PGA TOUR Golf Bets: 3M Open Head-to-Head Matchup Picks and Parlay

We're back with another PGA matchups parlay!

We've already broken down our best bets of the weekend, from winners and placements to more. Now it's time to cook up our famous matchups parlay featuring four golfers our model supports at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota.

Betting on winners and who will finish in the Top 5, 10 and 20 markets gets all the attention around golf tournaments, but betting on head-to-head matchups can be an equally lucrative and entertaining experience for golf bettors. For our model's best picks in those markets, check out our full 3M Open Predictions, now exclusively part of Dimers Pro.

We have an in-house tool designed for pitting golfers against one another and simulating the results. We can see who will finish higher in their head-to-head matchup, either after Round 1 or over the course of the entire tournament.

With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup. We're switching gears slightly this week and going with 3-ball matchups rather than head-to-head, but we can use our tool just the same!

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3M Open Golf Betting Preview

Read our deep dive into this weekend's 3M Open for a larger look at this tournament across the pond.

These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that has returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark at Pebble Beach in 2024, cashed our +627 parlay at The Masters, +1075 3-ball parlay at the Memorial and called two winners in three weeks with Davis Thompson at the John Deere Classicand Xander Schauffele at The Open.

Xander Schauffele has captured victory at #TheOpen!

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+1126 3M Open Matchups Parlay on DraftKings

To make this parlay, we'll be using the tournament-long head-to-head matchups available at DraftKings as they have our preferred options available. We'll enter golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend. 

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Leg 1: Keegan Bradley to beat Cameron Davis (-125)

We'll start with the shortest odds of the bunch, as we look for Keegan Bradley to come out on top against Cam Davis.

Davis has played just one event since his win back at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in June. Well-rested or rusty? While they've had similar years, (Bradley with one more Top 10 and Top 25 than Davis) a look at their analytics reveals a much more consistent golfer in Bradley as Davis ranks well outside the Top 100 in key SG categories.

Bradley gets a 63.3% chance to win or tie against Davis and his standalone fair odds to beat Davis would be closer to -140.

Leg 2: Adam Svensson to beat Thriston Lawrence (-115)

Next, we're looking at one of the stronger matchups identified by the BOT as far as probability and are fading South African Thriston Lawrence after his 4th-place finish at The Open.

Before last weekend, Lawrence played in five events on the PGA TOUR this year, missing the cut in four of them. Svensson hasn't exactly been on fire this year and while he's had his fair share of missed cuts, he's shown far more consistency with making it to Moving Day.

At 64.3% for the Canadian to win or tie, compared to just 41.6% for Lawrence who is juice to -105, this one is easy to see the advantage we get for Svensson.

The PGA Power is Yours:  Build Your Head-to-Head Parlays

Leg 3: Doug Ghim to beat Emiliano Grillo (-110)

This is the closest matchup according to our model, but that's understandable with the two golfers each priced at -110.

Both golfers were in better form in the early part of the season, particularly Ghim, who turned in five-straight Top 20 finishes before hitting a long bumpy stretch.

However, Grillo currently ranks 122nd in total strokes gained while Ghim is 33rd. He's also ranked 9th on Approach, an area Grillo is just 58th.

We work with raw data here, so we're backing our favorite, whose -110 odds are much closer to his true price (-105) compared to Grillo, who should be +130.

Leg 4: Mackenzie Hughes to beat Nick Dunlap (-110)

We'll close it out with our model's strongest matchup here and on our second Canadian in this parlay.

Nick Dunlap is coming off a win a the second golf event that was going on last weekend, the Barracuda Championship, while Hughes finished T16 at The Open. One of those was in contention with the best golfers in the world, and it wasn't Dunlap. Hughes has the edge over Dunlap in the majority of their head-to-head matchups this year and in several kept stats, particularly putting (9th to Dunlap's 85th) and overall (61st to Dunlap's 138th).

Furthemore, the books have this matchup as a toss-up with both golfers priced at -110, while DimersBOT has a significant edge on Hughes, whose fair odds would be -165.

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictionsfor every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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