PGA Tour Expert Picks: Rocket Mortgage Classic Predictions & Best Bets

It was a mixed bag of results for us at the Travelers Championship this past weekend. We nailed both our Top-20 bets with ease, but Scottie Scheffler fell just short of a victory and Wyndham Clark, though he played well, didn't secure us a spot in the Top 10. To rub it in, we missed our +2235 head-to-head parlay by one leg, as Rory Mcilroy fell to Patrick Cantlay by just one stroke. Regardless, the model has been firing lately and the misses have been good reads based on the final results.

We're attacking this weekend's event, the Rocket Mortage Classic, just as we always do with our favorite outright winners and placement bets backed by our model. 

Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson when they get paired together after the PGA-LIV merger: pic.twitter.com/urY9zpHr86

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) June 6, 2023

We have a handful of Best Bets worth taking, let's dive in. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

MORE: Our +2000 Head-to-Head Matchups Parlay

Betting on golf is a great way to take advantage of new promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet on any of these picks and get their first bet back up to $1,000 if it loses.

Who will win the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic?

This Week's PGA Tour Top-Five Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the highest probabilities to win and our best PGA Golf bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, down below:

	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Rickie Fowler	9.3%	28.2%	42.4%
Collin Morikawa	6.9%	23.6%	37.2%
Tony Finau	5.8%	21.3%	33.9%
Hideki Matsuyama	5.5%	19.8%	32.3%
Max Homa	5.4%	19.8%	31.2%

Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Preview

We head to Detroit Golf Club for the fifth edition of the Rocket Mortage Classic, a course that runs 7,370 yards as a par 72. Defending champion Tony Finau shot a -26 at last year's event, and though he's not in great form, our takeaway is that a low score will be required to contend this weekend. With just six regular season events remaining on the PGA TOUR, expect this week's slimmed-down field to do just that.

With nine (!) of our Top-10 golfers per our in-house rankings absent from the field this week, the tournament is wide open.

MORE: Our In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Rickie Fowler (+1400)

Rickie Fowler is sure to be a popular bet in this event. He's in great form and if not for a Round 4 collapse a couple of weeks ago, he might have secured his first major championship at the U.S. Open. In this entire calendar year, he has just three finishes outside of a T20, with a lone missed cut. He rattled off three-straight Top-10s before last week's T13 at the Travelers Championship. 

This week, he gets to keep that strong form rolling without the top of the ranks in his way, giving him a much wider path to victory than in recent weeks. DimersBOT gives Fowler a 9.3% chance to win, which in turn gives us almost a 3% edge in the odds, which is significant in golf outrights. This implies closer to odds of +1000 so you can see the value we're getting. Plus, if you bet this at DraftKings where you can add +300 to any outright winner, you take this all the way out to 4.5% +EV at +1700.

Collin Morikawa (+1800)

It's safe to say Morikawa would like to return to the form he displayed earlier in the year. After opening the year with a pair of missed cuts sandwiched between five Top-10 finishes, Morikawa has three missed cuts and a withdrawal in his last seven events, with a lone finish inside the Top-20 with a T14 at the U.S. Open.

Oddly, his best three finishes since April have come in the three majors with the largest field and the highest level of competition. He clearly can play well under pressure so his MCs at these other events are a bit puzzling for a golfer of his talent. 

DimersBOT gives Morikawa a 6.9% chance of a victory, which will give us just under a 2% edge in the odds. If Morikawa can combine his best form with the depleted field this week, his outright odds of +1800 will be a bargain.

Best Placement Bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Looking beyond our outright winners, we've got two placement bets to consider. There's not a ton of value in the Top 5 market, but if you feel like hedging one of your winners with a Top 5 pick, keep an eye out for DraftKings' usual 18% profit boosts throughout the weekend.

RELATED: Head-to-Head Matchups Tool

Rickie Fowler to Finish Top 10 (+180)

Well, unless you skipped past the whole column to get to this point, we've already covered why we like Rickie Fowler this week. The same reasons apply to his Top 10 finish (seven such finishes this year), but we're still getting value at about a 7% edge in the odds. Our model gives Fowler a 42.4% chance to finish Top 10 this week, and getting almost 2/1 odds is a great deal.

Keegan Bradley to Finish Top 10 (+320)

Bradley picked up his second win of the season at the Travelers Championship. Our model is actually finding slight value in his outright odds at +2800, but we're only getting a little over a 1% edge against the books and it's incredibly rare and difficult to win back-to-back tournaments on the PGA TOUR, even against a smaller field. We will back him to roll his success into contention, however, and will happily take him at +320 to finish Top-10 with a 31% chance from our model.

Sam Ryder to Finish Top 20 (+550)

Okay, Sam Ryder has as many missed cuts (8) this year as he does finishes. But in those eight finishes, he has five at T20 or better, as well as just shy at T26 once. When he plays well, he can compete. As previously mentioned, this field is lacking in almost the entire Top 10 in the rankings, keeping the competition from being top-heavy. His odds of +550 imply just a 15.4% chance to win, so we're getting a nice 3% edge in the odds as our model suggests he should be closer to +450.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full Predictions for the Rocket Mortgage Classic to find your favorite plays!

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.