PGA Golf Best Bets: Our Cognizant Classic Picks and Predictions

After last week's massively slimmed down field, we see a good number of top golfers return, however the majority of the top-20 ranked players will again be absent when the PGA TOUR tees off for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the Cognizant Classic, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. We're heading to Palm Beach Gardens in Florida with a $9 million purse up for grabs.

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Cognizant Classic Golf Betting Preview

Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has already returned an 80-1 winner in 2024.

Betting on these tournaments is a great way to take advantage of weekly promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at Fanatics, where you can earn a $100 bet match each day of the tournament and beyond, up to $1,000 total. Claim this offer here or via the card below!

Who Will Win the 2024 Cognizant Classic?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Cognizant Classic, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models: 

One of the tougher courses of the PGA Schedule, we're golfing on the Champions Course at PGA National. It runs 7,147 yards as a par 71, with one notable change being the notoriously difficult par-4 10th hole, which has been extended by 20 yards and made a par 5.

We've got a huge field this week, with many top golfers once again sitting this one out. Just favorite Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick make an appearance form the OWGR top 10. Defending champion is Chris Kirk, who's fourth in the FedExCup Standings.

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Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at the Cognizant Classic

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the 2024 Cognizant Classic

Rory McIlroy (Up to +1000 on DraftKings)

The No.2 golfer in the world, Rory McIlroy is unsurprisingly the favorite to win this weekend, but we can still get value on him outright, which does come as a surprise.

McIlroy has played in just two events this season, finishing T24 at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. He draws a 14.1% win probability from our model at PGA National and is priced at +750 on BetMGM. That calculates to an implied probability of 11.8%, giving us a small edge as that means he should realistically be priced at about +600.

As with most PGA tournaments, DraftKings is offering a +300 odds surge to add to any golfer so while he's just +700 there, you can get him up to +1000 if you use the boost, making him an even stronger 5.1% +EV play. 

J.T. Poston (+3000 on DraftKings)

At first glance, Poston looks like just one golfer in a pool of many others with similar odds, but if you look deeper at our model's projections, we see some big-time value on a guy who's been golfing about as well as anyone this year.

Poston's been a workhorse, golfing in six events so far in 2024. Aside from one Missed Cut at the Phoenix Open, he hasn't finished worse than T20, with three top 10 finishes and as high as a T5. His 5% probability says that he should be +1900 in the outright winner market, yet he's at +3000 on DraftKings. That's a steal for the golfer who has the second-highest win probability according to DimersBOT.

Justin Rose (+6600 on BetMGM)

Our third top-value winner play is Englishman Justin Rose. Through four events, he's finished as high as T11 in his most recent outing at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, an event he won last year.

Now, he gets a 2.5% probability from our model to win at PGA National. That's not particularly high, but it's the discrepancy between us and the books that make him a play. At +6600, his odds imply a 1.5% probability, while our model says his odds should be much closer to +3900. So, while that 1% difference seems nominal, it's as $235 difference in profit for someone who bets five bucks on Rose to win.

Best Placement Bets for the 2024 Cognizant Classic

In addition to the outright winner picks with value, we've got a few placement bets to consider for this week's Cognizant Classic as well. As well as being value plays as single wagers, consider playing these in a parlay or round robin to potentially rack up some serious profits.

J.T. Poston to Finish Top 5 (+650 on DraftKings)

As we mentioned, Poston has been playing as well as anyone this year and has one such finish so far this season. He's continually flirted with the Top 10 and gets an 18.6% probability to finish in the Top 5 this weekend. At +650 on DraftKings, that buys us a 5.3% edge in value as he should be closer to +500.

This also gives us a touch of insurance in case he comes up just shy of the win, which is a common theme in our best placement picks.

Justin Rose to Finish Top 10 (+550 on BetMGM)

Coming up just shy of this mark in his last event with a T11, can Rose finish what he set out to do before rain cancelled Day 4 of the pebble Beach Pro-Am? Out model thinks so!

We've got him projected with a 20.6% probability to place in the top 10 and at odds of +550, that's another 5.3% edge in the placement market.

Denny McCarthy to Finish Top 20 (+230 on DraftKings)

One of DimersBOT's favorite golfers in placement props, American Denny McCarthy is our final recommended bet for the weekend. He draws a 35.5% probability from DimersBOT to finish Top 20, which suggests his odds should be +180.

Meanwhile, DraftKings has him at +230, another edge of approximately 5%. He's got three vents at T24, T26 and T22 this year and secured Top 20 or better fifteen times in 2022-23, so we know he's more than capable of making a run on any given weekend.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full predictions for the Cognizant Classic to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictionsfor every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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