PGA Golf Best Bets: Our Genesis Invitational Picks and Predictions

Another weather-affected tournament saw a marathon on Sunday at the WM Phoenix Open as Round 3 finished on the same Day as Round 4. It took a two-hole playoff to settle the winner between Charley Hoffman and Nick Taylor, before Taylor ultimately claimed victory. Our prediction was spot-on for our third-most likely winner, Sam Burns, who finished T-3.

Now, it's time to find our best bets for the Genesis Invitational this weekend.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the Genesis Invitational, identifying intriguing bets in the winner and placement markets. We're heading to Riviera Country Club in California for a tournament with a $10,000,000 purse up for grabs.

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Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has already returned an 80-1 winner in 2024.

Betting on these tournaments is a great way to take advantage of weekly promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets instantly. Bets will expire 7 days after issue, so don't wait on them!

Who Will Win the 2024 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Genesis Invitational, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models: 

Genesis Invitational Golf Betting Preview

We've got a loaded field,  albeit small at just 71 golfers, with just two of the Top-25 ranked golfers absent from this tournament (recent LIV defectors Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton). Tiger Woods will be making his 20224 debut at this event.

Riviera Country Club is a Par 71 that runs 7,322 yards, and has hosted the tournament since 1973. Notably, the two most recent champions, Rahm in '23 and Niemann in '22, have both joined LIV Golf since. Bubba Watson won this even three times between 2013 and 2018, also now with LIV.

A $20,000,000 purse is on the line, as well as 700 FedExCup points. Our model's favorite yet again, Scottie Scheffler, is still looking for his first win of the year.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the 2024 Genesis Invitational

Scottie Scheffler (+950 on DraftKings with boost)

We will continue to go back to the well with Scottie if we can continue to get value on him to win. And you won't find any value in his standalone odds of +650 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but like last week, we can turn him into a +EV play by way of their weekly +300 Odds Surge promo.

We can turn Scheffler from a +650 (13.3% implied probability) to a +950 play (9.5% probability). With our model favoring Scheffler at 11.9%, you're turning his overpriced odds into a value play, as we say he should be right around +750.

Through four events, Scheffler has finished inside the T6 or better three times and it's just a matter of time before he gets rolling again.

Collin Morikawa (+1800 on FanDuel)

Our fifth-most likely winner of the Genesis Invitational, Morikawa is one of just five golfers with at least a 5% chance to win this tournament according to DimersBOT. He's got a T5, a missed cut and a T14 so far this year, and his missed cut came at the Farmers Insurance Open with a -2.

He's not a massive value play, but there's a slim discrepancy between his odds and what our model says he should be priced at. +1800 implies a 5.3% probability, while our 5.6% probability suggests his odds should be a little shorter, closer to +1600.

For someone with a top 5 win probability, any slight value is worth a bet.

Russell Henley (+7000 on FanDuel)

Through three events this year, Henley has one T4 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii sandwiched between a T52 and T58. After a week off from the TOUR, can he find that top-end form?

His probability to win is very slim, clocking in at 2.2%, however it's his odds that make him a play. You may not realize it but when you get into longer odds, a slim change in percentage can make a big difference in the odds. In fact, 2.2% implies odds of +4400.Meanwhile, Henley is priced at +7000! While that's less than a 1% difference in probability, it's a $260 profit difference for a $10 bettor.

The slimmed-down field could be just what Henley needs to compete, though it means he'll have to hang with the best to do so. At +7000, he's worth a little sprinkle as a solid Day 1 performance would shorten his odds.

Best Placement Bets for the 2024 Genesis Invitational

In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's Genesis Invitational as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay to potentially rack up some serious profits.

Russell Henley to Finish Top 5 (+1100 on DraftKings)

It's a rare week where DimersBOT doesn't see value up and down the board in the placement market, largely due to the shorter odds in a slimmer field. However, eagle-eyed users who can spy the discrepancies between odds and probability will find a few plays worth a look.

As one of our best bets for outright winners, Russell Henley makes sense as a bit of a ladder play considering he's got an edge in the Top 5, 10 and 20 finish markets. We're going to recommend his biggest price here, as we're getting a nearly 4% edge against his 11.9% probability.

Wyndham Clark to Finish Top 10 (+350 on DraftKings)

Wyndham Clark is our 2024 darling. He's not been electric this year, mostly hovering around the middle of the pack without breaking into the Top 20, but his course-record 60 won him the weather-shortened Pebble Beach Pro-Am just two weeks ago, cashing our value play of +8000!

This past weekend, he was right in contention with the Top 10 before a brutal 75 on Day 4 dropped him to a T41 finish. DimersBOT likes him to contend yet again, with a 26.2% probability of a Top 10 result, 4% better than the 22.2% implied by his odds of +350. Adventurous bettors will be keen to drop a litttttle sprinkle on his +4500 odds to win, too.

Brian Harman to Finish Top 20 (+230 on DraftKings)

Another redux from Phoenix, Brian Harman gets the nod form DimersBOT to finish Top 20 at Riviera. Harman finished T5 and T18 to start the year before struggling in his past two events, however he continues to be a value play in the placement markets.

How good is the value on Harman this week? You have to go all the way down to Adam Schenk at 25.1% and +260 to find a golfer with longer odds, nearly 20% of the entire field is between them.

We give Harman a 33.6% probability to capture a Top 20 result, while his odds of +230 imply a 30.3% chance. That's a 3.3% edge, with our model saying he should be no better than +195.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for the Genesis Invitational to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

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