PGA Golf: Our American Express Picks and Predictions

The 2024 PGA Tour season is in full swing! This weekend's American Express has a loaded field with some of the top names in the sport and we're here with our best picks and predictions sourced from our A.I. model. This tournament takes place at La Quinta Country Club in La Quinta, California. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023!

Betting on these tournaments is a great way to take advantage of weekly promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet $5 and get $158 in bonus bets instantly.

Who Will Win the 2024 American Express Golf?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's American Express, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times: 

golf ER	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Scottie Scheffler	15.2%	41.1%	56.3%
Xander Schauffele	10.3%	34.2%	49.5%
Patrick Cantlay	10.3%	31.7%	47.2%
Wyndham Clark	4.8%	19.7%	32.9%
Sungjae Im	4.2%	17.5%	30.1%

American Express Golf Betting Preview

The American Express Tournament uses three courses over the weekend -The Pete Dye Stadium Course, a par 72 that plays to 7,187 yards, La Quinta Country Club, a 7,060-yard par 72, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course which clocks in at 7,159 yards and you guessed it, a par 72.

An $8,400,000 purse is on the line, as well as 500 FedExCup points. Last year's champ Jon Rahm has migrated to LIV golf , but there's no shortage of power players in this field after last week's lighter field at the Sony Open.

MORE: Dimers golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the American Express Golf

Xander Schauffele (+1100 on DraftKings)

The best bet to make on the American Express this week is on Xander Schauffele, the fifth-ranked golf er in the world.

Schauffele already has a Top 10 finish at The Sentry under his belt, his only event thus far into the young season.

With a win probability of 10.3% according to DimersBOT, bettors are gaining an edge of 3.0% against his current best odds on DraftKings. For reference, that means our fair odds would be close to +900, so you can see the difference in value.

Schauffele managed a third-place finish at the previous edition of this tournament and our model is backing him to make another deep run.

Patrick Cantlay (+1000 on BetMGM)

Our next value play for this week's tourney is on Patrick Cantlay, who you'll find gets an identical win probability to our tip pick, Schauffele.

Cantlay owns three top-10 finishes at the American Express, including a second-place finish in the 2021 event, so it's safe to say he thrives in this environment. Like Schauffele, his only event this season is The Sentry in which he finished 12th.

Also like Schauffele, our model has Cantlay's fair odds at +900 this week, meaning we have a slim edge of 1.3% against his best price at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Wyndham Clark (+4000 on DraftKings)

Our final recommended winner pick comes at a smaller probability, but much longer odds.

30-year-old Wyndham Clark displayed some serious upside in his mid-season form last year, posting five top-six finishes in the span of nine events, including two outright wins for his first PGA victories. Can he add a third to his resume this weekend?

He ranked 13th in shots gained on the season last year, showing his upside among the best.

With his win probability at 4.8%, he owns the fourth-highest win probability of the week and still comes with value. While a 2.4% edge may not sound incredibly large, that's the difference between his +4000 best price and our fair odds of +2000, a massive misprice! It shouldn't surprise you that there's value in his Top 5 (+750), Top 10 (+360) and Top 20 (+170) odds as well.

Best Value Bets for the American Express Golf

In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's American Express Tournament as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a Round Robin to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Daniel Berger to Finish Top 5 (+1400 on DraftKings)

Our model has identified two value plays in the Top 5 market: the aforementioned Wyndham Clark, and this man, Daniel Berger.

This is Berger's first event on the PGA TOUR since the 2021-22 season. A back injury forced him out of play and he missed the entire 2023 campaign. Before the injury, Berger showed serious potential, with four TOUR wins and consistent Top-25 finishes.

This week, he gets a 13.0% probability to capture a Top 5 finish. It's a bit of a longshot for a golf er who hasn't competed in over a year, but for the 6.3% edge in the odds, it's certainly worth a sprinkle.

Eric Cole to Finish Top 10 (+330 on DraftKings)

Our best top-10 pick, Eric Cole, is off to a solid start in 2024. He's carded 14th and 15th place finishes in his first two events of the season. Now, we're looking for him to take that next step and crack the Top 10.

He gets a 30.1% probability from DimersBOT to do so, and that'll give us a 6.4% edge in the odds, as our fair price would be +230.

He ranked 16th overall in strokes gained last season, and that propelled him to seven Top-10 performances.

Shane Lowry to Finish Top 20 (+280 on DraftKings)

Another golf er making their season debut, Shane Lowry is one of the strongest Top 20 picks this week based on value.

With nine top-20 finishes to his name last season, we're hoping Lowry picks up where left off, as he secured five of those in his final eight events.

When you consider his probability of 32.4% to finish top-20 again this week, you'll see most of the guys around Lowry on our American Express predictions page have odds of around +200 or shorter, a stark difference to what we are getting here.

At +280, the implied probability of a Lowry top-20 according to the books is just 26.3%, identifying a 6.1% edge.

Will Zalatoris to Finish Top 20 (+360 on DraftKings)

Will Zalatoris made his anticipated return to the TOUR last week and it looked like he should have stayed home. Not to be mean to a guy returning from injury, but Zalatoris fired an opening round +6 before missing the cut. But, for a guy who posted nine Top 10s in his last full season, it's just a matter of when, not if, Zalatoris returns to form.

Ideally, he'll do this week, when our model projects him with a 33.6% probability of a Top 20 finish, giving us a significant edge of 11.9%. You can find Zalatoris with value in the Top 10 market as well, but we'll gladly take his easier bet with him still easing back into the swing of things.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for the American Express to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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