready to go with his English Premier League soccer picks for Week 11.

Before we dive in, you should know that it definitely pays to have more than one funded sportsbook account and to use multiple sports betting sites when betting on sports, whether it be the best parlay bets available today, some EPL futures, or anything else!

As a scholar of the gambling arts and many other worldly disciplines (turtle stacking, underwater lava sculpting, the usual stuff), I have found it to be an undeniable truth that learning never ends. And, while learning typically means useful knowledge that can help me understand something better or answer an obscure question on “Jeopardy!,” it can also mean knowledge on avoiding how to make myself look like a jackass.

Last week (and for the second time this year) I looked at one of the Bot’s picks and stated “I haven't got a clue how they see value here and I’m clearly more intelligent than this dumb technology.” And, once again, I found out just how bad of an idea that is. Not only did West Ham look completely hopeless for a majority of the match, but Everton produced a Dyche-ian masterclass en route to a 1-0 win that made me look like a moron.

It wasn't all bad, in fairness. My Newcastle TT Over 1.5 proved an astute choice against the Bot’s Newcastle ML when the Magpies tied 2-2, but I sense there’s a greater moral to this story about dismissing my friend the Bot. I apologize, you beautiful pile of numbers and equations, and I will do better to appreciate and respect your opinions in the future, if only to avoid making myself look silly. And now, we gamble!

Time to dive back in with Dimers.com and our EPL plays of the week.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

Premier League Best Bets - Week 11

Brentford- vs. West Ham: Saturday November 4, 11 AM EST

One of the good and bad things about being a handicapper, rather than an algorithm, is that I tend to bring in external variables. Sometimes I think its incredibly useful, since watching teams and understanding more than just their number is a valuable tool that a machine doesnt have. On the other hand, it can present a false sense of reality and lead to mistakes. Hence, “good and bad.”

Sometimes, to try to mitigate the bad side, I look for picks where the numbers alone dictate what I want to do, and this is one of those moments. Simply, Brentford home games register a bunch of goals. In 5 matches they’ve scored 9 and conceded 8, which averages out at 3.4 per game. What about West Ham on the road? 8 conceded and 10 scored in 5, averaging out at 3.6. Over 2.5 is -138, and that number is more than valuable for me based on the expectations. See - easy and clean.

The Bot has gone in a different direction, finding some moderate value on West Ham Money Line at +240. And, in my opinion, that makes a lot of sense too. The Hammers are suited to win games that play open, not cagey battles like last week. If things get end to end it wouldnt shock me to see them steal 3 points. I think, in this case, both picks are rational and worth a shout (see how nice I was to the Bot? Not reward me!).

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-138) - 1.38U 
🤖 Dimers' Model: West Ham ML (+240) - 1.7% edge

⚽️ MORE: Brentford vs. West Ham prediction

Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa: Sunday November 5, 9 AM EST

The consistently nice prices we get on Villa are, to be honest, pretty fucking bananas. And, true to that, the Bot and I are doing our little dance again where we play the TT (-130) and ML (-110) because both of us see the same damn thing here. I’m glad to be back on the same wavelength.

With an intro like that, I must have some strong reasoning, right? Right. Villa sit 5th with 26 goals scored through 10 games, facing 16th placed Nottingham who have a -5 GD. -130 and -110 seem like a fucking dream with those stats, though things do get a little harrier when you look at Villa on the road. In 5 EPL Matches they actually only have seven points with six scored and a -4 GD. But most of their issues have come in a 5-1 loss to Newcastle and 3-0 loss to Liverpool, two of the top clubs in England.

They’ve managed wins against Chelsea and Burnley on the road this season, and have been more than capable in Europe on the road as well (see: 4-1 win at AZ). I think the EPL numbers as more of an outlier, and I expect them to find chances against a soft Nottingham side who should be fighting for relegation.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Villa TT Over 1.5 (-130) - 1.5U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Aston Villa ML (-110) - 53% probability

⚽️ MORE: Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest picks

Gambling can be an exciting way to engage with sports, but it's important to gamble responsibly. Remember, the goal is not just about making money, but also enjoying the experience. Avoid chasing losses and set limits on your wagers. Take breaks and prioritize your well-being. Stay informed about resources available to help you if gambling becomes a problem. Enjoy the Premier League matches responsibly, and best of luck with your bets! If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.