Predicting Who Will Be the NFL's Last Winless Team in 2023

By this time next month, the 2023-24 NFL season will be all systems go. Preseason is underway and football fans and bettors are hungry for the real thing. With the unpredictable nature of preseason games, it’s not really a market we love betting on, leaving us to sort through the dozens of NFL futures markets offered by the best U.S. Sportsbooks to get involved. Fortunately for us (and our loyal readers), we love futures markets as they offer some of the best plus-money value on any given team. Plus, if you really do some digging, you’ll find specialized markets that offer longer odds than what you’d regularly get in a more straightforward market. Win totals are a perfect example of this.

Win total markets are a fun and engaging way to get some long-term action on the NFL season. By wagering on a team to go over or under their season-long win total, you could have a ticket in your pocket that’s in play from Week 1 all the way until Week 18. If your team vastly overperforms, you might even cash barely more than halfway through the year, and there’s no better feeling than an early hit.

RELATED: Good Call or Bad Call: Five Popular NFL Win Totals

Speaking of early hits, while sorting through the various win totals offered by the books, we’ve found a super intriguing market that allows us to get action on some of the lesser teams in the league with some wagers that will likely be settled within the first two months of the season. That particular market is the Last NFL Team to Get a Win, the team who will rep the "0" in the win column the longest.

By using the power of our model’s predictive analytics and data provided by 1000s of season-long simulations, we’ve found multiple opportunities with good value in this market. There are a handful of no-brainers out there like the worst teams in the league and some may be on this list, but we’re trying to truly find the best plays based on value. We’ll identify the teams most likely to struggle early on by analyzing their most frequent records through five weeks based on our model, then look at their schedules and the best odds available.

Now, we know you probably already have an account with one of the leading sportsbooks here in the US, but it definitely pays to have more than one funded account when betting on sports.

Find out which books are best, who has the best new customer offer, and how you can secure better odds and lines for all of your bets, below.

👉 The Best US Betting Sites 👈

 Arizona Cardinals (+460)

Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5
@ WSH	vs. NYG	vs. DAL	@ 49ers	vs. CIN

DimersBOT’s most likely record through five weeks: 1-4

The Cardinals are the favorite in this market (and others like it). Our model largely agrees with the general consensus that the Cardinals will toe the line of the NFL’s worst team in 2023. They have a new head coach, lost WR DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler Murray’s return from a torn ACL is up in the air and they face superior teams in their division. It’s as uphill of a battle as a team can have before the season has even begun, so if you want to go ahead and bet the favorite in this market, we would understand.

At +460, you’re getting a pretty good price for a team with a difficult opening schedule outside of their Week 1 basement battle against the Commanders. Their most likely record through five weeks is 1-4 per our model, with their average wins coming in at 1.46. This is a solid play based on their low ceiling and even lower floor, but if they manage to scrape out a Week 1 win against the Commanders, who could be one of the NFL's worst teams, this ticket is dead from the start.

MORE: NFC West Preview

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1100)

Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5
@ MIN	vs. CHI	vs. PHI	@ NO	BYE

DimersBOT’s most likely record through five weeks: 1-3

As touched on in our NFC South preview, this is a Bucs team that looked lost with Tom Brady under center last season and there’s simply no reason to expect any improvement with Baker Mayfield as their starting QB. Mayfield has only led a team to a winning season once and hasn’t looked anything remotely resembling that caliber of QB in the years since.

DimersBOT gives the Bucs an average of 1.41 wins through the first five weeks of the season and the reason they make such a good play in this market isn’t just because they’re likely to be a bottom-five team in the NFL, but because they have an early bye in Week 5. If the Bucs are 0-4 heading into the bye week, any other remaining winless teams would have a chance to pick up a win while the Bucs are off, effectively giving you one week where you can’t lose. And after that bye, Tampa Bay will draw a matchup with the Lions, so it doesn’t get any easier for them.

Las Vegas Raiders (+1800)

Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5
@ DEN	@ BUF	vs. PIT	@ LAC	vs. GB

DimersBOT’s most likely record through five weeks: 2-3

The Raiders get a projection of 2 wins through five weeks per our model, though just over that number at an average of 2.07 wins. While it’s not the lowest projection, we’re getting a much better price on the Raiders compared to the other teams with similar win projections from our model like the Commanders (+1100) and Rams (+1200).

Las Vegas opens up the year with two road games, against a Broncos team looking to make a statement after last year’s debacle and then against the upper-tier Bills. That’s a good start when chasing a team to go winless. Their Week 3 matchup with the Steelers could go either way, as well as their Week 5 matchup with the Packers (more on this game later). With Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm and some uninspiring talent on offense outside of Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, this team could find themselves playing catch-up often in the early days of the season.

New England Patriots (+2500)

DimersBOT’s most likely record through five weeks: 2-3

Tough start to the season for the Patriots, whose only “relief” through the first five weeks is when they return home after a two-game road trip to play the Saints in Week 5. We don’t know what type of team the Saints will be, but we have a good enough idea of the Patriots. Mac Jones is not a good quarterback and this is not an easy schedule.

Though we project them for a 2-3 record, that’s rounded up from their average of 1.87 wins, so there are still plenty of occurrences in our model’s simulations in which they finish with a singular win or even none. It may be tough to get behind the idea of fading Bill Belichick for five-six weeks in a row, but if you’ve also bet the Raiders and both these teams make it to Week 6 without a zero in the win column, you’ll end Week 6 with a win or a still active ticket.

Green Bay Packers (+3100)

Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5
@ CHI	@ ATL	vs. NO	vs. DET	@ LV

DimersBOT’s most likely record through five weeks: 2-3

The longest odds of any of the teams in here and also the least likely to do so based on our model’s projections, but we like this look for the odds. Green Bay kicks off a new era this year with Jordan Love taking over the offense from Aaron Rogers. Love has barely played at the NFL level since being drafted in 2020 and now gets thrown into the fire. Starting out with two road games (albeit against sub-.500 teams from last year), this offense could struggle to click in the first several weeks.

If this team makes it to Week 5 at 0-4, they’ll meet up with our pick at +1800, the Las Vegas Raiders. Like our Patriots-Raiders scenario, we could end up holding a ticket for each team in this matchup, meaning in a worst-case scenario one ticket loses and the other is still in play. Even further, if the Packers drop this matchup and fall to 0-5, then they have a Week 6 bye, giving us a sweat-free ticket until Week 7.

Quick Hits:

• The Commanders are an intriguing play based on our average of 2.02 wins, but their value isn’t as good (+1100) and they get the Cardinals right off the bat in Week 1. If you take the Cardinals at +460, a half or quarter-unit on Washington isn’t a bad move.
• The Browns fall under the two-win by average (1.92) and get the Week 5 bye that gives the Bucs such a boost, but they could grab a Week 1 win vs. the Steelers and there are more likely teams to go 0-5.

• The Seahawks are also a bit of a fun look given their Week 5 bye and great +3100 odds if you think they come out flat, but they do get the Rams and Panthers in the first three weeks of the season, which look like wins on paper, plus our model doesn’t support them as much, giving them an average of more than two wins in the first five weeks.
  
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