PGA Golf: Our Farmers Insurance Open Picks and Predictions

The 2024 PGA TOUR season is in full swing! The Farmer's Insurance Open sees a few big names absent from the field, opening up value down the board. Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations with the field in this tournament, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. We're back in California with a Wednesday start, as this event heads to Torrey Pines in La Jolla. Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023!

Betting on these tournaments is a great way to take advantage of weekly promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet $5 and get $158 in bonus bets instantly.

Who Will Win the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Farmers Insurance Open, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models: 

GOLFER	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Xander Schauffele	11.7%	34.1%	49.7%
Collin Morikawa	9.5%	30.8%	45.3%
Patrick Cantlay	7.9%	28.9%	42.4%
Max Homa	6.6%	23.1%	37.0%
Ludvig Aberg	4.4%	18.2%	30.9%

Farmers Insurance Open Golf Betting Preview

We're golfing on a Wednesday! This tournament takes place at the 36-hole Torrey Pines, featuring two courses, appropriately named North and South. The full field will compete over both courses in Rounds 1 and 2 before those who make the cut finish off the weekend with two rounds on the South course.

The North course is a Par 72 that runs 7,258 yards while the South is notably longer at 7,765 yards, though also a Par 72. Rain looks to be a factor in the early week so bettors should consider that in their wagers with the earlier start.

A $9,000,000 purse is on the line, as well as 500 FedExCup points. The reigning champ here is Max Homa, who hasn't participated since his T14 finish at The Sentry. Let's get into it.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open

Xander Schauffele (+900 on BetMGM)

DimersBOT is going back to one of its best bets from last week's American Express with Xander Schauffele to win. He validated that pick with a T3 finish, competing throughout the weekend and coming up short by 2 strokes. 

Schauffele now has pocketed two top-10 finishes in both of his events to start the year. He's killing it off the tee so far, ranking 8th in SG and sitting 21st overall.

With a win probability of 11.7% according to DimersBOT, you'll find an edge of 1.7%. It may not sound like much, but that's the difference between +900 and +750, identifying clear value.

The solid form he's displayed so far gives him a great chance against a field missing some of the upper-level talent.

Collin Morikawa (+1100 on DraftKings)

Our next value play for this week's tourney is on Collin Morikawa, our model's second-highest probability winner.

The 26-year-old is special. He's got six wins under his belt and seven runner-up finishes in just the six years since he's turned pro. He can be a volatile golfer, with as many missed cuts as he had Top-10 finishes last season, but the fact remains that his upside is there with the best of them.

He's projected with a 9.5% probability to win this week, which gives us another edge play, since our model suggests his odds should truly be priced at +950.

Eric Cole (+4000 on DraftKings)

Our final recommended winner pick is a guy our model has liked so far this season in the placement markets.

Cole has contended in each of the three tournaments he's played this season, finishined T13, T14 and T21 so far. That T21 hurts particularly, as he was a slim value play for the Top 20 last week. He had a legitimate shot at a win too, shooting 66, 64 and 66 before coming apart on Day 4.

With his win probability at 4.1%, he's outside our Top 5 by a slim margin, but it's a big misprice! +4000 implies just a 2.4% probability, with our model saying these odds should be +2400 at the absolute best. It shouldn't surprise you that there's value in his Top 5 (+750), Top 10 (+360) and Top 20 (+165) odds as well.

Best Top 20 Bets for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open

In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's Farmers Insurance Open as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Eric Cole to Finish Top 20 (+165 on DraftKings)

For all of the reasons described above, Eric Cole is well-poised for a Top-20 finish this week. He's got as good of an opportunity yet between the field and his recent play. His 23rd overall rank in Strokes Gained gives him the edge he needs and provides us with a little edge as well.

We project Cole with a 47.1% probability to finish Top 20, which means his odds should realistically be closer to +115. For an edge of almost 10%, this is our best bet in the Top 20 market.

Daniel Berger to Finish Top 20 (+250 on BetMGM)

Last weekend was Berger's first event since 2022 after a back injury forced him out of play. He was a strong value pick by our model and he made a little run, finishing T39. The biggest takeaway was his consistency, as he shot 68. 68. 67 and 68 which is pretty damn good for a guy two years removed from his last TOUR event.

This week, he gets a 38.7% probability of capturing a Top 20 finish. At +250, the books say he's got just a 28.6% chance, identifying a 10% edge.

Justin Rose to Finish Top 20 (+240 on DraftKings)

The Englishman is our final value play in this market.

Rose has an underwhelming pair of finishes to start the year, with a T40 and T57 before taking last week off. But, he won twice last year and recorded a dozen Top-20 finishes so it's just a matter of time until he finds his form.

When you consider his probability of 34.3% to finish top-20 this week, you'll see most of the guys around him hover in the +160 to +200 range at best.

At +240, the implied probability of him to finish top 20 is just 29.4% so while not the double-digit value we see on Cole and Berger, it's a misprice by the books either way.

 

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for the Farmers Insurance Open to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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