PGA Golf Best Bets: Our Charles Schwab Challenge Winner Picks and Predictions

Safe to say the PGA Championship had it's far share of storylines. Scottie Scheffler got arrested due it a traffic mishap and carded his best second round in a major ever before a rough Day 3 stalled his plans. The fact that Xander Schauffele finally won his first major and that wasn't the lede should tell you everything.

We're going right back to the links this weekend with the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Forth Worth, Texas. While plenty of notable names are absent, a few are rolling right into the Lone Star State like Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Max Homa, to name a few.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the Charles Schwab Challenge, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. As mentioned, we're heading to Texas with a $9.1 million purse up for grabs.

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Charles Schwab Challenge Golf Betting Preview

Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best betson a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has already returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark in 2024 and correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler's comeback at the RBC Heritage while he was +1000 to win.

Who Will Win the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Charles Schwab Challenge, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models. 

For access to every probabilities and projection beyond the Top 5 in each category, hit the Dimers Pro button below:

Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at the Charles Schwab Challenge

MORE: Dimer Pro's In-House Golf Rankings

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler to Win (+280 on BetMGM)

The shortest odds we've ever recommended for a winner bet. Betting +280 on an outright winner from a field of over 100 golfers is not an easy bet to make, but we look purely at analytical data here and the data says Scheffler is the best bet to win.

There's no point in breaking down his game compared to the other golfers - he's the longtime World No. 1 for a reason, because he's better than everyone else.

At a 34.6 probability to win, Scheffler's fair odds are an absurdly short +190 according to our model, while his +280 odds imply 26.3%, identifying a significant 8.3% edge which is very high for a golf winner. If +280 is too rich for your blood, wait for a profit boost and get him live on Day 1, or consider parlaying him with one of our other top projected finishers to finish Top 20, but understand the increased risk.

Denny McCarthy to Win (+5500 on FanDuel)

Our next best bet to win the Charles Schwab Challenge is on Denny McCarthy as tasty odds of +5000. McCarthy is a talented golfer who looks poised to take the next step in his game and is regularly a DimersBOT favorite. He disappointed last week with a missed cut, although he was a +12000 longshot. He's got a pair of Top 10 finishes, including a playoff loss just a few weeks ago to Akshay Bhatia at the Valero Texas Open.

He gets a 3.2% probability from our model to win this weekend, and while that's small, it's the fourth-highest on the board and he gets double the odds of Max Homa (3.8%) just above him. Our fair price would be +3000 for McCarthy, meaning a $10 bettor is gaining $250 worth of potential profit by taking McCarthy at +5500.

McCarthy draws value in his full placement market as well, so look to his Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 finished for additional value plays.

Chris Kirk to Win (+6000 on BetMGM)

The last winner pick is one that you'll need to have a keen eye to pick up on, as we don't identify it as a traditional edge. That's because it's very slim in percentage, approximately only 0.5%. So, why is that value? Because at a 2.1% probability to win from our model, Kirk should be around +4700. That little 0.5% is a +1300 difference in the odds when they're this long.

Kirk opened up the entire PGA season with a win back in January at The Sentry and has one T10 and a pair of Top-20 finishes since, with his T10 and T16 coming in the past month. If he can get over his putting woes (168th in strokes gained), then there's no reason he can't contend.

Unlike McCarthy, Kirk's value drops off sharply after his winner odds, with the books giving him a fair price in placement markets, further illustrating the value you get for him to win at +6000.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. With Dimers Pro, you can check out our full predictions for the Charles Schwab Challenge to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

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Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictionsfor every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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