PGA Tour Expert Picks: Open Championship Golf Predictions and Best Bets

It's time for the final golf major of 2023, with the best players from both the PGA TOUR and LIV Golf coming together for the Open Championship at Royal Liverpool Golf Course, in Hoylake, UK. With this being the fourth and final major of the year, golf fans are looking to make some money, our best bets here to help with outright winner plays, as well as Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made thanks to our powerful predictive analytics model and our data has already pulled off some big wins in 2023.

Betting on golf is a great way to take advantage of new promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet on any of these picks and get their first bet back up to $1,000 if it loses.

Who will win the 2023 Open Championship?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Open Championship, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times: 

	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Scottie Scheffler	13.7%	41.0%	58.0%
Rory McIlory	8.7%	29.9%	46.2%
Jon Rahm	7.5%	27.1%	43.1%
Patrick Cantlay	5.1%	21.6%	37.1%
Cameron Smith	4.7%	19.2%	33.2%

Open Championship Betting Preview

A par 71 that plays to 7,094 yards, Royal Liverpool (Hoylake) will play host to the Open Championship for the first time since 2014, when this year's betting favorite in Rory McIlory last won a British Open.

Of course this week sees the best players from both the PGA TOUR and LIV Golf competing against each other, with the number one player in the world (on both the OWGR and our in-house rankings), Scottie Scheffler, our model's most likely winner.

MORE: Dimers Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the Open Championship

Scottie Scheffler (+850)

The best bet to make on the Open Championship this week is on the best player in the world, Scottie Scheffler.

Scheffler has now put together a season that has only been matched in strokes gained: tee-to-green by a certain Tiger Woods in 2006, who coincidentally went on to win the Open Championship at this very venue that year.

With a win probability of 13.7% according to DimersBOT, bettors are gaining an edge of 3.2% on his current FanDuel Sportsbook odds. The most likely winner of the tournament and an edge on against the books? Yes please.

Scheffler finished T3 at the Scottish Open last week, meaning he has now finished T12 or better in 18 straight events (and T5 or better in his last seven!). If you're betting on the golf this week, you simply must make sure that this man features on your card.

Scottie Scheffler's last finish worse than T-12 happened during Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) July 17, 2023

Scheffler also features as a key leg in this week's The Open three-ball parlay, where we have used our predictive analytics model to pick four golfers to get us a +5192 payout.

Patrick Cantlay (+2700)

Our next value play for this week's British Open golf is on a man still looking to break his major duck, with Patrick Cantlay projected as the fourth most likely to lift the claret jug come Sunday.

Cantlay has now finished T14 or better in his last five majors, including a T8 at last year's Open Championship at St. Andrew's. He has also finished in the Top 10 on seven occasions this season, with just two missed cuts.

Despite not winning yet this season, Cantlay is ranked as the number one driver of the ball on TOUR, as well as being fifth for strokes gained. 

Our model has Cantlay's fair odds at +1860 this week, meaning we have an edge of 1.5% on the +2700 available with FanDuel.

Patrick Cantlay also features in our 3-ball parlay for the Open Championship this week, where we have picked four guys to build a +5192 parlay that you don't want to miss!

Denny McCarthy (+12500)

After simulating this week's Open 10,000 times, the best sleeper pick of the tournament is undoubtedly Denny McCarthy.

30-year-old McCarthy has yet to win on the PGA TOUR, but is enjoying his best season yet in 2022-23, with six top-10 finishes and two impressive showings at the majors that he has competed in.

Ranked 16th in shots gained on the season, highlighted by being the third-best putter on TOUR, McCarthy has the all-around consistent game that should bode well this week.

With his win probability at 2.6% (still a 1.8% edge on his odds!), we are taking a Denny McCarthy 'ladder play' this week, meaning we suggest betting on him to win, top-5, top-10 and top-20. 

Our model has detected an edge on each of the placement markets for McCarthy this week, with a top-20 finish ensuring profit if you bet $5 on each of them. Then, if he performs well enough for a top-10, top-5 or outright win, the profits will just continue to grow! 

Best Placement Bets for the Open Championship

As well as the Denny McCarthy 'ladder play' that we have suggested above, we've got a few more placement bets to consider for this week's Open Championship.

Plus, we have put together an Open Championship Top 20 round-robin parlay, featuring some of the guys below, as well as some further value found by DimersBOT! 

Wyndham Clark to Finish Top 10 (+480)

One of our favorites here at Dimers, Wyndham Clark is again presenting value as we look ahead to the Open Championship.

The 2023 U.S. Open champion, Clark is another who is enjoying a career best season, with a further win at the Wells Fargo and a total of eight top-10 finishes thus far.

We're looking at him to continue that run and finish in the top-10 again, with his odds of +480 meaning we have an edge of 8.7% to jump on here.

Collin Morikawa to Finish Top 20 (+150)

A former winner of the Open Championship (a result DimersBOT famously picked), Collin Morikawa is yet to produce a win this season but does come into this week with his last result being a playoff loss at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

With odds of +150, Morikawa to finish in the top-20 looks like the ultimate anchor for your parlays this week, with our model highlighting an edge of 6.9%.

Despite not having won yet, Morikawa still ranks as the number two player when it comes to shots gained: approach this season and has finished in the top-20 on nine times.  

Adam Schenk to Finish Top 20 (+700)

With eight top-20 finishes to his name already this season, Adam Schenk is enjoying some of the best golf he has ever played and likely enters this week with confidence after finishing 7th and T14 in his last two starts.

With a probability of 24.2% to finish top-20 again this week, most of the guys around Schenk on our Open Championship predictions page have odds of around +300, a stark difference to what we are getting here.

At +700, the implied probability of a Schenk top-20 according to the books is 12.5%, meaning our model rates him around twice as likely!

This is simply value that can not be ignored, with the 31-year-old also playing a major role in our round-robin parlay for this week.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for the Open Championship to find your favorite plays, with more edges to be found on guys like Russell Henley, Joaquin Niemann and Keegan Bradley!

Plus, don't forget to jump into our +5192 3-ball parlay for the Open Championship, which features Scheffler and Clark, as well as three more in-form golfers presenting big value this week.

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.