PGA Golf Best Bets: The Memorial Tournament Winner Picks and Predictions

Time for some golf betting!

It's the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday on the schedule this week as we head to Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, OH. The big names are back and gearing up for the U.S. Open next week.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. As mentioned, we're heading to Muirfield Village for this signature event with a $20 million purse up for grabs.

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The Memorial Tournament Golf Betting Preview

Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has already returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark in 2024 and correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler's comeback at the RBC Heritage while he was +1000 to win.

Who Will Win the Memorial Tournament?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's the Memorial Tournament the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models. 

For access to every probability and projection beyond the Top 5 in each category, hit the Dimers Pro button below:

Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at the the Memorial Tournament

MORE: Dimer Pro's In-House Golf Rankings

The Memorial Tournament Best Bets

Xander Schauffele to Win (+900 on BetMGM)

Our second most-likely winner of the tournament, Xander Schauffele, gets a significant edge in his odds to upset Scottie Scheffler and bet the rest of the approximately 70-man field.

Having taken a break since clinching his first major title at the PGA Championship two weeks ago, Schauffele has flirted with wins more than nearly anyone else on TOUR - he has nine Top 10 finishes this year. He's yet to secure one at the Memorial, despite achieving five consecutive top 25 finishes there.

This week, our model projects Schauffele with a 14.0% probability to win, presenting us with a 4% edge against his odds of +900 (imply 10%). With our fair price much closer to +600, you can see the clear value.

Russell Henley to Win (+5000 on FanDuel)

A big favorite of the bot due to his often long odds, Henley is repeatedly disrespected by the books. He's 19th in total FedExCup Points, ranked 16th in the world and has four Top 10s this year, with three of those a T4 or solo 4th. 

He enters this tournament on a streak of T12, T10 and T23 and taking last week's event off. He's improved with every big tournament - cut at THE PLAYERS, T38 at Augusta and T23 at the PGA Championship.

Henley draws just a 2.4% probability to win, but that means he should be at +4000, while you can get him for +5000 right now. At a $10 bet, that's a $100 difference in profit. At +800 for a Top 5 and +320 for a Top 10, he's worth a look in placements as well, though his value dries up after the Top 10.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 20 (+240 on DraftKings)

A placement pick with some sweet value, South African golfer Christiaan Bezuidenhout is worth a throughout the placement markets, though we're focusing on his Top 20 here. Bezuidenhout gets a 33.3% probability to finish Top 20, which implies fair betting odds of +200. However, we can get him at +240 on DraftKings (implies 29.4%). That's just about a  4% edge.

For extra context, Bezuidenhout sits at 23rd in our overall projections and there's not one golfer with odds close to this above him for a Top 20 finish. Below him, you have to scroll down to the fringe of the Top 40 to find the next golfer with odds at this range or longer.

In his last seven events, he's secured better than a T20 in four of them, including a T9. He had just one such finish in his previous seven events to open the season, so he's in his best form of the year.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. With Dimers Pro, you can check out our full predictions for the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

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Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

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