Point & Counterpoint - Mavericks vs. Suns - May 10, 2022

The 2022 Western Conference Semifinals series between the Mavericks and Suns is headed back to Phoenix after the Mavs rallied from 2 games down at home to tie up the series over the weekend. With a pivotal Game 5 ahead of us tonight, we make the case for both teams.

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Game 5: Mavericks (+6) at Suns

Western Conference Semifinal Tied 2-2

Tuesday, May 10, 10PM

Why the Suns (-6) will cover

The Suns proved they could respond in a pivotal Game 5 in the first round, holding off the pesky Pelicans, winning and covering a 6.5 point spread.

The Suns are 50-42 for the season against the spread and have the best home record in the NBA at 36-10.

Phoenix point guard Chris Paul has been lights out in the fourth quarter at home, and after a series of questionable calls fouled him out Sunday, expect a big showing from the future Hall of Famer.

Why the Suns (-6) won’t cover

The Mavericks have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games, the only two failures being Games 1 and 2 of the Conference Semifinals in Phoenix.  Dallas is an impressive 53-38 this season against the spread.

Dallas point forward Luka Doncic has found plenty of help since returning from a leg injury that kept him out of the first two games of the Utah series, averaging 7.4 assists per game to the scoring benefit of role players like Dorian Finney-Smith, who is averaging 13.4 points per game in the playoffs after just 8.2 in the regular season.

pic.twitter.com/O4f6lkWwEW

— x - Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) May 9, 2022

Why the Over (213)

The two Suns wins at home were the only games of the series that yielded the Over and in the final three games of Dallas’ series with Utah, the Under carried the day.

Why the Under (213)

Even 14 first-half three-pointers weren’t enough to deliver the over in a fast-paced Game 4, so it’s hard to imagine what figures to be a more intense, defensive struggle to go far into the triple digits. Seven of the Suns’ last five regular season games of the regular season went the way of the Under.

The X-Factor: Jalen Brunson, Mavericks G

In Game 1 and 2 losses in Phoenix — the only two in the last nine games Dallas hasn’t covered — Brunson averaged just 11 points and 2 assists, while playing an average of just 28 minutes.

In the previous seven, Brunson has been spectacular, averaging 31.5 points per. 

What kind of night — and how many minutes — Brunson has could make all the difference.

🏀 Projected Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 box score
✍️ Betting Preview: Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5

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