PGA TOUR: BMW Championship Three-Ball Parlay 2023

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BMW Championship Matchups Parlay for 2023

Our parlay for the 2023 BMW Championship has landed, with four legs totaling odds of +4294 with DraftKings. We also recommend placing a round-robin bet on this, giving you a nice payout if only two or three of the legs end up winning.

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Leg 1: Tommy Fleetwood (+160)

Our first leg for this week is one who came through for us in the parlay last week and nearly cashed our +3000 outright winner, Tommy Fleetwood, paired up against Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark.

Save for one missed cut, Fleetwood hasn't finished lower than T10 in his last six events, including four in the top five. He's riding serious momentum and has an outside shot of winning the FedEx Cup.

DimersBOT rates Fleetwood with a 49.7% chance of winning his matchup with Morikawa, and a 59.6% chance to beat Clark.

Leg 2: Patrick Cantlay (+150)

The second leg of our BMW Championship parlay is for Patrick Cantlay to outperform Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele across the course this weekend.

Cantlay also came through for us last week, losing in a playoff to Lucas Glover but securing our H2H matchup. These three golfers are in similar form with at least seven Top-10 finishes this year, but Cantlay has shown the most upside in the past couple of months. Schauffele hasn't finished inside the Top-10 since Wells Fargo in early May and Hovland not since his win at The Memorial in early June. Cantlay, on the other hand, has two Top-5s and three Top-10s in that same span.

Cantlay gets a 53.9% chance to win his matchup with Hovland and 53.4% to beat Schauffele. He's alos our fourth-most likely winner.

MORE: Build your own BMW Championship parlay with our PGA head-to-head predictor tool now

Leg 3: Rory McIlroy (+160)

Next up we have a matchup between the three top golfers in this tournament, with Rory McIlroy our pick to beat out his top competition in Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

These are our model's three most-likely winners this week, which shouldn't come as a shock to anyone, although it's the first time in a while that Rory McIlroy has had the highest probability of them all, however slim it may be. 

Our model has McIlroy with a 52.9% chance to beat Rahm, but his matchup with Scheffler is pretty much a toss-up which makes sense given their nearly identical win probabilities. McIlroy is technically in a better groove, with no worse than T9 in his last eight events, while Scheffler has finished T31 and T23 in his last two events. However, Scottie had seven straight Top-5s or better prior to that and it's splitting hairs to argue about who is in better form.

We're simply backing the value and riding the high with Rory.

Leg 4: Russell Henley (+160)

Our fourth and final leg this week is for Russell Henley to edge out Justin Rose and Sam Burns at Olympia Fields.

After missing the cut at a difficult and loaded The Open, Henley has finished T2 and T6 in back-to-back events. Rose's last four events have been a trio of missed cuts and a T20 last week, while Burns is coming a T52 at the FedEx St. Jude.

According to our model, Henley has a 55.6% chance to beat out Rose (who gets a 38.8% chance) and a 60% chance to beat Burns (34.5%). 

2023 BMW Championship Matchups Parlay

Picks	Odds (+4294)
Tommy Fleetwood to beat C. Morikawa + W. Clark	+160
Patrick Cantlay to beat V. Hovland + X. Schauffele	+150
R. McIlroy to beat S. Scheffler + J. Rahm	+160
Russell Henley to beat J. Rose + S. Burns	+160

Want more PGA golf predictions like this?

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