Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for MatchWeek 28

Look, I'm gonna be honest guys, this week I’m phoning it in on the intro. Pure stream of consciousness as I try to stay on top of work and gambling and pack for a weekend away with my beloved wife. Is that fair to all of you? Hell, I dont know. I dont get paid for this gig and I really have no clue if people read these or care so its hard to feel any sort of guilt. But as a matter of personal pride I’m laying it out there because honesty is what I do.

The picks, however, will not be phoned in. I take my betting seriously and that part of the article is WAY easier to write than a new cold opener every week. So, yeah, here’s a bit more filler to get through my standard 2 paragraphs like some high school kid trying to meet a word requirement. Have you heard the one about the fire at the circus? It was in tents….

Yeah I’ll see myself out.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

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Premier League Best Bets - Week 28

Crystal Palace vs. Luton Town: Saturday, March 9, 10 AM EST

The board this weekend is VERY back heavy as far as quality. Sunday has Villa-Spurs and Liverpool-City (more on that shortly), both of which have pretty significant implications as far as the title and top 4 races. Meanwhile, Saturday is headlined by Brentford-Arsenal… Maybe go to brunch with your significant other and buy some good will.

But, if you need some action like I do and have no hobbies outside of gambling and drinking, there’s Palace-Luton, a game nobody wants to watch. But hey, Palace did us a favor a couple of weeks ago when they found goals at Selhurst against Burnley and I think they do it again here. Luton have fared slightly better than Sheffield and Burnley, but they still give up over 2 goals a game and on the road it’s hard to expect much better. Palace have improved since the managerial shift and I see value in -125 for TT Over 1.5.

 The BOT, to my pleasure, agrees, but is content with the ML here at -130. Another tomato-potato situation, where either works so just pick your poison. Or take both if you want to get crazy as you fight through your Saturday morning hangover.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Palace TT Over 1.5 (-125) - 1.25U
🤖 Dimers' Model:  Palace ML (-130)

⚽️ MORE: Crystal Palace vs. Luton Town match prediction

Liverpool vs. Manchester City: Sunday, March 10, 11:45 AM EST

Now it’s time to do something a bit different. I’m sure everyone who cares about my picks is excited to see one for the big game this weekend, but I may disappoint you with the bet. No, its not and under, but just a little bit… weird.

This week Im dusting off a rarely used angle with the three way bet on “half with the most goals” and taking the second half at +100. Why? Well, I like this for two reasons. One is that these big matches with title implications tend to play cagey to start, and I expect both Klopp and Pep to be tactically cautious early. On top of that, both sides had midweek European fixtures and it wouldn't surprise me to see a bit of sluggishness out of the gate. So, between those factors and the fact that goals naturally skew towards the second half, I think this bet has some solid value.

The BOT goes a bit more traditional (both in the gambling and recent title winning sense) and is taking City ML at +130. On the road this is not going to be an easy fixture, but With KDB back it seems like there isnt anyone good enough to fully match up with this City side. And, given City cant really be content with just a draw, I think the angle does make some sense. Its not my favorite route for this fixture, which I think could really go any number of ways, but I’ll trust the BOT has its reasons on this one.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Half With the Most Goals - Second Half (+100)
🤖 Dimers' Model: City ML (+130)

⚽️ MORE: Liverpool vs. Manchester City match prediction

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