Premier League Best Betting Picks: Matchweek 24 - February 18, 2023

Another weekend of European soccer is here and so are our Premier League soccer best bets for Matchweek 24. This weekend, our EPL expert features Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City and Brighton vs. Fulham. Read on for our full analysis of this week's plays, and don't forget to check out our Premier League Bet Hub for probabilities and best bets for all of the weekend's action.

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Well, ladies and gentlemen, it’s just about crunch time in the EPL. With 23 weeks in the books we’ve gotten to the point in the season where teams have a clear threshold, and their goal is to come out on the right side of whichever line it is they’re chasing. And, generally speaking, there are 3 real goals; avoiding relegation, Top 4, and the Title. Sure, teams will still strive to hop into those 5-7 spots and a place in lower European competitions because the money is still important, but generally you dont see most clubs desperately hoping for a chance at the Europa League group stages and a December trip to Plovdiv. 

As of now, each of those 3 major benchmarks are still hotly contested. City’s win on Wednesday over Arsenal put the Gunners in full DEFCON 5, which was delightful to see and should make for a wild run to the finish. There are also somewhere between 3 to 8 other teams fighting for the UCL, depending on how deluded/optimistic about your team turning things around (Chelsea/Liverpool) or out kicking their coverage (Fulham/Brighton). And, most importantly, just 10 points separate 12th from 20th which will make for an absolutely chaotic scramble to survive the best idea in all of sports - relegation. 

I, for one, am both excited for the show and prepared for my Spurs to let me down once again. But with a few months until everything shakes out, let’s do some gambling.

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Matchweek 24 February 18, 2023 

Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City - Saturday, February 18 at 10:00AM ET

Since I’m writing these picks as I sit on a flight across the country using a tiny phone screen, I’m going to keep things short and sweet. If you love the fluff and Pulitzer-worthy word play I apologize, but the woman next to me has stolen my arm rest and I want to watch movies to forget I’m on a tube of metal hurtling through the air. 

Fortunately, this one is pretty simple. City will be cycling some players between their huge midweek match and their upcoming UCL tie, but no matter what permeation of their squad they put out it’s going to be far too good for Nottingham to handle. City should bludgeon them into the fucking ground considering they average nearly 3 per game, and Pep’s side has found some form after their bizarre loss to Spurs. City will come out and try to put this one away early, and against a completely outclassed Nottingham side that shouldn’t be an issue. Over 2.5 at +132 is a great price, and that’s where my money is headed.

PICK: Manchester City TT Over 2.5 (+138, 1.25 units) 

Brighton vs. Fulham - Saturday, February 18 at 10:00AM ET

Oh look, our aforementioned friends who have big dreams of beating the odds and sneaking their way into European football. As you might imagine, this tie is huge for both of them in that goal, and 3 points would go a very long way in making that dream a reality. The problem? I haven’t got a clue which of them comes out ahead. 

Both Fulham and Brighton have been very solid sides, but they’re also held back by some leaky defensive play and their success has largely come from scoring to paper over those cracks.

With that in mind, we head towards BTTS, which sits at a solidly priced -138. The cottagers and Seagulls average about 1.5 scored per game and over 1 conceded, so a goal a piece doesn’t seem far fetched at all. Fulham's ability to score on the road is slightly concerning, but they average well over a goal per game in their travels and Brighton are actually a bottom half side at home in terms of points gained. 

-138 isn’t a huge payout for us, but slow and steady gains are what it’s about.

PICK: Both Teams to Score (-138, 1.5 units)