Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for MatchWeek 25

One of the great paradoxes of being Prospector Sam is that the more I try to be serious the worse everything goes. For example, I’m often tempted to get up on my soap box to address the many flaws of Gambling Twitter these days, and I have in the past, but the reality is that NOTHING sounds less genuine than a cartoon character trying to claim some moral high ground. While I may have genuinely meaningful things to say (or not, I could just be stroking my own ego), the messenger sometimes matters more than the message.

So, while I would also love to get up here right now and discuss the quality of my picks last week despite only splitting, I can also recognize that I would just be wasting your fucking time and probably annoying the hell out of you. Who cares that the Wolves-Brentford game should have gone over - it didnt and those slime balls can rot in hell (too far? Ok, maybe too far). So, I shall speak with my pickaxe instead and go out and find more gold rather than blabbing about that time I almost found a 20 lb nugget in the river only to realize it was fools gold. That’s right, they call me the Virgil of prospector analogies.

To dare is to gamble!

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

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Premier League Best Bets - Week 25

Burnley-Arsenal: Saturday, February 17, 10 AM EST

Most weeks I spend my time complaining about what the BOT does, but this week I will commend the BOT for what I absolutely do not have the courage to do. To me, this game seems pretty straight forward. Though the Gunners may be looking ahead slightly to their trip to Porto for the UCL, its hard for me to see how Burnley have any prayer of making a dent here if Arsenal keep their form. Burnley are dead last in points taken at home this season and the gap in quality here is about as wide as the gap between Amanda Seyfried’s eyes.

And, while there isn't much value on betting Arsenal, Burnley to get blanked at even money feels very valuable. Burnley have found goals of late, but this team just isnt very good and I think its significantly more likely that they get shut out than not. As much as it pains me, I think the Gunners keep them off the board.

The BOT, on the other hand, comes out GUNS FUCKING BLAZING and says “I see your wimpy choice, Sam, and I raise you Burnley mother fucking ML at +900.” Talk about having some balls. I’m not really sure how that happens without a red card, but the look ahead in the UCL is a trap that teams fall into sometimes and if Arsenal dont come mentally prepared for this game its one that could bite them. I like my bet for making money, but I’ll be rooting for the BOT.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Burnley TT Under 0.5 (+100) - 1U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Burnley ML (+900)

⚽️ MORE: Burnley vs. Arsenal match prediction

Newcastle-Bournemouth: Saturday February, 17, 10 AM EST

Ladies and Gentlemen, it only took us 6 months but at long last the BOT and I have the exact same pick (yay, friendship!). And, funny enough, we return to the exact same angle we used last week except this time I will be taking the money line on Newcastle along with my robotic amigo at -115.

Why change my tune from Team Totals here? Well, one of the key analytical points for betting this approach is the gap between ML and TT. Generally the two are fairly close, but in some circumstances, like this match, the return is way better on one than the other. TT Over 1.5 is around -175, and the juice there is not worth the squeeze.

Sure, Newcastle could score a bunch here, and are also capable of giving up a couple themselves. But at home, facing a Bournemouth side who look to have run out of steam a bit and who have a -13 GD on the year, I think Newcastle winning is very likely whether it be 1-0 or 3-2. I, and the BOT, will focus only on the result this time and let the goals fall as they may.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Newcastle ML (-115) - 1.25U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Newcastle ML

⚽️ MORE: Newcastle vs. Bournemouth match prediction

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