Premier League Best Bets for Saturday, December 31 and Sunday, January 1

The return of Premier League action means that you can now come back to Dimers for some of our best bets of the weekend. It was about Day 3 of the World Cup when I realized that the load of international garbage being thrown at me, wrapped up in a fancy, oil-covered bow, wasn’t going to suffice. Sure, as a soccer fan there is a special allure to the biggest sporting event in the world and the novelty of getting to root for your home country to win a trophy (or, in our case, root for them to not embarrass themselves), but the reality is that the quality was way lower and the low quantity of games to choose from makes it very hard to find value on a day-to-day basis.

But fear not, my wholesome and loving drove of followers, because club soccer has returned and you no longer have to talk to Janice from accounting about that “super exciting” game she watched with her family last Saturday before her tennis match (I’m not sure why, but Janice is a country club mom in my brain. Roll with it).

Unfortunately, club soccer isn’t quite all the way back. A few leagues have kicked things off while a couple will roll in a bit later on (next week) after a slight break, and then there’s the Bundesliga where there is inexplicably no play until almost the end of January. Must be that Germany’s long run in the World Cup tired them out. 

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming with our Premier League picks!

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RELATED: Premier League Bet Hub 

Premier League Best Bets - December 31 & January 1

Wolves vs. Manchester United: Best Bet

Kickoff: Saturday, December 31 - 7:30AM ET

For our first article back, I’m going to keep things simple. There are hardly any other leagues playing this weekend so I’ll skip the “adventurous” pick, and our bets in the EPL are going to follow a very understandable and simple theory (honestly, one that almost any half-assed handicapper would give you, but sometimes the simplest approach is the best).

That theory, as you might have gathered from the parenthetical, is “bet good teams to score goals against bad teams.” It’s not particularly creative to expect United, the biggest soccer brand in the world, to score against a side fighting relegation. In fact, it’s the kind of bet that generally gets people into trouble if they don't do enough research. But here, it actually makes sense and has some solid value at +104, which is why we’re pulling the trigger.

United have been excellent at winning easy games this year and they proved it again last weekend with their 3-0 win against Nottingham. Wolves are a slightly better side than the pack of trees, but Wolverhampton’s win last weekend over Everton is slightly blurring the fact that this team is a pile of garbage. They have better defensive chops than your average relegation side, but they’re worse on that end than they’ve been in the past and United are going to throw the kitchen sink at them for 90 minutes. I don’t think Wolves have the strength to hold up to that anymore, and I (unfortunately) expect the Red Devils to find two here.

Bet: Manchester United Team Total Over 1.5 (+104, 1.5 units)

Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea: Best Bet

Kickoff: Sunday, January 1 - 11:30AM ET

Speaking of things that make me feel dirty, step 2 of our extremely simple plot to take over the world (aka win money gambling) is to bet Chelsea to score two goals against Nottingham. Quite honestly, I’m not sure this one even requires all that much explanation and delving into it is a bit insulting to anyone who’s watched Nottingham this year. But that’s what they pay me to do (not really, but in theory they would pay someone for it) so I’ll give a little color.

Essentially, Nottingham Forest are horrible. And by “essentially” I mean watch them play and you will be slightly embarrassed for them and slightly angry that they exist. Nottingham give up over 2.0 per game and a date with a traditional top English team should be a recipe for disaster. Where is the hitch? Well, Chelsea haven’t been all that good this season and there’s reasons to doubt they’re a club strong enough to compete for the Top 4 this season. But the key, for me, is the benefit they got from the World Cup Break.

Bringing in a new manager mid season can be brutal, but Graham Potter just had a month and a half to sort out his squad and get some tactical work with the players who didn't travel, which is a huge benefit to him and the team. I don’t expect them to turn into juggernaut, but I think that factor is crucial and should result in some positive variance for Chelsea before the books start to catch up. Give me Chelsea to score two here as well (God, please forgive me for I have sinned).

Bet: Chelsea Team Total Over 1.5 (-122, 1.5 units)