PGA Golf Best Bets: FedEx St. Jude Championship Winner Picks and Tournament Predictions

And then there were 70.

Last week's Wyndham Championship was ravaged by weather for a disappointing result but we're looking ahead with three main elimination events on deck.

We went into the Olympics in great form - we were fresh off calling a +2500 outright winner with Davis Thompson at the John Deere Classicfor his first-ever win, before we predicted Xander Schauffele to win his second major at The Open and he delivered. We found a 4.5% edge on Scheffler to bring home the Gold and he went full-on Terminator mode to get it done.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. 70 golfers remain with the Top 50 moving on to the BMW Championship next week. We're heading to TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN with a $20 million purse up for grabs.

Xander Schauffele has captured victory at #TheOpen!

If you read our Best Bets article earlier this week, you’ve got a +1200 winning ticket ✅ pic.twitter.com/RtznF8zjt8

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) July 21, 2024

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2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Golf Betting Preview

We're hitting TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, a Par 70 that measures 7,243 yards for this week's action.

Make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that in addition to the wins above, has returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark and correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler's +1000 comeback at the RBC Heritage.

Who Will Win the FedEx St. Jude Championship in 2024?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's FedEx St. Jude Championship, the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models. 

For access to every probability and projection beyond the Top 5 in each category, hit the Dimers Pro button below.

Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Dimers' World Golf Rankings is our in-house approach to accurately ranking every player currently competing on the PGA Tour and are updated following each tournament.

While Dimers' World Golf Rankings system is separate to the Official World Golf Rankings, we believe our in-house rankings are more accurate due to the data points and multiple variables we analyze.

2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Bets

Xander Schauffele to Win (+800 on BetMGM)

Our top pick to win is our biggest edge of them all and our model's second favorite, Xander Schauffele, a two-time major winner in 2024.

This season, it's been Scottie Scheffler and everyone else, but you could argue Xander's been in his own second tier, with everyone but Scottie below him. He grabbed his first two major wins of his career, and a dozen Top 10 finishes, helping him coast to second place in the FedExCup Standings

Now, he's in position to push for the FedExCup title with 2,000 FedExCup points on the line as he trails Scottie Scheffler by a little over 1,900.

We give him a 14.4% probability to win, closer to Scottie Scheffler than anyone else is to himself as he has over double the probability of the next golfer Rory McIlroy and our fair odds for Xander would be +590, identifying a 3.3% edge.

Russell Henley to Win (+4000 on FanDuel)

Next up is a golfer our model regularly loves more than the books, Russell Henley. a win has eluded him this season, but he's got six Top 10s and landed just outside the Comcast Top 10 with the 13th-most FedExCup Points this year.

Two of his best finishes came in his past three events, both majors, with a 5th at The Open and a T7 at the U.S. Open and collected a T6 here last year. 

Our model projects him with a modest 3.1% probability to win, rounding out our Top 5, but against his odds of +4000 at FanDuel, we're getting an ice little edge. 0.7% may not seem like much, but it equates to a +900 difference between the books and us with a fair price of only +3100.

Alex Noren to Win (+12000 on FanDuel)

Our last two bets are on longshots and both are worth exploring in the placement markets, particularly Top 10 or Top 5 for some nice, juicy odds.

Swedish golfer Alex Noren sits close to the Top 50 elimination line at 42 in the FedExCup standings. He's had a decent year with a dozen Top 25 finishes and 3 Top 10s, but hasn't been able to put it together for a full weekend, as he held a share of the lead at the American Express yet finished just T25.

Now, he gets just a 1% chance to win this weekend. However, that makes his fair odds +10000, meaning a difference of $100 on a $5 bet between us and the books! For reference, he's just +8000 at BetMGM, so you can see huge value here. Consider a sprinkle here or on his Top 5 and Top 10 odds as well.

Taylor Pendrith to Win (+14000 on bet365)

Similar to Noren above, Taylor Pendrith is a longshot with a small probability yet another misprice. he's in a much better spot though, sitting at 27th and looking strong to make the TOUR Championship after picking up his first career win earlier this year at THE CJ CUP.

He's fresh off a pair of Top 5 finishes, though he'll find this weekend's competition much tougher than those fields. Still, confidence is key on the course.

He didn't make the playoffs last year, but in the 2021-22 season, he reached the BMW Championship and finished with a T8.

At 0.9% probability but +14000 odds on bet365, we're getting a 0.2% edge, though that represents the difference between those odds and +11000, an even bigger value odds-wise than on Noren. Similarly, consider his Top 5 or Top 10 placements

These aren't necessarily the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. With Dimers Pro, you can check out our full predictions for the FedEx St. Jude Championship to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

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