Predictive Analytics Model Likes Rory McIlroy to Win 2022 British Open Golf Championship

Scotland is the birthplace of golf, with shepherds first hitting rocks on its terrain dating back to the 15th century. The Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St Andrews has been hosting Open Championships since 1873, 29 tournaments in all, usually five years apart. And now, as the 150th Open Championship sets to tee off, the question becomes: who has a chance to win this thing? 

Dimers.com contributor Kent J. Landry looks at some of the best bets, as well as players to avoid, ahead of this weekend's final major of the 2022 season.

As we look at the players who have the best shot to win, it is a good time to sign up with DraftKings Sportsbook, where now you can sign up, place a $5 bet  ➡️ here ⬅️ and get $100 in free bets, no matter the outcome of your original bet.

2022 Open Championship Best Bets to Win

The hottest player on the planet right now is none other than the X-Man, Xander Schauffele (+1600), and since the Dimers.com Bot runs 10,000 simulations to predict each outcome, it’s no surprise that Xander comes out with the third-highest percentage (5.3%) to win the Championship. He has won the last two PGA sanctioned events in which he’s played and has also won a Pro-Am, giving him three straight wins when he has teed it up.  

Schauffele the form Open pick as McIlroy again seeks end to drought. https://t.co/mFDXKFfNWf

— Standard Sport (@standardsport) July 13, 2022

My personal picks for this week also align with DimersBOT simulations, as I like Rory McIlroy (+1000), who our system has at No. 1 with an 8.7% chance to win, and Jon Rahm (+1800), who ranks sixth with a 4.7% chance.

McIlroy has played some great golf at the majors this year, finishing Top 10 in each, and I think he’s as focused as he’s been in years on winning. Rahm can pummel this course with his length and has the overall game to get it done, even if his iron play has let him down as of late. If his putter stays hot — and his temper not — he should be in contention come Sunday.

I don’t think John Rahm liked that shot… pic.twitter.com/Aj2zA8xm7m

— Average Joseph 🌻 (@avg_joseph) July 8, 2022

2022 Open Championship British Favorites

Of course, if you’re from the United Kingdom, winning the British Open is on your list of most meaningful accomplishments, so a native player’s run can be kind of magical — just ask Darren Clarke (Open Champion, 2011) and Shane Lowry (Open Champion, 2019). So, don’t be surprised if the Irishman Lowry (+2200) or Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood (+3500) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200) have good showings this week. 

One bettor put $500 on Tommy Fleetwood to finish top 5.

Payout? $9,500 💰 💰 💰 pic.twitter.com/sf3J4vk8fM

— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) July 11, 2022

2022 Open Championship Dark Horse Picks

Dark horses are always fun to pick, even if they are rarely profitable. Since it means big bucks and continuing on the theme of “home-field advantage,” take a look at 50-year-old Padraig Harrington (+20000) tickling in some putts and entertaining us with his great Irish brogue. Remember Tom Watson’s run in 2009 at the ripe old age of 59? Of course, that was at Turnberry and not St. Andrews, but you get the idea. 

Seamus Power (+8000) and Justin Rose (+6600) also fit the bill here and may be worth throwing a couple of bucks on for a nice payout. 

Another fun bet to roll with is Dimers' BetMGM offer. Bet $10 ➡️ here ⬅️ and win $200 on any player’s birdie.  

Players To Stay Away From

As much as it pains me to say this, I don’t think Tiger Woods (+8000) has a legitimate shot to win this week — even if it's hard not to take a flier on him at 80-1. I do think he makes the cut and has a good showing, but vying for the title is a little out of reach, at least this year.  

I also am not excited about Justin Thomas’ (+2200) chances this week, even though Dimers.com simulations have him with a little better than a 4% chance to win. He’s a great player and undoubtedly one of the best in the game, but I feel he has sort of packed it in for the year. He’s fought hard, won his major, and now he can kick back and enjoy the fruits of his labor, which he has been doing lately.  Plus, his track record at The Open Championship is less than stellar.

Finally, I would avoid all the LIV golf guys, with the exception of Dustin Johnson (+3500). 

Great team win last week @LIVGolfInv. pic.twitter.com/ChLpW36Jc3

— Dustin Johnson (@DJohnsonPGA) July 6, 2022

Most of these guys are either older, have major flaws in their game, or are coming off injury. Also, have you seen the jets these players are flying around in? How hungry can they be?  

The LIV jet. Absurd pic.twitter.com/QFq7cbqEO1

— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) July 8, 2022

Johnson might be the only one with the game and temperament to rise above all noise surrounding the upstart league.

Keep An Eye Out For These Golfers

As always the case, I believe Tony Finau (+5000) has the game to win a major, so why not this one? He has played well in the Open before and keeps an even keel. And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the defending champ, Collin Morikawa (+3000), who also has the right temperament and game to play well at St. Andrews.

We shall see which way the wind blows this weekend at the Old Course, allowing it either to show its teeth or be rendered a pitch and putt. 

But no matter if the scores are high or low, no worries — just sit back, have a spot of tea, enjoy the scenes of St. Andrews and listen to the bagpipes blowing.  

Take it all in, for golf is home once again. 

2022 British Open Championship Odds And Probabilities

Player Name	Win Probability	BetMGM Odds
Rory McIlroy	8.7%	+1000
Scottie Scheffler	5.8%	+1800
Xander Schauffele	5.3%	+1400
Patrick Cantlay	5.1%	+2500
Matt Fitzpatrick	4.6%	+1800
Jon Rahm	4.5%	+1800
Justin Thomas	4.1%	+2200
Cameron Smith	3.8%	+2500
Will Zalatoris	3.1%	+3000
Shane Lowry	2.9%	+2200

You can get great odds on Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler or anyone else ➡️ here ⬅️ with DraftKings Sportsbook.

2022 Open Championship odds and probabilities correct at the time of publishing.