Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for MatchWeek 30

There are almost no circumstances where the arrival of an international break has me thanking the lord for giving me the gift of no soccer. But, every once in a while, the stars align (sort of like that eclipse thing I’m hearing about…) and it truly is a blessing. Why? Well, I spent 3 days last weekend in a nonstop blender of drinking, gambling, and college basketball in the depths of the Circa sportsbook with my father, and the addition of soccer gambling may have genuinely killed me. As it is I’m currently hanging on for dear life because my [redacted] year old body no longer has the stamina for debauchery it once did.

But, with 12 days off from real soccer (unless you count whatever the US did as “real”) I am now fully ready to return to my beloved EPL to right the ship after what was a terrible set of  bets two weeks ago (yes, I will acknowledge my failures and betting Spurs TT then watching them lose 4-0 to Fulham was about as low as I can go). So, with a full slate of games to choose from, lets find some wins and maybe some Advil to soothe this hangover which will not seem to go away…

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

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Premier League Best Bets - Week 30

Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace: Saturday March 30, 11 AM EST

It's not very often that I say this, but I found myself looking at the board this weekend and scratching my head a bit. I generally find that 10 games is more than enough opportunity to find 2 high value bets, but sometimes the board just isnt great. That said, with enough hard work and digging, I’ve come up with 2 that I think still have strong value. Do with that what you will.

To kick off Saturday’s confusingly large 8 game slate, we start with a bet on what is now an even more important matchup after Nottingham’s point deduction (because they’re the true financial criminals in the EPL…). Forest sit 18th after dropping down 4 points, and that is going to make the grind to survive even more difficult. Games like this one, at home to a bottom half side, become even more crucial, and I think that necessity opens things up a bit.

Nottingham have done their best to go the way of the turtle and stay safely in their shell this year, but I think the necessity (along with the recency of the penalty) will force their hand to be a bit more aggressive. They score well enough at home to expect them to find at least 1, but Palace should see a bit more opportunity and will be somewhat well rested off the international break. At -128 I think the value is strong based on the expected tactical approach.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Both Teams To Score (-128) - 1.28U

⚽️ MORE: Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace match prediction

Manchester City vs. Arsenal: Sunday March 31, 11:30 AM EST

 For round 2 of our picks, we have the premier (pun sort of intended) match of the weekend between two of the three sides fighting for the title. And, while the thought of any of these teams winning anything does not fill me with joy, I will admit that the idea of Arsenal winning this title literally makes my skin crawl (or maybe that’s just the bugs in the Gold Mine, we have some roaches down there).

So, now that I have absolved myself of any hidden bias, I will now go ahead and bet City TT Over 1.5 at -122. For me, this comes down to two crucial factors. One is experience. City know how to win titles and this game’s importance will not rattle them at all. Meanwhile this title would be massive for the Arsenal revival and the moment may weigh a bit heavy. The second is home field. As would be expected, all of these top sides score very well at home with City averaging well over 2 goals per game at the Etihad. I expect them to find their way to success here, largely due to their ability to break down the Gunners (yes, scoring is obviously important to winning games, I’m not claiming to have made any brilliant discoveries).

Be aware that my Spurs bias may be showing a bit, but I truly think the value on City at home here is worth the price.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: City TT Over 1.5 (-122) - 1.22U

⚽️ MORE: Manchester City vs. Arsenal match prediction

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