Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for MatchWeek 27

As I look out over the treacherous, vast landscape known as the gambling board, my eyes draw to and fro. I sit on my throne atop the highest peak, able to see diverse and magnificent lands in all directions as I scan over my territory. Each of those places calls my name. I am the master of my own kingdom.

And yet, my favorite backdrop - the tough yet delicately sculpted terrain of Britain - does not quite catch my eyes these days like it once has. No, as I cast my gaze over that place I am left empty, searching for hope where none can be found. And instead, I turn elsewhere; to the canals of the Dutch, the mountainous fortress of the Swiss, and even the glimmering coasts of Spain (often treacherous). My eyes seek out glory in other lands, hoping to satisfy my wanderlust and break free from the home which ties me down.

But here I return. To once again traverse and search out more answers in the land of England which I have come to call home even though it has never quite given me happiness. I will till this land as my forefathers have until my bones become dust and my name is nothing but a word written in history books. Such is my destiny….

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

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Premier League Best Bets - Week 27

Luton Town vs. Aston Villa: Saturday, March 2, 12:30 PM EST

Many of you may be confused after than intro, to which I will offer no answer. Just let that incoherent mess stew with you for a bit and enjoy it if you can. More importantly, I have also bridged the gap to bets which is what we’re here for, and we shall bet a match that has some intrigue both for top 4 and relegation (if Luton have any hope of surviving).

Unfortunately for the Hatters, I don't see this game having chance for success. Luton learned the hard way midweek that strong offensive teams are just too fucking good for them to handle, and Villa qualify as strong (especially against bottom half sides). And today we return to a strategy I havent employed so much this year but has its place - the mini ladder. Villa at -160 for TT Over 1.5 feels like a safe and responsible number, while TT Over 2.5 at +210 is risky but possibly lucrative. We balance them out by using the two together.

As for the BOT, the answer is pretty much the same. Villa ML at -130 falls in line with their standard approach, and that is where they are headed. Especially with an extra midweek fixture its hard to see how Luton take anything from this one, I think both approaches make sense.

⛏️ Sam’s Picks: Villa TT Over 1.5 (-160) - 1.6U, TT Over 2.5 (+210) - 0.8U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Villa ML (-130)

⚽️ MORE: Luton Town vs. Aston Villa match prediction

Manchester City vs. Manchester United: Sunday, March 3, 10:30 AM EST

Generally I try to avoid these big games in my picks, or, rather, they just don't tend to have any value. But here I think the price on BTTS is absurd at -138 so I will be hitting that like a white college girl slapping a bag of wine. Certainly you can expect City to score (likely more than once) at the Etihad, but their defensive record this year has generally been bad and they’ve been conceding to teams like Copenhagen and Luton in recent weeks.

United are, admittedly, an absolute dumpster fire and losing last week at the death to Fulham was both entertaining and pathetic, but they aren't bad because of their offensive abilities. City 2-1 or 3-1 seems like a reasonable take here, so I’ll stick with a safe play on BTTS.

The BOT, meanwhile, goes the opposite direction on United ML. And, to be honest, I don't hate it at +900. I’m fairly straightforward about when I think the BOT’s longshots are just a bit too much (see Burnley) but at that price for a Derby match I can certainly justify taking a crack at it. Is it one I would feel super comfortable with ? No, but its +900 so that’s kind of the point.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: BTTS (-138) - 1.38U
🤖 Dimers' Model: United ML (+900)

⚽️ MORE: Manchester city vs. Manchester United match prediction

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