PGA Golf Best Bets: Genesis Scottish Open Winner Picks and Predictions

Time for our best golf bets of the week!

We've been on a roll lately, nailing the top contenders and we're fresh off calling a +2500 outright winner with Davis Thompson at the John Deere Classic.

This week, we're heading across the pond for the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Just about everyone but the World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will compete this weekend as a tune-up for The Open, our last major of the year, next week.

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Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the Genesis Scottish Open, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. As mentioned, we're heading to The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland with a $9 million purse up for grabs.

Be sure to check out our +1189 Scottish Open Matchups Parlay, too!

When the DimersBOT tells you to take the early value, that’s exactly what you do.

Davis Thompson +2500 ✅ https://t.co/YJ5uL8kX3r

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) July 7, 2024

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Genesis Scottish Open 2024 Golf Betting Preview

The Genesis Scottish Open will take place once again at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Designed by Tom Doak in 2007, this par 70, 7,237-yard course features fescue greens. This year marks the sixth consecutive time the Renaissance Club has hosted the tournament, 

All eyes will be on defending champion Rory McIlroy, who claimed the 2023 title in a thrilling finish, but is playing for the first time since his brutal finish at The U.S. Open. 

Make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark in 2024, then we correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler's comeback at the RBC Heritage when he was +1000 to win, and predicted Davis Thompson to win outright at the John Deere Classic at +2500.

Some winning slips by yours truly, courtesy of the DimersBOT's pre-tournament and live predictions.

Who Will Win The 2024 Genesis Scottish Open?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's Genesis Scottish Open, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models. 

For access to every probability and projection beyond the Top 5 in each category, hit the Dimers Pro button below our rankings.

Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at the the Genesis Scottish Open

Dimers' World Golf Rankings is our in-house approach to accurately ranking every player currently competing on the PGA Tour and are updated following each tournament.

While Dimers' World Golf Rankings system is separate to the Official World Golf Rankings, we believe our in-house rankings are more accurate due to the data points and multiple variables we analyze.

MORE: Dimers Pro's In-House Golf Rankings

2024 Genesis Scottish Open Best Bets

We don't usually preface this section like this, but we must this week. There are more edges than ever this week, so we're only highlighting a select few. Our Dimers Prousers have complete access to our full projections, so we implore you to use the Tournament Predictions tool to see all of our values plays this weekend.

Xander Schauffele to Win (+900 on DraftKings)

Our best bet to win the Genesis Scottish Open is on Xander Schauffele, the 2022 winner of the event. Schauffele is having a year most golfers would dream of. He has just two solo finishes outside the Top 20 this season with 11 Top 10s and six T5 or better, as well as one win - his first eve major victory at the 2024 PGA Championship

This week, he's our model's favorite, despite the fact that the books give that honor to defending champ and countryman Rory McIlroy. Schauffele gets a 15.3% probability to win, making his fair odds just +550, nearly Scottie Scheffler territory, while his +900 odds imply just 10%.

Collin Morikawa to Win (+1600 on DraftKings)

Next up is one of our model's highest-ranked golfers and a guy who has come through for us before this year, Collin Morikawa.

He's put together a very good year with six Top 10 finishes and the fourth-most FedExCup points, though he knows how to make a bettor sweat. His early season was marred by a run of missed cuts, T45 and T75 before he surged with a T3 at The Masters and not looked back since, finishing no worse than T16 in a solo event and three straight finishes at T4, 4 and 2nd in May.

He's played this event once - a missed cut in 2022. This weekend, he gets an 8.0% probability to win, making fair odds around +1100, making him a notable value given his +1600 odds at DraftKings.

He's also featured in our Head-to-Head Matchups parlay for the weekend.

Hideki Matsuyama to Win (+3500 on DraftKings)

Rounding out our Top 5 highest-projected winners is Hideki Matsuyama, who noy only gets value on his own, but illustrates the lack of value in the golfers just below him.

Matsuyama won at the previous Genesis-sponsored event on TOUR, the Genesis Invitational back in February. Fate, perhaps?

Since then, he's compiled the seventh-most FedExCup points this year, finishing inside the Top 10 four times, including at THE PLAYERS and the U.S. Open.

At +3500, his odds imply a 2.8% probability to win, while we give him 3.9%. That may seem small, but that 1.1% difference represents the difference between +3500 (the books) and our projection of +2500.

Corey Conners Top 5 (+1000 on DraftKings)

Our best placement value of the tournament is on Canadian Corey Conners to finish inside the Top 5. He's at 10-1 odds, but we give him a 14.2% probability to finish that high, and he's out eight-high projected winner and sits at +5500.

The fair odds for Conners would be just +600 according to our model, and you can get a little edge on him at +450for a Top 10 finish as well.

Denny McCarthy Top 10 (+700 on DraftKings)

Can Denny McCarthy repeat his John Deere Classic performance against a more competitive field? DimersBOT thinks so, giving him a 19.5% probability for a Top 10 finish. That makes fair odds of +400 for us.

McCarthy shows much promise but has only truly put it together a handful of times this year, coming off a T7, in addition to a T6 at the Wells Fargo and 2nd-place playoff finish at the Valero Texas Open. He's got a great putter but struggles on approach.

He's a guy worth a look for a ladder play this week if you're feeling adventurous, as our model identifies value in his numerous placements, as well as at +10000 odds to win with a 2.0% probability. 

Davis Thompson & Brian Harman Both Top 20 (+892 on DraftKings)

For our Top 20 picks, we're going to make a little two-leg parlay. You can play these guys on their own as they both present value, but let's have a little fun.

Davis Thompson just cashed a +2500 winner for us last week and gets a Top 10 win probability this week as well. He's got four Top 10s this year, three in his past three events, and three other Top 20s, plus two T21. He's at a 39.2% probability to grab Top 20 this week, fair odds of +150 against his book price of +220.

Brian Harman has three Top 10s this year, three other Top 20s and one T21. He finished T6 here last year en route to winning The Open the following week. Harman gets a 38.6% probability against his odds of +210.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. With Dimers Pro, you can check out our full predictions for the Genesis Scottish Open to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Build Round Robins, Top 20 parlays and get round-by-round updates each day with Dimers Pro.

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

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