PGA Golf Bets - Valero Texas Open: Our Best Head to Head Picks and Parlay

The Valero Texas Open tees off this Thursday, April 4 at TPC San Antonio. Many golfers are using this tournament as a tune-up for The Masters which will commence on April 11, while others are taking this one off to practice on their own.

Betting on winners and who will finish in the Top 5, 10 and 20 markets gets all the attention around golf tournaments, but betting on head-to-head matchups can be an equally lucrative and entertaining experience for golf bettors. For our model's best picks in those markets, check out our full Valero Texas Open Predictions, now exclusively part of Dimers Pro.

We have an in-house tool designed for pitting golfers against one another and simulating the results. We can see who will finish higher in their head-to-head matchup, either after Round 1 or over the course of the entire tournament.

With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup.

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Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark at Pebble Beach in 2024.

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Our Head-to-Head Matchup Winners at the Valero Texas Open

To make this parlay, we'll be using the Head-to-Head matchups available at DraftKings as they have the most options available. We'll enter both golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

+643 Valero Texas Open Parlay Picks and Analysis

Leg 1: Rory McIlroy to Beat Ludvig Aberg

We'll start with our highest projected golfer to win this tournament, Rory McIlroy. As our projected winner at 10.8%, more than double his opponent here, McIlroy is a no-brainer.

It could get close, as Aberg is currently our projected second-place finisher with a 5.3% probability to win the tournament, but McIlroy gets a 57.2% likelihood of besting Aberg come Sunday's finish in San Antonio. Aberg has been in sharper form this season with three Top-10 finishes, but Rory can't afford a poor showing ahead of Augusta.

Leg 2: Collin Morikawa to Beat Alexander Noren

We swear it's not personal with the Swedes! For our next matchup, we'll take Collin Morikawa to best Swedish golfer Alexander Noren over the course of the weekend. Morikawa is our model's third-most likely winner, so it only makes sense to seize the plus money available for him to beat surpasses Noren who gets just a 2.5% probability to win.

Our H2H predictor confirms this as a great play, giving Morikawa a 56.3% probability to win this matchup, making his fair odds -129.

The Power is Yours:  Build Your Head-to-Head Parlays

Leg 3: Russell Henley to beat Byeong-Hun An

Our third and final leg sees Russell Henley pitted up against Byeong-Hun An. These golfers are both coming off a Missed Cut at THE PLAYERS and a Top 10 finish in the Arnold Palmer Invitational the week before that.

Henley has two top-10 finishes to An's three this season, including a head-to-head victory at the API. DimersBOT projects Henley with a 52.5% probability to best his opponent this weekend, making anything at plus-money a value play.

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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