Point & Counterpoint - 76ers vs. Heat - May 10, 2022

The 2022 Eastern Conference Semifinals series between the Heat and 76ers continues in Miami tonight with the series tied at 2-2; a far cry from the last time these two teams played in The Magic City when it was the Heat who were in formidable form through the first two games where they established a 2-0 series lead before the return of Joel Embiid in Philly. Now, with both rosters at near enough full strength, we analyze the chances of each team in Game 5.

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Game 5: 76ers (+3) at Heat

Eastern Conference Semifinal Tied 2-2

Tuesday, May 10, 7:30PM

Why the Heat (-3) will cover

Home teams in pivotal Game 5’s win well over 80% of the time and Miami has defended its home court as well as anyone in the league. The Heat are 25-21 at home against the spread this season. Jimmy Butler continues to play lights-out, going for 40 on 65% shooting in Sunday’s Game 4 loss, continuing a trend of four straight games with increasing points.

Philadelphia is just 43-47 against the spread and with the Heat shooting 81% for the postseason at the line, a late lead for the home team is likely to balloon beyond a mere 3.

Why the Heat (-3) won’t cover

Philadelphia’s James Harden came out of his slumber with 31 points in the Sixers’ Game 4 win, and historically The Beard has performed well in Miami, averaging 24.8 points per game there in his 13-year career including a 58-point performance in February of 2019 when a member of the Houston Rockets.

Paired with Joel Embiid, who had 24 points and 11 boards Sunday, and who’s shown no ill-effects coming back early from a broken orbital bone suffered in the previous series with Atlanta, the Sixers have shown they’ve grown tougher through adversity and are ready to take the next step.

OOP THERE IT IS!!

👟@Xfinity pic.twitter.com/s3Q7f0Z03r

— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) May 9, 2022

Why the Over (209.5)

The Heat have been one of the most consistent teams in the league when it comes to betting the over, posting a mark of 51-40 and at home are averaging 110.8 points per game, easily setting the pace to break 209.5.

Why the Under (209.5)

In Philadelphia’s last six games, the over and under has alternated with Sunday’s 224 points topping the 218 line. The alternating theory would have their next game fall into the under. As for the Heat, all five of their games in their first-round series with Atlanta failed to clear the Over.

The X-Factor: Victor Oladipo, Miami G

In 7 of the last 10 games the Heat have covered the spread but in two of the three that they didn’t, guard Victor Oladipo, who averages 12.4 points per game went over 20, including a season-high 40 in 14-point loss to the lowly Orlando Magic.

A big scoring night for Oladipo may mean trouble for Miami vs. the spread.

🏀 Projected Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 box score
✍️ Betting Preview: Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5

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