Premier League Best Betting Picks: Matchweek 22 - February 4 & 5, 2023

After a week without the Premier League, we're back with some soccer best bets for Brentford vs. Southampton and Tottenham vs. Manchester City this weekend. We're looking forward to seeing the world's best league back in action, and these matchups present some real opportunities for bettors to make some money. With that said, keep reading to find out what our expert has for these — along with some of his random musings. Also, make sure you check out our EPL bet hub, as our predictive analytics and artificial intelligence also have picks for all of the awesome matchups of Matchweek 22. Those computer picks can regularly be counted on to produce some profit for you. 

Before jumping on these plays, make sure you check out bet365's new customer offer! You can get $200 in site credit when you bet just $1. You're not going to find a better offer than that, as you barely have to put anything on the line to boost up your bankroll! 

I’m back! Did you miss me? Dimers kindly told me to take the week off from writing last weekend (and/or finally found a good excuse to get rid of me for a week because the EPL was on hold for FA Cup matches), so I took that opportunity to be lazy and watch an extra hour of TV rather than writing.

To be honest, I have no idea how much people read these articles or even care. I’m regularly told by people in Discord that they just look at the picks and skip the three measly sentences explaining my reasoning, so it wouldn't shock me if these full-blown articles were more of a nuisance to people looking for bets than actual value. But guess what? I do not care.

As with all things involving sports and gambling, I am here to have fun. You should be too. And, in all honesty, writing is probably my favorite part of this character. I’m not much of a reader, but short-form pieces are something I’ve always enjoyed going back to years scouring ESPN or following Barstool, and I’ve tried my best to take up that mantle of putting out quality content involving humor mixed with sports. If even a few people enjoy and look forward to my articles the way I used to, it’s good enough for me. So to those of you reading this who fit into that category (I hope you exist), thank you. I appreciate you indulging me and hope you get as much out of it as I used to as a reader.

With that oddly earnest speech out of the way, let's boogie!

Premier League Best Betting Picks - Matchweek 22 February 4 & 5, 2023 

Brentford vs. Southampton - Saturday, February 4 at 10:00AM ET

This isn't exactly the most exciting game on the Saturday EPL slate, but it’s one that has some strong value. That value can be traced to two specific factors, which I will now break down.

The first is that Brentford are an entirely different team at home than they are on the road. The Bees score 2.0 per game at Brentford Community Stadium (what a stupid name) compared to just over 1.0 on the road, and a home match with last place Southampton doesn't seem destined to buck that average. Apparently these bees thrive in the hive.

Southampton, meanwhile, have also had three fixtures over the last 10 days between the two EFL Cup legs and an FA Cup match, while Brentford have had two weeks to rest and recover leading into this tie because they had already been bounced from both of those competitions. To sum things up: you have a home team who scores well on their own pitch, facing the last placed team in the league who is working on very tired legs.

I'm going with 2+ goals for Brentford is -104, so no need to complicate it.

PICK: Brentford TT Over 1.5 (-104, 1.25 units) 

Tottenham vs. Manchester City - Sunday, February 5 at 11:30AM ET

Ah, yes, my beloved Spurs. The team who I’ve followed for a decade and a half begging for any sort of success to make my fandom a happy experience. The team who, despite repeated attempts to find glory through new managers and new players and even a new stadium, has never managed to win a damn thing in 30 years when they last won the FA Cup. They are, to put it kindly, about to get bent over a barrel.

I considered how I wanted to attack this game from a risk and tactical standpoint, and I think there’s a lot of value to be found. City are only about -140 on the money line which is shockingly low considering they just played each other and City put up four second-half goals while cutting through Tottenham’s defense like a knife through butter, but the goal totals look even nicer so I’ll go with that angle. A ladder might even be warranted, but for the sake of safety and my own sanity I’m going to stick with a risk averse number and bet City TT Over 1.5 at -150, which honestly seems like an impossible number for them to miss.

Even taking City, the highest-scoring team in the league, out of the equation, Spurs don't seem set up for much success defensively. They’ve conceded 31 goals in 21 games and rarely keep clean sheets. So a visit by City, who average over 2.5 goals and just put up four goals in this matchup a few weeks ago, should mean at least two. I have no idea what’s up with this number, and I’ll at least make some money while my beloved club get beaten to a pulp.

PICK: Man City TT Over 1.5 (-150, 2 units)