PGA TOUR Golf Bets: FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks and Parlay

We're back with another PGA parlay. but we're switching gear's this week for a unique way to use our model's Head-to-Head tool.

We've already broken down our best bets of the weekend, featuring four winners with an edge. Now it's time to cook up our weekly tournament parlay featuring four golfers backed by our Head-to-Head tool, but his time, it comes with a twist.

While we traditionally do a matchups or 3-ball parlay, we're looking at one of the more overlooked markets in golf - Region or Nationality props. Here, you're selecting the golfer who will finish highest amongst those in their region, Top USA or Top Irish, for example. With our model favoring a couple longer odds plays, we may be able to steal some value here.

We have an in-house tool designed for pitting golfers against one another and simulating the results. We can see who will finish higher in their head-to-head matchup, either after Round 1 or over the course of the entire tournament.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship Golf Betting Preview

Read our deep dive into this weekend's FedEx St. Jude Championship for a larger look at this tournament across the pond.

These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that has returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark at Pebble Beach in 2024, cashed our +627 parlay at The Masters, +1075 3-ball parlay at the Memorial and called three winners in four weeks with Davis Thompson at the John Deere Classic, then Xander Schauffele at The Open and finally Scottie Scheffler to win the Gold medal the Olympics.

Xander Schauffele has captured victory at #TheOpen!

If you read our Best Bets article earlier this week, you’ve got a +1200 winning ticket ✅ pic.twitter.com/RtznF8zjt8

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) July 21, 2024

FedEx St. Jude Championship Regional Round Robin Parlay

To make this parlay, we'll be using the Nationality props available on DraftKings, as some other books won't allow you to parlay these together. We'll enter the relevant golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend. 

Additionally, we highly recommend playing this as a round robin, so you can cash in if just two guys win their region.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Leg 1: Scottie Scheffler Top USA (+230)

We'll kick things off with our model's favorite to win the tournament, Scottie Scheffler. Scottie just beat the best in the world at the Olympics as he's done all year. While we like the value on Xander Schauffele to win the tournament, we're looking for probability here and strong chance and we see the advantage with Scottie.

There are dozens of Americans competing but for our sake, here's how Scheffler fairs to beat the Top 3 American contenders behind him straight up:

• 53.5% over Schaueffle (41.9%)
• 66.2% over Morikawa (28.9%)
• 73.8% over Henley (22.1%)

As you can see, Schefler is a strong favorite for the USA region and while Schauffele is close and his +500 odds are appealing, Scheffler gets the nod.

Leg 2: Aaron Rai Top English (+220)

Next is our shortest odds play, though Aaron Rai is not the favorite here. Tommy Fleetwood just took silver at the Olympics, but fresh off a composed victory at the Wyndham Championship, Aaron Rai is absolutely dialed in lately.

Save for a rough T75 at The Open, a nootriously difficult event, he's not finished outside the Top 7 in his past five events and nor outside the top 20 in his past seven. With four Top 5 finishes this year, he's got all the upside he needs.

And we're not even asking him to win! Just beat a couple of his fellow countrymen. He's a hair behind Tommy Fleetwood in their head-to-head matchup, but he's got much better odds and we have just a 0.8% probability separating them from a Top 20 finish. Plus, he's got just three guys to beat:

• 46.2% over Fleetwood (48.8%)
• 56.2% over Fitzpatrick (38.4%)
• 63.8% over Rose (31.0%)

The PGA Power is Yours:  Build Your Head-to-Head Parlays

Leg 3: Sungjae Im Top Asian (+300)

For this one, we're taking our favored guy in another close matchup, with SunJae Im who's also in great form getting the nod over the book's favorite, Hideki Matsuyama.

Im has six of his seven top 10 finishes this year in his past 10 events, including three Top 5s. Matusyama has also had himself quite a year with a win and five Top 10s, but has struggled a bit lately and has only golfed in six PGA events since The Masters.

Behind him, we have Tom Kim, who's managed just two Top 10 finishes this year, though he was bested in a playoff by the nearly unbeatable Scottie Scheffler this year.

Here's how Im stacks up against our next three golfers from Asia:

• 48.0% over Matsuyama (45.6%)
• 56.0% over Kim (38.5%)
• 56.7% over An (37.8%)

Leg 4: Corey Conners Top Rest of World (+700)

Finally, we'll close out with a Canadian who we could take to win his region, but we like the longshot odds for Conners here.

So who exactly does Conners have to beat? Rest of World effectively excludes all of Europe and the USA, so we're competing against Australia, Asia, Canada, South America and elsewhere.

Conners' best finishes have come in the past couple of months, with all three of his T10 or better, and his worst finishes being a T25, T26 and T27, dating all the way back to late April.

These matchups could get tight, but Conners is our highest projected golfer in this collective region. Plus, even though Asian golfers are in this category, both Im and Conners can win their respective categories here.

• 47.9% over Im (46.9%)
• 49.0% over Matsuyama (45.6%)
• 51.5% over Scott (42.7%)

How to Round Robin these Picks

To make the most out of these picks, we suggest playing a round robin so you can still cash in if just three or two of these hit.

Here's how you can bet just $18 across these picks, but feel free to scale your stake as you see fit and are comfortable with:

• x2: $2 per combo to win $241.12
• x3: $1 per combo to win $334.72
• x4: $2 to win $675.84

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictionsfor every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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