EPL: Premier League Best Betting Picks for Matchweek 25 - February 25 & 26, 2023

The English soccer season continues to roll on and our EPL expert is back with his Premier League Best Bets for Matchweek 25. This week's article features Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool and Tottenham vs. Chelsea. Read on for our full analysis of this week's plays, and don't forget to check out our Premier League Bet Hub for probabilities and best bets for all of the weekend's action.

MORE: EPL Futures and Probabilities 

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For the love of Christ, City… Whenever I want you to fuck up, you don't - whenever I want you to do something right, you fuck up. I’m working with god damn amateurs out here!

To those of you who didn't watch anything last weekend or have been stuck under a rock up until this very moment (in which case, stop reading and seek help), City somehow managed to piss away the ground they picked up by beating Arsenal when they decided to put on a clinic in “how not to score” against Nottingham over the weekend. They created about 3 xG but scored just 1, and Nottingham managed to steal a point in the dying minutes which was kind of like watching a 32 car pile up in slow motion. That pain was exacerbated by the fact that Villa managed to blow multiple leads to Arsenal earlier that morning and then concede an own goal in extra time to lose.

So, after a glimmer of hope that the Gunners would contrive a way to waste their best chance at a title in over a decade, it’s all completely gone and entirely clear that nothing matters to Pep any more aside from winning a Champions League trophy. I am sad, and I am grumpy - basically the same way I always feel as a Spurs supporter.

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Matchweek 25 February 25 and 26, 2023 

Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool - Saturday, February 25 at 2:45PM ET

Speaking of teams who had a no good very bad day, Liverpool got absolutely fucking SLAUGHTERED by Real Madrid at Anfield in their midweek UCL match. Not only did they manage to lose by 3 goals, they did so after taking a 2-0 lead, a performance which can only be described using the word implosion and even that might not do it justice. Poor Liverpool has taken a bit of a tumble of late, and I’ll do my best to shed a tear for them.

As for this game, the real puzzle is how they respond. Liverpool have been sneaking their way up the EPL table as the teams above them stumble, but a match like the one they just played can jar the best of teams. Call me “optimistic” (in fact, the idea of rooting for them to bounce back is pessimistic for me but we’re just arguing semantics), but I think they right the ship. Their hopes of making another Champions League run are essentially dead, meining their focus will be squarely on the EPL and trying to fight their way into the top 4 again, and a date with a Palace side who haven't won a game in 2023 should be a welcome change.

Obviously there are concerns. Klopp is rumored to be on his way out with all the ownership upheaval and this team cant seem to stay consistent, but even with how bad everything went Tuesday they still managed goals and their weakness is clearly on the defensive end. So, with team total over 1.5 at -132 for a match where they should dominate possession and chances, I think we’re getting a strong price.

PICK: Liverpool TT Over 1.5 (-132, 1.5 units) 

Spurs vs. Chelsea - Sunday, February 26 at 8:30AM ET

Ahh, yes, Tweedle Dee and Tweedle “lets buy every player possible while still managing to suck.” This game has the making of an absolute shitshow, both because neither side can figure out how to play anything resembling consistent soccer and because both have crucial UCL second legs coming up that will heavily define the success of their season, so strap in for a wild one. As a betting man I wouldnt be surprised to see both of them fail in their continental quest, but they technically still have hope. It’s the hope that kills you, though.

The big question for this matchup is “who blinks” in the battle of failure. Spurs tend to play high scoring games where they create chances but concede to literally everyone, while Chelsea play some solid defense while remaining incapable of finding the net. Even though it means trusting Spurs, which is a bit like playing hot potato with a stick of lit dynamite, I lean towards the former. With very little to fight for in the EPL, I dont see Chelsea’s staunch defense clicking on all cylinders and I expect some legs to be saved for the midweek, while Spurs really dont look likely to change anything, both because they cant defend and because Conte refuses to make any changes ever. So, with that in mind, we lean towards both teams to score, and -134 isnt bad odds for how this game should flow tactically. If Spurs break the scoring then they’ll likely try to defend and fail miserably, while a Chelsea opener will lead to Spurs throwing the kitchen sink and likely finding one with all their firepower. So long as something happens before the 60th minute, we should be all set.

PICK: Both Teams to Score (-134, 1.5 units)