PGA Golf Bets: Our WM Phoenix Open Picks and Predictions

What a thrilling tournament at Pebble Beach! We saw one of our three best bets, Wyndham Clark at +8000, shoot a course record 60 in Round 3 before the weather caused the the last round to get axed and he was named champion, cashing an 80-1 outright winner.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the WM Phoenix Open, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. We're heading to TPC Scottsdale in Arizona for a tournament that famously gets rowdy.

Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has already returned an 80-1 winner in 2024.

Betting on these tournaments is a great way to take advantage of weekly promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet $5 and get $158 in bonus bets instantly.

Who Will Win the 2024 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's WM Phoenix Open, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models: 

WM Phoenix Open Golf Betting Preview

A few big names are absent from this field, including four of the top 10 FedExCup standings, as well as guys like Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. That's made returning two-time champ Scottie Scheffler a heavy and short favorite.

TPC Scottsdale is a Par 71 that runs 7,261 yards and sports its infamous Par-3 Hole 16 where the crowds gather in hopes of seeing an ace.

An $8,800,000 purse is on the line, as well as 500 FedExCup points. Back-to-back champ Scottie Scheffler is still looking for his first win of 2024. Let's get into it.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the 2024 WM Phoenix Open

Scottie Scheffler (+750 on DraftKings with boost)

Can he secure the rare three-peat in golf? Scottie Scheffler was the best golfer in 2023 but as mentioned, is still looking for his first victory of the young season. Through three events, he's finished T5, T17 and most recently T6 at Pebble Beach, so he's gotten close.

With a win probability of 14.4% according to DimersBOT, the highest by a large margin, you won't find any value with his base price of +450. However, DraftKings has a +300 odds surge to add to any winner bet, meaning you can actually get Scheffler at +750.

That gets you a 3% advantage in the odds, turning the favorite into a +EV play!

Wyndham Clark (+3300 on BetMGM)

Back to the well with Wyndham? You bet. Something tells us Clark is going to find himself featured in this article often if he can iron out a few kinks.

He's finished TT29 and T39 before stealing the win at Pebble Beach with a course record on Moving Day. Slow starts have been his Achilles heel, as he has yet to card under a 70 on Day 1. He has just one round of 70 or higher outside of those three.

He's projected with a 5.3% probability to win this week, the second-highest according to our model, which gives us another edge play. His +3300 odds imply just a 2.9% probability, identifying a 2.4% edge as his odds should realistically be closer to +1800!

Brian Harman (+6600 on BetMGM)

Our final recommended winner pick is big longshot, but that's been the theme of this year's winners so far.

37-year old Brian Harman shocked the golf world when he won The Open last season and he's looking to make a statement early in 2024, with TPC Scottsdale providing just the opportunity to do that.

Harman finished T5 at The Sentry to open the year before turning in finishes of T18 and T54. It's a small sample size but so far, it looks like the weather-affected Pebble Beach event is the outlier for Harman early on.

With DimersBOT giving him a 2.6% win probability, which is slim, there's a big misprice here. While our model suggests he should be +3800, he's actually at +6600 on BetMGM, a massive difference and a must-bet for a small wager.

Best Placement Bets for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open

In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's WM Phoenix Open as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Wyndham Clark to Finish Top 5 (+650 on DraftKings)

For all of the reasons described above, Wyndham Clark is our model's favorite Top 5 bet as well. Despite the second-highest probability at 19.5%, he sits with golfers priced in the +300 to +500 range, showing value even aside from our model's insights.

His odds imply just a 13.3% probability according to the books. Bettors who believe in Clark will find value in all of his placement markets at plus money.

Denny McCarthy to Finish Top 10 (+650 on DraftKings)

For our next placement bet, we're looking at American Denny McCarthy to take the next step in his play this season. He's flirted with Top 20 finishes in his past two events with a T24 and a T26. He had eight Top-10 finishes last year, including three to close out the year. 

His strength lies in his putting so he'll need to significantly improve his work off the tee, but based on our model's probabilities, he's worth a look here. AT +650, his odds imply a 13.3% chance of finishing Top 10, but we project him at 18.1%

Brian Harman to Finish Top 20 (+225 on DraftKings)

A placement bet that's cashed for Harman in 2/3 events so far, he's worth it yet again in Scottsdale. 

This week, he gets a 37.9% probability of capturing a Top 20 finish. However, at +225 the books say he's got just a 30.8% chance, identifying a 7.1% edge, the difference between +225 and around +160.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for the WM Phoenix Open to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictionsfor every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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