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PGA Tour Expert Picks: BMW Championship Predictions and Best Bets
We're jumping into Round 2 of the 2022-23 PGA TOUR FedEx Cup playoffs, the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields in Chicago, IL. After an exciting first round, 70 golfers have been cut down to 50, in another no-cut event, with eyes on the top 30 spots that will compete in the final showdown next week.
The biggest names in the world like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm return to the field after a few weeks off, as well as fan-favorites of the year like Wyndham Clark and Viktor Hovland joining the ranks. We're attacking this weekend's event in Chicago just as we always do with our favorite outright winners and placement bets backed by our model.
Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson when they get paired together after the PGA-LIV merger: pic.twitter.com/urY9zpHr86
— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) June 6, 2023
We have a handful of Best Bets worth taking, let's dive in. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has found some notable edges this season.
MORE: Our +4294 BMW Championship 3-Ball Parlay
Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.
Now, we know you probably already have an account with one of the leading sportsbooks here in the US, but it definitely pays to have more than one funded account when betting on sports.
Find out which books are best, who has the best new customer offer, and how you can secure better odds and lines for all of your bets, below.
Who will win the 2023 BMW Championship?
This Week's PGA Tour Top-Five Win Probabilities
To make things easy for you, we listed the highest probabilities to win and our best PGA Golf bets for the BMW Championship, down below:
| WIN | TOP 5 | TOP 10 | |
| Rory McIlroy | 11.6% | 36.8% | 55.8% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 11.4% | 36.4% | 54.6% |
| Jon Rahm | 8.0% | 29.4% | 47.% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 7.6% | 29.1% | 46.4% |
| Viktor Hovland | 4.8% | 20.6% | 37.7% |
BMW Championship Betting Preview
Olympia Fields is a par 70 that totals 7,366 yards. Last week's winner, Lucas Glover, is looking for three-straight wins on TOUR, while runner-up Patrick Cantlay is looking for his third-straight victory at the BMW Championship, although each instance has been on a different course. Third-place finished Rory McIlroy is just one of two golfers with a win probability greater than 10%.
Scottie Scheffler is actually our model's second favorite to win this week, albeit by a very slim margin of just 0.2% behind McIlroy. Let's dive into our top picks based on DimersBOT's win probabilities to find out who's worth betting on this weekend.
MORE: Our In-House Golf Rankings
Best Bets For the BMW Championship
Rory McIlroy To Win (+700, boost to +1000 on DraftKings)
In a field of just 50 golfers, it's incredibly difficult to find value. Furthermore, most books are pretty aligned on their odds so shopping around yields fewer opportunities as well. However, we can use one of the best golf promos out there to our advantage.
Rory McIlroy is our model's favorite to win the BMW Championship with an 11.6% chance, just edging out Scottie Scheffler at 11.4%. His regular odds of +700 imply a 12.5% probability, meaning where losing about a unit of value on odds that should be +800. But if we bet this at DraftKings where you can add +300 to any outright winner, you take this all the way out to +1000.
Those boosted odds bump our value up to a 2.5% edge, turning our overpriced favorite into one of the best value plays of the tournament. McIlroy has finished Top-3 with a win in three of his last five events and a win this week would catapult him to the top of the FedEx Cup standings.
Collin Morikawa To Win (+2500)
Our second outright winner bet this week is Collin Morikawa, whose biggest enemy is the cut line, something he won't need to contend with this week. He's sitting at 22nd in the FedEx Cup standings, so he'll want to play competitively to make sure he doesn't slip out of that 30-man cutoff for the FedEx Cup finale at East Lake.
He's taken several events off since July but finished as high as T2 when he lost in a playoff at the Rocker Mortage Classic just three events ago (for him). He's ranked 10th in Stroked Gained: Total this season.
Morikawa gets a 4% chance from our model which just about falls in line with his odds of +2500. Though we're not getting much of an edge, the price is at least fair and if you look at the players with similar probabilities to Morikawa, their odds aren't as good.
Looking beyond our outright winners, we've got some placement bets to consider. In addition to these pre-tournament bets, they make good live options if you keep an eye out for DraftKings' usual daily 18% profit boosts throughout the weekend.
RELATED: Head-to-Head Matchups Tool
Tommy Fleetwood to Finish Top 10 (+210)
Our man Tommy was one of our picks to win last week at +3000, and although he came up short, it was a great read as he missed the playoff by just one stroke, finishing T3 with Rory McIlroy. It's no big surprise that he's another favorite of our model this week, although we're looking at a different market than backing him outright.
He's managed eight Top-10 finishes this year, including five of his last seven. He missed the cut in the other events, something he won't need to worry about this week. He could be a good ladder play for a Top 5 and outright win as well.
DimersBOT gives Fleetwood a 37.7% chance of a Top 10 finish, which gives us a 5.5% edge in his odds of +210. He's in a good place to ride his momentum from last week, so we like his chances and are backing the BOT here.
Eric Cole to Finish Top 20 (+310)
Looking at a wider market but even longer odds, we're backing Eric Cole to nab a Top-20 finish at Olympia Fields. Cole is having a strong rookie season on TOUR, grabbing six Top-20 finishes with half of them being Top-10s. He finished T14 just two weeks ago, and now that he's at 42nd in the FedEx Cup standings, he's going to want to make a strong push for the Top 30 to stay alive.
DimersBOT gives Cole a 32% chance to finish Top-20, giving us a pretty solid 8% edge. For comparison, the next player with odds longer than +300 has a 28.5% probability It's a good advantage and this will be a fun bet.
These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full Predictions for the BMW Championship to find your favorite plays!
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for the NFL and MLB, crafts insightful game previews and betting props for the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM and PGA TOUR tournaments.
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