PGA Golf Best Bets: Our Mexico Open at Vidanta Picks and Predictions

The PGA TOUR returns to Puerto Vallarta for the third straight year for the Mexico Open. We're looking at one of the weakest fields of any tournament we'll see all year, with nearly all of the PGA golfers from the OWGR Top 50 are taking this one off.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the Mexico Open, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. We're heading to Vidanta Vallarta for with an $8.1 million purse up for grabs.

Mexico Open Parlay: Our +1915 Head-to-Head Picks and Predictions

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Mexico Open Golf Betting Preview

Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has already returned an 80-1 winner in 2024.

Betting on these tournaments is a great way to take advantage of weekly promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at Fanatics, where you can earn a $100 bet match each day of the tournament and beyond, up to $1,000 total. Claim this offer here or via the card below!

Who Will Win the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Mexico Open, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models: 

For the third consecutive year, the PGA TOUR heads to Puerto Vallarta to play the Mexico Open. 

A Greg Norman-designed course, Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 that runs a little under 7,500 yards at 7,456 and features three par 5s. 

We've got a 132-player field this week, although with most of the best golfers in the world absent. Defending champ Tony Finau is unsurprisingly the favorite, though our model believes this is anyone's tournament, giving Finau just a 6.5% probability to win as the favorite.

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Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at the Mexico Open

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the 2024 Mexico Open

Tony Finau (+800 on DraftKings)

We start with a rare occurrence and not a bet that you should make, but one that you probably shouldn't.

Last year's champ and the 2022 runner-up Tony Finau is the books' favorite to win this tournament and our model agrees, though it's not nearly as high on him as the books are. Finau is unquestionably the best golfer in this field, but that rarely determines who wins every weekend.

With just a 6.5% probability to win this tournament, Finau is not a value play, just a bet on talent. Our model says he should be +1400 at worst for this to be a fair price as his +800 odds imply an 11.1% probability.

As always, DraftKings is offering a +300 odds surge so you can boost Finau's odds to +1100 and get him at an implies probability of around 8.3%, but we still say it's not quite good enough, but it's your best route if you want to back the defending champ pre-tournament.

Mark Hubbard (+5000 on FanDuel)

There is just one outright winner bet with what we'd call strong value on the board this weekend, and that's for Mark Hubbard to come out on top at +5000 odds. Hubbard finished T18 at Vidanta last year.

Our model projects him with a 3.5% probability to win, which is the third-highest by a slim margin. That's obviously not a very high percentage, but it is when you compare it to that which is implied by the odds, just 2%. That little 1.5% is the difference between +2700 and +5000, nearly double the value!

Hubbard hasn't been spectacular this year, but he's carded a T20 at the Farmers Insurance Open and finished T4 at the rain-shorted Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In a massively slimmed down field, he's as good a bet as any with this value.

Stephan Jaeger (+2500 on DraftKings with boost)

Our second recommended play is another one of our Top 5 most likely winners, but it requires using DraftKings' +300 boost to get him at a value worth making. 

At +2200, Stephan Jaeger has an implied probability of 4.4% to win the Mexico Open, a little higher than our 4.1% projection. If you add DraftKings' odds surge, you can get him at +2500, an ever-so-slight value above the 3.8% probability those odds become.

He's had success and struggles this year, but his T18 at the Sony open and T3 at Farmers indicate he's capable of competing throughout the weekend.

Best Placement Bets for the 2024 Mexico Open

In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's Mexico Open as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Mark Hubbard to Finish Top 5 (+1000 on DraftKings)

Let's buy ourselves a touch of insurance in case Hubbard is in contention but runs into trouble in Round 4 like he did when he finished T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

DimersBOT projects a 14.3% probability of Hubbard finishing Top 5 which calculates a fair price of +600. Instead, DraftKings is offering us +1000, which is equivalent to a 9% probability, a huge steal in the Top 5 market.

Michael Kim to Finish Top 20 (+240 on DraftKings)

Four event for Michael Kim so far this season have yielded a high as a T6 and one missed cut. Outside of those, he's finished T42 and T37. He's had a week to cool off since his MC at the WM Phoenix Open and our model gives 35.6% probability to finish in the Top 20. 

That calculates to fair odds of around +180, while he's currently +240 on DraftKings, which implies just 29.4%.

Aaron Baddeley to Finish Top 20 (+550 on FanDuel)

Australian golfer Aaron Baddeley gets a great value price according to our model. He gets a 24.4% probability to secure a Top 20 finish, which would make our fair odds just +310, presenting a clear steal. He's participated in three events in 2024, missing the cut once and finishing as high as T28 in Phoenix. His putting is as good as it comes in this field (2nd in SG) but his approach is bottom-tier, making him a volatile, yet valuable play here.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for the Mexico Open to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictionsfor every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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