Premier League Best Betting Picks: Matchweek 23 - February 11 & 13, 2023

We're back with some Premier League soccer best bets for Arsenal vs. Brentford and Liverpool vs. Everton this weekend. We're looking forward to seeing the world's best league back in action, and these matchups present some real opportunities for bettors to make some money. With that said, keep reading to find out what our expert has for these — along with some of his random musings. Also, make sure you check out our EPL bet hub, as our predictive analytics and artificial intelligence also have picks for all of the awesome matchups of Matchweek 23. Those computer picks can regularly be counted on to produce some profit for you. 

Before jumping on these plays, make sure you check out bet365's new customer offer! You can get $200 in site credit when you bet just $1. You're not going to find a better offer than that, as you barely have to put anything on the line to boost up your bankroll! 

Oh, Manchester City. You poor, completely unlovable bastards. This week has been a rough one for Oil Barron FC (one of many now, I suppose), and it started with an ugly loss to my beloved Spurs over the weekend. That loss had a twinge of self-inflicted pain because I bet City TT Over 1.5 on the assumption that Spurs would do what they always do and defensively collapse, but it turns out they are actually capable of holding it together for 90 minutes. Some money was lost, but on the whole I’m pretty happy with it.

City’s week then got far worse when the EPL announced that they were going to be sanctioned for a variety of violations that can be summed up as “we lied about everything related to our spending,” which carry a range of potential punishments from points deductions all the way to relegation. Do I think they’ll get much more than a slap on the wrist? Probably not, money talks in sports and the powers that be are unlikely to hurt a major cash cow. But the announcement likely means that something will happen, which is also less than ideal because a potential points deduction only helps Arsenal in their run for the title. Alas, beggars cant be choosers, and I’ll focus on the good parts of City’s pain rather than the bad. Hell, Arsenal are more than capable of messing things up on their own and I’ll be watching closely. Wouldn't it be a shame if something went wrong…

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Matchweek 23 February 11 & 13, 2023 

Arsenal vs. Brentford - Saturday, February 11 at 10:00AM ET

Based on that lead in, I couldn't possibly start with anything other than the Gunners match. And, while I would absolutely love to bet Brentford to come out and beat them into the ground, I’m going to be slightly more reserved and responsible. And, to be honest, there is enough value on this game to stick with a more reasonable approach.

Brentford are a decidedly better team at home than they are on the road…but they’re not exactly horrendous in their travels either. They’re still in the top half for points gained away and average over a goal a game, which tells me that they can still produce some effective play. I don't think that equates to a three-goal shelling, but they should be able to find at least a goal against an Arsenal side that have looked a bit more frail defensively and who are starting to realize the weight of their title run.

In the spirit of fairness, I also expect the Gunners to score here. They average nearly three goals per game at home in the league and, even with their bizarre goalless loss to Everton over the weekend (that was fun), they should manage to tally a goal here. This -112 is a crazy price for the tactics and quality I expect to see, and I’ll bet this one heavily based on the strong perceived value. Hopefully Brentford manage a couple and steal points.

PICK: Both Teams To Score (-112, 1.75 units) 

Liverpool vs. Everton - Monday, February 13 at 3:00PM ET

This game is fun to talk about both because it’s the Merseyside Derby, which is one of the biggest rivalries in the EPL, and because it lets me mention that both of these clubs are having a nightmare of a year. Liverpool sit 10th and look like a complete shell of the team they were a couple of seasons ago when they were winning trophies left and right, while Everton are scraping the relegation spots and are in a Chernobyl-esque panic. I don't exactly hate either of these clubs (though I will never forgive Liverpool for ending my one chance at true happiness and beating Spurs in the UCL final), but I also can get some joy out of watching them suffer.

As for the game itself, these two tend to go at each other’s throats and both fan bases are going to be looking for a performance out of their sides in a game that means a lot in terms of points and pride. The push we need rests primarily with the home side, who will be desperately searching for three points, but Everton should find some chances against a defense that just gave up three to Wolves. Nobody gives up three goals to Wolves...nobody. So, with that in mind, we’re grabbing Over 2.5 at -122, which feels like a solid number and one I expected closer to -150.

These two did play to a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture and if things stall early you may see a cagey match, but the moment is huge and neither have a trustworthy defense, so I think this one cracks open early. Should be a fun way to kill a Monday and avoid work.

PICK: Over 2.5 (-122, 1.75 units)