Premier League Soccer Picks and Predictions for MatchWeek 24

And the title race is officially on… As it turns out, my assumption that Liverpool would handle Arsenal and turn this into a two horse race was wrong, with Klopp’s men pissing down their leg at the Emirates. The crown jewel of that performance, of course, was Arsenal’s second goal which saw both Allison and Van Dijk look like two Sunday league players who had taken down a few pints ahead of kickoff (still confirming whether they may have done so at half time), but on the whole it could simply be described as “inept.”

So now, once again, we have reached what is effectively a three team battle for glory between Liverpool (gross), City (gross, but with money on top) and Arsenal (just kidding, those fuckers have no chance). City with a healthy De Bruyne seem the most likely, though with multiple other competitions to navigate this adventure will probably take some extra detours along the way. Enough for Tottenham to sneak their way in maybe? No, of course not, they’re too busy giving up the most extra time goals in the history of the EPL (hahaha… please just kill me, I'm begging you).

A split decision last week, let’s get back to our winning ways.

MORE: Premier League Best Bets 

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Premier League Best Bets - Week 24

Wolves vs. Brentford: Saturday February 10, 10 AM EST

For people who watch a lot of EPL soccer and have a good knowledge of the players and talent on each team, there may be nothing more confusing than Wolves this year. A club that traditionally grinds their way through the season, Wolverhampton have scored and conceded 37 goals through 23 matches and they are playing - dare I say it - enjoyable soccer. So, while this might not have been a match at the top of your “to watch” list, it actually sets up to be a fun one.

And, given that lead in, I will of course be betting goals here with Over 2.5 which is sitting at -132. It feels like the books haven't quite caught up to the identity of this Wolves side, while Brentford don't exactly play cautious soccer either. And, with Ivan Toney back, you can expect their offensive production to tick up in the second half. I see an open match here, with goals on both ends.

As for the BOT, it sees some value on the Bees to take this game at +240. Brentford put in decent performances in their last two matches against Spurs and City despite losing, and, in a winnable match here, its not unreasonable to think they could find all 3 points. It’s a bit risky for my taste, but the logic is certainly there. Oh, and the last time I questioned a Bot ML pick it turned out to be really dumb, so I'm going to avoid that…

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Over 2.5 (-132) - 1.32U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Brentford ML (+240)

⚽️ MORE: Wolves vs. Brentford match prediction

Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle: Sunday February 11, 12:30 PM EST

God help me for walking back into this trap, but I’m walking face first back into this trap. Not only do Newcastle average over 2 goals per match in the EPL, but they’ve scored multiple goals in 6 straight matches. Sure, that does include a bizarre 4-4 draw against Luton at St James last week (shout out Eddie Howe for somehow keeping his job), but the reality is they are finding ways to score, often out of necessity because their defense resembles a bunch of 3rd graders on the playground.  

Nottingham are not an easy nut to crack at home, but they’ve been worn down by the grind of an EPL season and look out of sorts having had to play a number of FA cup games in recent weeks. Its a bit risky to trust the Magpies who have burned me a couple of times this year, but at -108 for TT Over 1.5 I’m willing to take the risk of looking dumb again.
And, as additional support, see none other than the Bot who likes Newcastle ML at +105. We are once again split on the best way to approach our bet (I’ve been burned by MLs one too many times when TT would have hit), but we both seem to be on the same page as far as logic. Unlike last week, you can probably work with either of our picks (or both) here.

⛏️ Sam’s Pick: Newcastle TT Over 1.5 (-108) - 1.08U
🤖 Dimers' Model: Newcastle ML (+105)

⚽️ MORE: Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle match prediction

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