PGA Golf Best Bets: The Open Championship Winner Picks and Predictions

Time for our best golf bets of the week!

We've been on a roll lately, and while we didn't secure our outright winner at The Scottish Open, we're fresh off calling a +2500 outright winner with Davis Thompson at the John Deere Classic and ready to get back into it.

After last week's festivities across the pond, we're staying put as we tune up for the final golf major of the year, The 152nd Open Championship.

$1K GOLF BONUS: Use bonus code 'DIMERS' to unlock exclusive bet365 bonus

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the The Open Championship, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. We're heading to famous Royal Troon in Scotland with a $17 million purse up for grabs.

When the DimersBOT tells you to take the early value, that’s exactly what you do.

Davis Thompson +2500 ✅ https://t.co/YJ5uL8kX3r

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) July 7, 2024

Betting Golf with Dimers Pro

For a limited time, you can score three months of Dimers Pro on us after signing up and placing your first wager at BetMGM! 

Dimers Pro gives you access to everything Dimers has to offer right now and in the future, including our full list of today’s best bets and our cutting-edge Parlay Picker.

We've partnered with BetMGM Sportsbook to give all users 3 months of complementary Dimers Pro access when you sign up at the sportsbook.

Learn more about this exclusive, limited time offer here.

The Open Championship 2024 Golf Betting Preview

We're hitting The Old Course at Royal Troon - a par-71 that measures 7,385 yards.  Brian Harman looks to defend his title, while Scottie Scheffler returns to action for the first time in a few weeks.

Tee Times: Group Starts and Latest Odds Revealed

Make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark in 2024, then we correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler's comeback at the RBC Heritage when he was +1000 to win, and predicted Davis Thompson to win outright at the John Deere Classic at +2500.

Who Will Win The Open Championship in 2024?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's The Open Championship, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models. 

For access to every probability and projection beyond the Top 5 in each category, hit the Dimers Pro button below.

Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at The Open Championship

Dimers' World Golf Rankings is our in-house approach to accurately ranking every player currently competing on the PGA Tour and are updated following each tournament.

While Dimers' World Golf Rankings system is separate to the Official World Golf Rankings, we believe our in-house rankings are more accurate due to the data points and multiple variables we analyze.

HOW TO WATCH: Broadcast, Streaming and Schedule Details for The Open

The Open Championship Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler to Win (+550 on BetMGM)

No surprise here, our model is giving Scottie Scheffler the best chance to win The 152nd Open Championship just like the books. The difference? We give him an 18.2% probability win while his +550 odds at BetMGM imply just 15.4% probability.

That's a nearly 3% edge worth betting. Scheffler is well-rested and dominating this season, thanks to his elite strokes gained, particularly off the Tee and on Approach.

Xander Schauffele to Win (+1200 on BetMGM)

If you got Xander when Dimers first revealed our projections for the tournament, you got him at +1400, an even better value. Still, he's our second-highest probability to win at 9.2%, a little over the books' second favorite, Rory McIlroy at 8.4%. His fair odds should be just +1000 according to our model, identifying an edge worth +200.

He picked up his first major victory this year and has contended throughout the weekend at nearly every event he's played in 2024.

Cameron Smith Top 20 (+175 on DraftKings)

Now we'll dive into some placement bets - consider a little parlay or round robin of these next few golfers.

LIV is town and that means Cam Smith gets a chance to hoist his second Claret Jug after winning the major back in 2022 at St. Andrews. He's had a solid year with LIV, featuring a pair of end place finishes and he contended with a T6 at The Masters. At +175, we're getting a nearly 6% edge on him to finish Top 20, with his +5000 odds to win a small value when compared to the others around him in the field.

Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 (+210 on BetMGM)

Next up is Hideki Matsuyama who is looking to rebound from his only missed cut of the entire year just last week. Overall, it's been a good year for the 11-year pro - he's got a win and five Top 10s including a 6th-place finish at the U.S. Open.

This week, we give him a 38.6% probability finish in the Top 20, a 3,4% edge against his +210 odds on offer at DraftKings.

Davis Thompson Top 20 (+300 on BetMGM)

Thompson won two weeks ago at the John Deere Classic, cashing out +2500 pre-tournament pick, but struggled in his follow-up, settling for a T46. It wasn't a poor weekend, but far off the contending scores. At his only major this year he finished T9 at the U.S. Open.

He gets a 31.3% probability of netting a Top 20 finish this weekend at Royal Troon for a 6.3% edge against his +300 odds on offer (imply just 35%). 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout Ladder Play (+400/+1000/+2500 on DraftKings)

The final way we're looking at the major is with a ladder play at South African golfer Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who is coming off a withdrawal at the Genesis Scottish Open. That might be why we're getting these odds, but the value is clear/

He's had a solid year that's netted him the 22nd-most FedExCup points thus far, managing three Top 10s, including a 4th-palce finish at the Memorial just a few weeks ago, and he's managed four other T20 or better finishes this year.

He's got value in each of his placements (plus a little sprinkle on his +17000 odds to win), so consider staggering across each of these markets:

• 7.1% for a Top 5 Finish (+2500) 
• 15.0% for a Top 10 Finish (+1000)
• 29.5% for a Top 20 Finish (+400)

To win, he gets only a 1.2% probability, but our model says he should be just +8000 instead. Not bad for a golfer ranked Top 10 in total stroked gained this season.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. With Dimers Pro, you can check out our full predictions for the The Open Championship to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Build Round Robins, Top 20 parlays and get round-by-round updates each day with Dimers Pro.

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

Can I bet on golf with Dimers?

No. There’s no golf bet slip on our site because we don’t take any golf bets ourselves. We’re the friend who gives you the best golf picks and predictions then tells you where and how to get the best golf sign up offers at the sportsbooks, so you can throw your golf bets down. That’s it!

When you click on one of our buttons or links in our golf content, you’re whisked away to DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, or one of the many other sportsbooks we work with.

Once you get there, you can join up to score a welcome bonus (up to $200!), and then get those golf bets down for yourself, but you’re betting on the golf with them, not us. Since you are never betting anything directly with us, we don’t have access to your personal information or sensitive financial info like credit card numbers.

It also means that despite our best efforts to confirm that a sports betting site still has that awesome golf sign up offer available, the best ones often disappear just as quickly as they appeared. We always take these offers down once we know they’re no longer available. We take our responsibility to provide up to date golf information very seriously.

Finally, Responsible Gambling is extremely important to us, so please remember that golf betting should be seen as a form of entertainment - adding to your enjoyment while watching from the course of the couch - not a side hustle or second income stream.

Sports Betting Deals Available This Week:

• Our guide to this week's Bet365 bonus code "DIMERS"
• Our guide to this week's DraftKings promo code
• Our guide to this week's FanDuel promo code

If Dimers doesn't take golf bets, then how do you make money?

Whenever you join a sportsbook mentioned in our golf picks and predictions across the website, or use one of our promo codes, we get a small commission for referring you. Don’t worry, though, this doesn’t affect you in any way at all. That’s a fee the sportsbook pays us as a thank-you for sending another golf bettor their way.

We’re always happy to help our readers troubleshoot any problems. Start with our About Us or Contact Us and if that doesn’t work for you, then you can always send us an email at contact@dimers.com. We’ll do our best to help you figure it out.

Dimers and golf betting

• Dimers, and online sports betting, are not scams – golf betting has been legal since May 2018.
• We give you the best golf picks and predictions, and tell you where to find the best sign up offers, but you don’t actually bet on golf with us.
• We do not collect sportsbook sign up or credit card information.
• We get a commission if you join a sportsbook through our golf content, buttons or links.
• We’re always happy to help you troubleshoot any issues. Just ask!

Dimers and Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.